Wake wezwa nge Umthetho ka-Okun? Uma kwenzeka ungazi, lokhu kusuka ngo-1982 futhi umakhi walokhu kwakungu-Arthur Okun, usomnotho waseMelika owakhombisa ukuhlangana okungafani phakathi kwezinga lokukhula komnotho nezinga lokungasebenzi.
Kepha kukhona okwengeziwe okwaziyo ngalo mthetho? Iqiniso ukuthi liyasebenza, ngakho-ke sikukhuthaza ukuthi uqhubeke ufunda futhi uthole umthetho ochaza izinto eziningi ezihlobene nomnotho nokusweleka kwemisebenzi noma ukudala amathuba emisebenzi.
Uyini uMthetho ka-Okun
Umthetho ka-Okun umqondo owachazwa ngawo-60 yisazi sezomnotho saseMelika u-Arthur Okun. Lokhu kuthole ubudlelwano phakathi kwezinga labantu abangasebenzi nokukhiqizwa kwezwe. Lokhu kuvele kushicilelwe ku-athikili, i- "Potential GNP: Kukala Kwayo Nokubaluleka Kwayo."
Kuyo, u-Okun wathi, uma amazinga emisebenzi ezogcinwa, umnotho bekufanele ukhule phakathi kuka-2,6 no-3% minyaka yonke. Uma kungaphumelelanga, lokho bekuzokwandisa ukungasebenzi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kwaveza ukuthi, uma izwe likwazile ukugcina ukuthi u-3% wokukhula komnotho, ukusweleka kwemisebenzi kuzohlala kuzinzile, kepha ukuze kuncishiswe, bekudingeka ukuthi kukhuliswe amaphuzu amabili wamaphesenti ngakunye kokuntuleka kwemisebenzi obekumele kuncishiswe.
Ongase ungazi ukuthi lo "mthetho" awukwazi ukufakazelwa. Isazi sezomnotho sisebenzise imininingwane kusuka ngo-1950 futhi sise-United States kuphela, sakha lo mbono sisebenzisa kuphela isilinganiso sokungasebenzi esiphakathi kuka-3 no-7,5%. Ngaphandle kwalokhu, iqiniso ukuthi imithetho u-Arthur Okun ayikhiphile ibilungile, yingakho isasetshenziswa emazweni amaningi.
Ngamanye amagama, umthetho ka-Okun usitshela ukuthi uma umnotho wezwe ukhula kuzosho ukuthi kuzofanele kuqashwe abasebenzi abaningi ngoba kuzodingeka abasebenzi abaningi. Lokhu kuzothinta ukungasebenzi, kunciphise. Futhi kunalokho; uma kunenkinga emnothweni, kuzodingeka abasebenzi abambalwa, okuzokhulisa ukungasebenzi.
Iyini ifomula yomthetho ka-Okun
La Ifomula yomthetho ka-Okun Ingabe lokhu:
? Y / Y = k - c? U
Lokhu akunakwenzeka ukukuqonda, kepha uma sikutshela ukuthi inani ngalinye lisho ukuthini, sizothola:
- Y: ukwehluka komkhiqizo emnothweni. Ngamanye amagama, umehluko phakathi kwe-GDP yemvelo ne-GDP yangempela.
- Y: yi-GDP yangempela.
- k: kuyiphesenti lonyaka lokukhula komkhiqizo.
- c: isici esiphathelene noshintsho ekuswelekeni kwemisebenzi nokwehluka komkhiqizo.
- u: shintsha kwizinga lokungasebenzi. Lokho, umehluko phakathi kwesilinganiso sangempela sokungasebenzi nesilinganiso semvelo.
Uyini umthetho ka-Okun?
Ngaphandle kwalokho esike sakhuluma ngakho phambilini, iqiniso ukuthi umthetho ka-Okun uyithuluzi elibaluleke kakhulu. Futhi ukuthi kuvumela ukubikezela izitayela phakathi kwe-GDP yangempela nokusweleka kwemisebenzi. Yini enye, isetshenziselwa ukuhlola ukuthi izindleko zokungasebenzi zizoba yini.
Manje, yize sithi kubaluleke kakhulu, iqiniso ukuthi imininingwane etholakele, uma iqhathaniswa nezinombolo ezisezweni langempela, ayilungile. Kungani? Ochwepheshe bathi lokhu kubizwa nge- "Okun coefficient."
Enye yezinkinga zalo mthetho ukuthi uma amazinga esikhathi eside, imiphumela ihlanekezelwa futhi inamaphutha (yingakho isikhathi esifushane singaba nezinga eliphakeme lokunemba).
Ngakho-ke kuhle noma kubi? Ingabe iyayifeza injongo yayo? Iqiniso ukuthi yebo, kepha ngama-nuances. Imininingwane kuphela eyamukelekayo futhi isetshenziswe ngabahlaziyi kuphela lapho kubhekwe ukuhlaziya izitayela zesikhathi esifushane phakathi kwe-GDP yangempela nokusweleka kwemisebenzi. Kodwa-ke, uma kuyisikhathi eside, izinto ziyashintsha.
Kungani iziphatha ngendlela ehlukile phakathi kwamazwe
Cabanga amazwe amabili anedatha efanayo. Kujwayelekile ukucabanga ukuthi, uma usebenzisa ifomula yomthetho ka-Okun, imiphumela izofana. Kepha kuthiwani uma sithi ungakwenzi?
I-Los Amazwe, yize enedatha efanayo nezinhlaka zezikhungo, anokuhluka. Futhi kungenxa yalokhu okulandelayo:
Imihlomulo yokungasebenzi
Cabanga ukuthi lapho ufuna umsebenzi, unikezwa inzuzo yokungasebenzi. Leyo mali ingaba ncane, kepha futhi ingaba nkulu, idale abantu ukuthi "bajwayele" ukuthola imali bengenzi lutho futhi ekugcineni bazofuna umsebenzi omncane.
Isikhashana
Lokhu akubhekiseli kukodwa esikhathini, kepha kubhekiswe ekuziphatheni okwesikhashana kwezivumelwano. Lapho kwenziwa izinkontileka eziningi zesikhashana, eziqala neziphela, okuwukuphela kwento edalwayo ngukuthi zikhona izibalo eziphawulekayo uma kukhulunywa ngokucekela phansi nokwakha.
Futhi izothinta ifomula, ikakhulukazi kwi-GDP kanye nezinga lokungasebenzi.
Imithetho yezabasebenzi
Akungabazeki ukuthi imithetho iyinkemba esika nhlangothi zombili. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, zisiza ukuvikela abasebenzi. Kepha zidala nokuthi izinga lokungasebenzi lifake umjikelezo wezomnotho. Lokho izindleko zokudubula, uma ziphansi, kwenza izinkampani ziqashe abantu abaningi ngokungacabangi, ngemisebenzi ethile.
Isidingo sangaphandle
Ngokomthetho ka-Okun, Lapho umnotho wezwe uncike emkhakheni wezangaphandle, uvame ukuba nezinkinga ezimbalwa kunokungasebenzi ukuncipha.
Izinkinga ekukhiqizeni nasekuhlukaniseni
Cabanga ukuthi imizamo iqondiswe emsebenzini owodwa. Manje, esikhundleni esisodwa, unezingu-10 lapho uzizwa ukhiqiza kakhulu kusiphi isimo? Into ejwayelekile kunazo zonke ukuthi uma uzinikezela entweni eyodwa, usebenza ngokukhethekile kuyo. Kepha uma kukhona okuningi, izinto ziyashintsha.
Kuyacaca ukuthi Umthetho ka-Okun uyithuluzi elihle lezomnotho kanye ne-macroeconomics. Kepha kufanele ithathwe ngohlamvu lukasawoti ngoba imiphumela ayihlali ingokoqobo, kokubili esikhathini esifushane nesikhathi eside. Kungakho ezinye izinhlobo zezinto ezingaba nomthelela kufanele zibhekwe. Ubuwazi lo mthetho phambilini? Ngabe kukhona ukungabaza obekungakacaceli kuwe?