Ukutshala imali ngegolide maqondana nokwehla kwamandla emali nokunikezwa kwemali

Ukutshala imali kwigolide kuyasivikela ekwehleni kwamandla emali nasekungaqinisekini kwesikhashana kwezomnotho

Iningi lama-stock indices emhlabeni wonke selithole lonke noma ingxenye yalo, abanye baze basetha amarekhodi akamuva. Izizathu ezehlela kithi yizibikezelo zokukhula okujwayelekile kwe-GDP phakathi kwamazwe, kufaka phakathi umuthi wokugoma, ukusimama ngokushesha, ukuthi ubudlelwane bezohwebo phakathi kwamazwe buzothuthuka, njalonjalo ohlwini olude. Kodwa-ke, ingabe sekuyekile ukuba nenzuzo futhi isikhathi sokutshala imali ngegolide esedlule?

Esinye sezisekelo ezithandwa kakhulu enginaso mayelana negolide ukuthi kuyisiphephelo esihle ekulweni nemali. Ngenkathi imikhawulo ikhona, abatshalizimali abaningi nezimenenja babheka ukuthi kuzokwenzekani esikhathini esizayo futhi banikeze incazelo yabo ngokunyuka kwegolide. Abanye bayaqhubeka nokumvikela, yize elahlekelwe ngaphezu kuka-10% kokuphakama kwakhe. Ngabe banephutha noma yinto eyothatha isikhathi eside ukufika? Noma kunjalo, ukuba ne-ace up sleeve yakho akuyona neze into embi, futhi sibonile ukunyukela egolide ngabatshalizimali sonke esibaziyo ngisho nakwabanye ababengeke batshale imali kulo.

Ukutshala imali ngegolide, inkinga yokuhlobana

wazi kanjani ukuthi yisiphi isikhathi esihle sokutshala imali ngegolide

Izikhathi eziningi ngizwe abantu abaningi behlanganisa igolide nokwehla kwamandla emali. Abanye abantu basola indlela abaziphatha ngayo kulokho okwenzeka emakethe. Kukhona labo abavikela lelo golide eliziphatha ngokungafani nokulinganiswa kwenkomba yedola. Ngokufingqa, yize kungenjalo nhlobo, iqiniso ukuthi bonke labo bantu engibazwile bebelungile futhi hhayi ngasikhathi sinye.

Isiphetho kuphela engingasifinyelela mathupha ukuthi zonke izimo ezichazwe ngenhla ziyahlangana ngasikhathi sinye. Ngakho-ke igolide, elibhekene nezikhathi zokungaqiniseki, ubunzima, noma ukwehla kwamandla emali kuvame (kepha hhayi njalo) ukubona intengo yalo iguqulwa. Ukucaphuna okuzoba nentshisekelo kule nsimbi ngabatshalizimali, izikhungo namabhange.

Ukuze senze lokhu, sizobona izici eziyinhloko ezingathonya intengo yakho.

Igolide namandla emali

Igrafu yokwehla kwamandla emali e-United States yekhulu leminyaka elidlule. Ukwehla kwamandla emali eminyakeni eyi-100 eyedlule

Ngaphambi kokubeka ishadi legolide, ngangifuna ukubeka phambili ukwehla kwamandla emali e-United States. Njengoba sibona, sinezici ezithile ezifanele. Lokhu kubalwa kwenombolo okulandelayo ukukugcina engqondweni.

  1. Ukwehla kwemali. Ibhokisi eliphuzi. Amashumi eminyaka ama-20 kanye nama-30. Ngalesi sikhathi, singabona ukuthi ukwehla kwe-deflation kuvele kanjani.
  2. Ukwehla kwamandla emali kukhulu kuno-10%. Amabhokisi aluhlaza. Sinezikhathi ezi-3. Ukugcizelela izinkathi kusukela ekuqaleni nokuphela kweminyaka ngeziqongo eziphakeme kakhulu.
  3. Ukwehla kwamandla emali ngaphansi kuka-5%. Sinezigodi ezintathu ezinkulu. Owokuqala wabo ungowephuzu lokuqala, lelo le-Deflation.

Kwenzekani lapho intengo yegolide ishintshelwa ukwehla kwamandla emali?

Ishadi legolide elilungisiwe lokwehla kwamandla emali. Izikhathi ezinhle kakhulu zokutshala imali ngegolide

Imininingwane etholwe kusuka ku- amadinga

Ngenxa yokwehla kwamandla emali, amanani entengo yazo zonke izimpahla avame ukukhuphuka ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Igolide alihlukile, futhi ngenxa yalesi sizathu leli grafu elingenhla lilungiswe ukwehla kwamandla emali. Okusho ukuthi, yiliphi inani i-ounce legolide ebelizoba nalo esikhathini esedlule ngokwenani ledola namuhla. Uma manje sibheka ishadi elijwayelekile legolide (elingadalulwanga ukuze lingagcini ngokweqile), sizobona ukuphindwa kwalo okukhulu. Sizohlola amaphuzu abaluleke kakhulu ngakho.

  • Izikhathi zokwehla kwamandla emali. Izikhathi ngaphambi kokuqothuka kohlelo okuvunyelwene ngalo eBretton Woods, igolide likhombisa ukwehla kwenani lalo langaphakathi lapho kwakukhona ukwehla kwamandla emali. Noma kunjalo, Ngohlelo lwezomnotho lwamazinga okushintshashintsha eguquguqukayo, ukwehla kwamandla emali kuhambisana nenani elikhuphukayo legolide. Kumele futhi kungezwe ukuthi uhlelo lweBretton Woods lwaphulwa ngokushicilelwa okukhulu kwamadola okuxhasa iMpi YeVietnam. Ukulandela izimfuno ezivela eFrance naseGreat Britain zokuguqula izinqolobane zabo zamadola zibe yigolide futhi kwehlise izinqolobane zegolide zaseMelika. Umongo, okuyikho konke, bewuhlukile kunowamanje.
  • Izikhathi zokuchazwa. Ngalezi zikhathi igolide lenyuka ngenani. Kodwa-ke, ngemuva kwenkinga yezezimali edalwe ukuwa kweLehman Brothers kube nesikhathi esifushane lapho kuvela khona ukwehla kwegolide negolide lenyuka ngenani. Kodwa-ke, isizathu salokhu kukhuphuka sinesizathu sokuthi sashukunyiswa yizinkinga zomnotho kanye nokungathembi okukhulu ngohlelo lwebhange kunokwehliswa uqobo.
  • Izikhathi zokwehla kwamandla emali ngokulingene. Ngemuva kokuqhuma kwebhola le-dot-com, igolide lenze kahle, kepha alizange lenze kahle eminyakeni eyedlule. Lesi sizathu kungenzeka sikhuthazwe ekufuneni igolide njengempahla ephephile.

Iziphetho zegolide nge-inflation

Uma intengo yegolide inyuka ngamaphesenti ngaphezu kwe-inflation, kunenzuzo ukutshala kuyo (lesi sitatimende "ngezimbiza"!). Yize kuyiqiniso ukuthi ukuphela kwesiphephelo kuhle ekugcineni, izifiso zomtshali zimali kungenzeka zingabi kude kakhulu ngesikhathi. Ngakho-ke, ukutshala imali ngegolide ngezikhathi zezinguquko ezinamandla kuyindlela enhle. Uma futhi u-intuit lapho lolu shintsho luzokwenzeka futhi utshala imali phambilini, imbuyiselo engatholwa yanelisa kakhulu.

Isiphetho ngukuthi ebusweni bezikhathi zokwehla kwamandla emali kakhulu, igolide lingaba yisiphephelo esihle. Ngaphezu kwalokho, umongo lapho umnotho womhlaba utholakala khona uthanda intshisekelo enkulu kuwo. Okwamanje Asibhekene nezimo zokwehla kwamandla emali okuphezulu, kepha sibhekene nesimo somnotho esingalindelekile semiphumela yokugcina yenkinga ekhona.

I-athikili ehlobene:
Ukulinganiswa Kwegolide Esiliva

IMisa Lezemali Iyiphi indima oyithuthukisayo yokutshala imali kwigolide?

Isamba semali esihlinzekwa ngamadola sikhuphukile ngerekhodi ngo-2020

Imininingwane etholwe kusuka ku- l kabusha.stlouisfed.org

Ukunikezwa kwemali, kumacroeconomics, yiyo yonke imali etholakalayo yokuthenga izimpahla, izinsizakalo noma izibambiso zokonga. Kutholakala ngokufaka imali ezandleni zomphakathi ngaphandle kokungena emabhange (izikweletu kanye nezinhlamvu zemali) nezinqolobane zebhange. Isamba salezi zinto ezimbili yisisekelo semali (sizoxoxa ngokuhamba kwesikhathi). Isisekelo Semali esiphindaphindwe ngesiphindaphindeli semali yiMonetary Mass.

Egrafini yokuqala uzobona ukuthi iMali Yezimali inyuke kanjani kakhulu. NgoJanuwari 2020 kwakungu-15 trillion dollars, njengamanje lesi sibalo senyuke safinyelela ku-3 trillion dollars. IMisa leMali ngamadola lenyuke ngo-3 trillion ngo-8, okungukuthi, ngama-2020%!

Ngokuya ngobudlelwano nokwehla kwamandla emali, inqubomgomo yokwenza imali ithi kukhona ukuxhumana phakathi kwenani lemali elisakazwayo namanani emnothweni. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, umbono we-Keynesian uthi akukho ukuxhumana phakathi kwamanani emali nokuhlinzekwa kwemali, ikakhulukazi lapho umnotho ukhula. Ngakho-ke ukuzama ukuthola okunye, ake sibheke ubudlelwano nesisekelo semali.

Isilinganiselo segolide ne-Monetary Base

isisekelo semali asizange siyeke ukwanda eminyakeni eyi-13 edlule

Imininingwane etholwe ku-red.stlouisfed.org

Siyabona ukuthi kanjani iMonetary Base ikhuphuke kakhulu. Kakhulu njengomphumela wezinqubomgomo "zemali enophephela emhlane".

Uma ubona leli grafu wazi ukuthi kunzima ukuqhubeka kanjena isikhathi eside ngaphandle kwezinguquko. Noma mhlawumbe sekubonwe izinto ezingajwayelekile kakhulu. Ngalesi sizathu, uma kungekho ukunyuka kwamanani nangemva kokungakwazi ukuthola okuningi ngobudlelwano begolide ne-inflation, mhlawumbe ukufuna ubudlelwano nesisekelo semali bekungeke kulandeke kangako. (Ukhumbula ukuthi asikwazi ukudweba ubudlelwano phakathi kwamanani emali nesisekelo semali, njengoba kusho uKeynes).

Igrafu elandelayo kulindeleke ukuthi iveze okwengeziwe. Kusikhombisa isilinganiso phakathi kwegolide nesisekelo semali.

Igrafu yesilinganiso segolide esisezingeni lemali ukwazi ukuthi igolide lehlisiwe noma cha

Igrafu etholwe ku- macrotrends.net

Amaphuzu amaningana angagqanyiswa:

  1. Njengoba ubona, ukuphrinta imali enkulu kubangele ukuthi isilinganiso sehle kakhulu phakathi kuka-1960 no-1970 (ngenxa yempi yaseVietnam, njengoba kuxoxwe ekuqaleni).
  2. Ukwehla kwamandla emali kuqhuba intengo yegolide eminyakeni elandelayo, kodwa Ukungaqiniseki kuqhubekile futhi kwasiza ukukhuphuka kwentengo yayo, ifinyelela iziqongo eziphakeme kakhulu esilinganisweni. (Kuzofanele uphindaphinde i-x10 futhi ngaphezulu intengo yamanje yegolide ukuthola isilinganiso esingu-5 njengoba sifike ngaso).
  3. Ukwanda kwesisekelo semali selokhu inkinga yezimali ivelile (futhi kungalawuleki) ukwehla kwesilinganiso esingabonwanga ngaphambili.
  4. Okwamanje, thengisa isilinganiso esiphakeme segolide kwisisekelo semali, kube inzuzo enkulu kakhulu. Ngendlela efanayo, ukutshala igolide kwehlisa isilinganiso, izinzuzo ezinkulu zesikhathi esizayo ekunikezile.

Iziphetho zegolide ezinesisekelo semali

Kuphela uma igolide lilinganiswe kabusha kusuka kumazinga wamanje ukufanisa isisekelo semali esivele sikhona, indlela eya phezulu ebingaba nayo ingaba ngaphezu kuka-100%. Uma i-Ratio ithambekele ku-1, kungaba ngenxa yokwesaba ukwehla kwamandla emali, izingqinamba ezinamandla ezihambisana nezikhathi zokungaqiniseki, njll., Singazithola singekho esimweni lapho igolide lehliswa khona. Kuyindida ngoba intengo yayo ifinyelele phezulu ngaso sonke isikhathi muva nje, kepha kanjalo nesisekelo semali.

Iziphetho zokugcina zokuthi ingabe kuyindlela enhle yokutshala imali kwigolide

Ayikho imodeli eyodwa yokulinganisa ukunquma isikhathi esiqondile sokutshala igolide. Kodwa-ke, sikwazile ukuthola ukuthi kanjani ukwehla kwamandla emali, isisekelo semali kanye nobunzima kuthinta ku-. Umongo wonke, ngamafuphi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, umnotho uyindlela yokuziphatha, futhi umtshali-zimali omuhle manje kufanele azibuze ukuthi sikuphi. Futhi ukuthi kungenzeka kakhulu ukuthi kwenzeke.


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Ikheli lakho le ngeke ishicilelwe. Ezidingekayo ibhalwe nge *

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  1. Ubhekele imininingwane: Miguel Ángel Gatón
  2. Inhloso yedatha: Lawula Ugaxekile, ukuphathwa kwamazwana.
  3. Ukusemthethweni: Imvume yakho
  4. Ukuxhumana kwemininingwane: Imininingwane ngeke idluliselwe kubantu besithathu ngaphandle kwesibopho esisemthethweni.
  5. Isitoreji sedatha: Idatabase ebanjwe yi-Occentus Networks (EU)
  6. Amalungelo: Nganoma yisiphi isikhathi ungakhawulela, uthole futhi ususe imininingwane yakho.