Izinsuku ezimbalwa manje, sidatshukelwe yimpi iRussia enqume ukuyiqala phezu kwe-Ukraine. Kunzima kakhulu kimina (iseva) ukukhuluma ngemithelela yezomnotho lokhu okuzoba nayo, ngicabanga nje ngempilo nokulahlekelwa kwabantu okwenzekayo njengamanje, kwenza ifindo likasofasilahlane esiswini. Kodwa-ke, futhi ngokucabangela ukuthi isihloko sebhulogi sikhuluma ngezomnotho kanye nezezimali, ngizozama ukuchaza umthelela wezomnotho ongase ube umphumela.
Ngaphambi kokuba ngiqale, mangisho ukuthi izinto eziningi ezenzeka namuhla zinemvelaphi yazo kudala. Selokhu kwahlakazwa izwe elaliyiSoviet Union, indima ephambili yeRussia emkhakheni wezombangazwe emhlabeni isinciphe kakhulu. Abanye ababambiqhaza kule ngxabano ukukhathazeka kweRussia mayelana nokwanda kwe-NATO, kanye nethuba lokuthi babone eRussia ukuthi i-Ukraine izoba yingxenye. Ekugcineni, kunama-nuances amaningi kangangokuthi ukulindela ukuthi imuphi umthelela wangempela ongase ube khona akuqinisekile ngandlela-thile, hhayi okungenani ngoba izinto zishintsha ngokushesha. Isibonelo, izindaba zakamuva, ungafaki amabhange athile aseRussia ohlelweni lwe-SWIFT lomhlaba wonke ukuvimbela ukuthengiselana ukuthi kwenziwe.
Mayelana nomnotho waseRussia
Umnotho waseRussia uvuleke kakhulu.a, ngokuphambene nalokho abantu abaningi abakukholelwayo. Eqinisweni, ama-46% e-GDP yawo asekelwe ekuthengisweni kwamanye amazwe. Ingenye yezinto ezihamba phambili ezithumela kwamanye amazwe emhlabeni ngokwemibandela kawoyela negesi, okungeyesine neyokuqala ngokulandelana kwazo. Russia ithumela ngaphandle ama-43% ezinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle yegesi yomhlaba, i-Europe njengendawo eyinhloko eya kuyo, ethenga ngaphezudlwana kuka-70% wegesi izwe eliwuthumela kwamanye amazwe.
Imiphi imiphumela engaba khona ngegesi?
Naphezu kwenani elikhulu legesi i-Europe elithenga ngayo evela eRussia, libalelwa ku-37% wesamba esiphelele sokungenisa. Noma kunjalo, engxenyeni enkulu yeMpumalanga Yurophu futhi ikakhulukazi iJalimane, igesi evela eRussia ibalulekile ukuze kugcinwe ijubane lokuphila nomnotho. Ukunikezwa kwegesi okuphansi kungakhuphula amanani zisuka njes, ukukhulisa izindleko zemizi nezamabhizinisi, okuzokwenza amabhizinisi amaningi anciphe kancane, amanye angeke aze enze inzuzo ukuqhubeka. Sesivele sikwazile ukwenza lesi simo emikhakheni ehlukene phakathi nonyaka odlule ngenxa yenkinga kagesi.
Futhi ngamafutha?
I-Russia, kanye neSaudi Arabia kanye ne-United States, ingelinye labakhiqizi bakawoyela abakhulu kakhulu emhlabeni. Eqinisweni, ikhiqiza imiphongolo kawoyela eyizigidi eziyi-10 nsuku zonke. Emhlabeni, kudliwa imiphongolo eyizigidi eziyi-5 ngosuku, okusho ukuthi iRussia ikhiqiza u-100% wamafutha emhlabeni.
Ukushoda kuka-2, 3 noma 4% emhlabeni jikelele kungaveza ukwenyuka okuphezulu kakhulu kwentengo kawoyela. Njengoba kwenzeka ngo-2008, lapho amanani afinyelela ku-$150 emgqonyeni lapho ngonyaka odlule ayecishe abe ngu-$70. Ukube ukushoda bekukukhudlwana, ukwenyuka kwentengo kungaba phezulu ngokwedlulele.
Umthelela we-boomerang wezigwebo eRussia
Enye yezinhloso ezilandelwa ngokujezisa iRussia wukudala inkinga enkulu kwezomnotho kuyona ukuphendula ukuhlasela iRussia eqondise e-Ukraine. Kodwa-ke, ukuxhumana phakathi kokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kanye nokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe phakathi kweYurophu neRussia kukhulu ngokwanele ukuze kuphele imiphumela yako ukushaya umnotho wasentshonalanga nakakhulu. Futhi ngemiphumela emnothweni wase-US.
Ilindele lesi simo, iMoscow yaqala ukudayisela iChina u-15% wegesi yayo lapho, ngaphezu kwalokho, umongameli wayo uXi Jinping, “ogcina imininingwane yakhe” ngokwenzeka e-Ukraine, ethembise emasontweni ambalwa edlule ukuthi uzoyiphinda kabili impahla yakhe yaseRussia ayithengile. . Lokhu kutholwa okukhulu kuzokwenziwa ngokwakhiwa kwelinye ishubhu elingaphansi komhlaba. Ngale ndlela, izoqinisekisa ukuhlinzekwa kwempahla yamasu njengempahla yezimboni nezobuchwepheshe.
Ngale Kwegesi Nowoyela, ezinye izinto zokusetshenziswa
Mhlawumbe ngenxa yokwenyuka kwentengo yamandla eYurophu, ukunaka kuqondiswe ekwenyukeni kwegesi namafutha. Ngaphezu kokuba iRussia, njengoba sesishilo, omunye wabakhiqizi abakhulu nabathumela ngaphandle. Kodwa akuzona zonke izinto ezigcina lapho, ziningi izinsimbi ukuthi ukungqubuzana kungakhuphula amanani azo. Kokubili i-iron, i-aluminium, i-nickel, noma i-palladium, iRussia engumkhiqizi oyinhloko wezimoto zakamuva futhi ezidingekayo ezimotweni, zizobona amanani azo enyuka kakhulu.
Ukolweni, ummbila namafutha kabhekilanga, lapha Zombili iRussia ne-Ukraine ziyizinsimbi ezimbili zomhlaba. Ukungqubuzana kanye nezijeziso, kanye namandla aphansi okukhiqiza ngaphandle kwalowo wezohwebo, kungadala ukwenyuka kwamanani alezi zinto zokusetshenziswa kanye nokudla okuvela kuzo. Lokhu kuyinto engathinta cishe wonke umuntu, ngoba sonke kufanele sidle. I-Russia ingumkhiqizi wesine ngobukhulu kakolweni emhlabeni, kanti i-Ukraine ingeyesikhombisa. Phakathi kwabo, benza cishe ama-20% okukhiqizwa kukakolweni emhlabeni.
Kulolu hlobo lwemakethe, njengemakethe yokudla, lapho ukukhiqizwa kwehliswa ngo-3 noma 5% kuphela, ukukhuphuka kwentengo kungaphinda kabili. Akekho oyeka ukudla, futhi ukushoda ekukhiqizeni kunganyakazisa lezi zinhlobo zezimakethe kakhulu. Lesi yisizathu sokuthi kungani ukwanda okukhulu kangaka kubonakala emakethe yezimpahla, futhi ngisho nangoFebhuwari 24, amanani abe neziqongo eziphakeme kakhulu (amadijithi aphindwe kabili) ngosuku olulodwa.
Enye imakethe ebalulekile ekamanyolo. I-Russia ingenye yabakhiqizi abakhulu be-Potassium, futhi umanyolo we-potassium sekunezinyanga uthola ukunyuka kwamanani abo. Kanye ne-Ukraine, lokhu kungqubuzana kuzokwenza kuphela umanyolo ubize kakhulu, ezizodluliselwa emkhakheni wezolimo, zikhuphule izindleko zokukhiqiza nalapho zizothinta nakanjani umthengi.
Athini amabhange amakhulu ngamanani enzalo?
Besilindele ukunyuka kwezinga lenzalo izinyanga ezimbalwa ngenxa yokwenyuka okungapheli kokwehla kwamandla emali. Kodwa-ke, basanda kumemezela ukuthi ukunyuka kwezinga uma kubhekene noshintsho kungazelelwe kulesi simo esikhona kuzoba ngaphambi kwesikhathi, futhi kungase kuphazamise umnotho. Ukuze ukuhamba ngezinyawo kuzohlehliswa isikhathi eside.
Lesi simo sokululama kancane ngemva kwe-covid nokuma kokugcina kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali, siphinde sibhebhethekise izipoki ze-stagflation. Futhi, isimo singase sishintshe ezinsukwini ezizayo. Izimakethe zikhuphuke ngalolu suku lokugcina lwangoLwesihlanu, kubonakala sengathi izingxoxo zokungqubuzana kulindeleke.
Okubonakala kungenakugwema ngokuphelele ekugcineni ukuthi i-GDP yamazwe aseYurophu ngokuvamile ngeke inyuke ngendlela eyokwenyuka ngayo amandla emali, okubangela ukuwohloka kwamandla okuthenga. Ngokuqondene nokuthi kungase kube khona yini eminye imiphumela yezomnotho, noma uma eminye yayo ingeke yenzeke ngokungathi sína kangako, kuyinto esiyoyibona njengoba isimo sixazululwa, noma okungenani, yilokho sonke esithembayo.