Uma izimakethe ze-equity zizibonakalisa ngokuthize okwamanje, ngenxa yemiphumela ye-coronavirus, kungenxa yokungazethembi kwazo okwedlulele. Kuze kube seqophelweni lokuthi isikhathi sokuhweba ama-indices angakwazisa ngo-4% futhi ngosuku olulandelayo angashiywa efanayo. Ngale ndlela, kuyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu ukusebenzela abatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi, ikakhulukazi uma befuna ukukhomba amagama athe xaxa. Ngaphandle kwesimo esichaziwe ezimakethe zamasheya emhlabeni jikelele, ngaphandle kwesikhathi esifushane futhi ngenxa yalokho kuhloswe ngemisebenzi yokuhweba edinga omakhenikha abahlukahlukene ekuhambeni kwabo.
Ngaphakathi kwale panorama enzima kakhulu izimakethe zezimali ezikhona njengamanje, kuyithuba lokubheka ukuthi kuyini ukungazinzi ezimakethe zezimali okuyikho ngempela. Ngoba leli qhinga lokutshala imali lichazwa kumaphesenti futhi libalwa njengokuchezuka okubhaliswe yimpahla (amasheya, izimali, njll.) Maqondana nesilinganiso sentengo yomlando wayo esikhathini esithile. Ngomehluko ophawuleka kakhulu kuseshini yokuhweba phakathi kwenani layo eliphakeme nelincane futhi okungaphezulu kokujwayelekile kulezi zimo.
Ukuze usebenze ezimakethe zamasheya ngokungazethembi, akungabazeki ukuthi umuntu kufanele abe nokufunda okukhulu kulolu hlobo lwemisebenzi. Akubona bonke abatshalizimali abangavula izikhundla esimweni salezi zici ngoba angalahlekelwa yimali eningi endleleni emsebenzini ngamunye. Kunalokho, kunalokho, ukuthi kudinga amakhono acace bha ngakubasebenzisi emakethe yamasheya ukuzama ukwenza imali yabo etholakalayo ngalezo zikhathi ezikhethekile ezinikezwa izimakethe zezimali. Kuphi, futhi ukuze usiqonde kangcono, noma yini ingenzeka ngalelo banga lokwehluka kumanani entengo yezimali.
Ukuguquguquka kwemakethe yamasheya: izizathu
Umphumela wokugcina Ucwaningo lwe-University of Michigan Ngokumangazayo, iphesenti labaphendulayo ababona ikusasa elithembisayo lomcebo wabo kungakapheli iminyaka engu-5 lifinyelele kuma-high-time amasha. Umthelela ekuzweleni komkhankaso omkhulu wokukhishwa kwemali we-Fed ubonakala uphumelela ngokwamandla ayo okukholisa (onolwazi oluncane).
Ukukhethwa kweSpain kungenye yezimpawu ezibuthakathaka emnothweni omkhulu, lapho ithole khona okuncane kakhulu emhlanganweni we-post-crash-COVID nakulawo olahlekelwe kakhulu kulezi zinsuku ezisanda kwedlula. Kuyiqiniso ukuthi usufinyelele ezingeni lokuqala lokuwa futhi manje usungathatha umbandela osizweni oluncane oluvela ezimakethe zokulingana emhlabeni. Ngokuphambene nalokho, uma ukuthengisa kukhula, kuzodingeka ukuqapha ngokucophelela izinkomba zokusekelwa, uma kuzishaya ngamanani okuvala kuzovula isimo esikhathaza ngempela nesimnyama esikhathini esimaphakathi nesikhathi eside.
Kungani utshala imali ekuguquguqukeni?
Ukukuqonda kahle ukuthi kuyini ukungaziphathi kahle nokuthi amathuluzi okuguquguquka aziphatha kanjani kubalulekile ukuze uzulazule ngempumelelo futhi utshale imali endaweni ekhulayo yokungazinzi. Ezinye izimpahla ezinjengokungazinzi zinganikeza abatshalizimali umthombo obalulekile wokuhlukahluka kotshalo-mali, kusize ukwandisa ukusebenza kwephothifoliyo, futhi kunikeze ukuxhumana okuphansi nezimpahla zendabuko.
Kuyini ukuguquguquka? Okokuqala, ake siqonde ukuthi abantu basho ukuthini uma kukhulunywa ngokuguquguquka.
Ukuguquguquka Kwangempela
Ukuguquguquka okubonakalayo kuyisilinganiso sokuguquguquka okungokomlando. Lokhu ngukungazami okwenzeke esikhathini esedlule, kepha ukubala kuncike esikhathini esibekiwe, okungadida. Isibonelo, ukungaziphathi kahle kungabhekisa ekubuyisweni kwansuku zonke ezinsukwini eziyishumi zokugcina, ukubuya kwanyanga zonke konyaka odlule, noma imbuyiselo yonyaka yeminyaka eyishumi edlule. Abahwebi bavame ukucaphuna ukungazinzi okwenziwe minyaka yonke kwezinsuku ezingamashumi amathathu.
Kusho isimo esishubile
Ukungazinzi okushiwo ukulindela kwemakethe yezinketho zokuguquguquka esikhathini esizayo, okuvame ukuvezwa ngokwemigomo yonyaka. Ngenkathi ukuguquguquka okubonakalayo kunqunywa ekubuyiselweni kwamanani angokomlando, isimo esishubile esibekiwe sikhona futhi sibalwa kusukela kuzintengo zokukhetha. Lesi yisilinganiso sokushintshashintsha kwesisekelo se-VIX Index, kanye nesilinganiso abantu ababheka ukuhweba ngaso.
Yini i-VIX?
Inkomba ye-VIX yisilinganiso esithandwa kakhulu sokuguquguquka okusikiselwe. Ngokuqondile, ukuguquguquka okushiwo kuphothifoliyo yezinketho zezinkomba zezinsuku ezingama-500 ze-S & P 30. Imvamisa ibizwa ngokuthi "inkomba yokwesaba" noma imane ithi "i-VIX," inkomba imele ukulindelwa kwemakethe kokungazinzi kwesitoko. Ngenkathi inkomba ye-VIX uqobo ingathengiseki, ikusasa lenkomba linikeza abatshalizimali nama-hedger ukuvezwa okungaphelele enkombeni. Ikusasa le-VIX limelela ukuqagela okuhle kakhulu okuhlangene emakethe mayelana nenani lenkomba ye-VIX ekuvuthweni.
Kubuyiswa kuphi? Izinzuzo zokutshala imali ekuguquguqukeni zivela emithonjeni emibili ehlukene kepha ehlobene:
I-Volatility Risk Premium (VRP)
Iphrimiyamu yobungozi bokungazinzi i-premium ekhokhwa yi-hedgers ngaphezulu kokungazami kokuthola izinketho zezinkomba ze-S & P 500. Iphrimiyamu itholakala kubahedeni abakhokhela ukuvikela amaphothifoliyo abo, futhi ibonakala ngomehluko phakathi kwentengo lapho izinketho zidayiswa khona (okushiwo ukungaziphathi kahle) kanye nokuguquguquka i-S & P 500 ekugcineni ekubonayo (ukuqaphela ukungaziphathi kahle).
I-Futures Risk Premium (i-FRP)
I-VIX yesikhathi esizayo yobungozi be-premium yi-premium eyengeziwe okhokhela ama-hedgers ikusasa le-VIX ngaphezulu kwenkomba ye-VIX uqobo. Le phrimiyamu kaningi ibizwa ngokuthi "indawo", futhi ingabonakala kuthrendi yesikhathi esizayo se-VIX yokuhweba nge-premium ku-VIX Index.
Ukutshala imali ekuguquguqukeni kuyindlela yokuthengisa umshuwalense owengeziwe. Ukutshala imali ekuguquguqukeni akufanele kudidaniswe nokubiyela okuguquguqukayo. Njengoba nje ukhokha amaphrimiyamu omshuwalense ukuvikela ikhaya lakho ekulimaleni, ababambiqhaza bemakethe bakhokha amaphrimiyamu okuguquguquka ukuze bavikele ekuphahlekeni kwemakethe. Njengezinkampani zomshuwalense, abatshalizimali abangazethembi bangahlala bevuna le premium.
Kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuthi izinkampani zomshuwalense nazo ziyakhokha ngemuva kwezehlakalo ezimbi, futhi abatshalizimali enkundleni yokuguquguquka bangabhekana nokwehla okufanayo ngesikhathi sokuphakama kwezintaba. Ngalesi sizathu, ukutshala imali ekuguquguqukeni kufanele kubhekwe kuphela kusuka ekubukeni kwesikhathi eside futhi njengokuhlukahluka kumaphothifoliyo wendabuko. Njengezinkampani zomshuwalense, abatshalizimali abangaguquki bathatha ubungozi besikhashana ukuze bavune iphrimiyamu yengozi yesikhathi eside.
Phatha ubungozi
Njengoba igama liphakamisa, ukubuyiswa kwesimo sokuguquguquka kungaba okuguquguqukayo ngezikhathi zezinxushunxushu zemakethe, futhi ukuphathwa kahle kobungozi kubalulekile ekuphumeleleni kotshalomali. Kanye nokuhlaziywa okujulile kokuhlaziywa nobuchwepheshe, nanka amaphuzu abalulekile okufanele uwagcine engqondweni:
Gcina umbono wesikhathi eside
Ukutshala imali ekuguquguqukeni akusilo uhlelo lokuceba ngokushesha. Isigaba sefa esinikezela ngengozi ethakazelisayo nembuyiselo ebuyayo. Njenganoma isiphi isigaba sefa, kufanele sibekwe ngokucophelela ekunikezelweni kwempahla yakho futhi sikhishelwe ochwepheshe uma ungaqapheli njalo.
Hlukanisa kahle
Ngaphezu kokwabiwa kwempahla okuhlukahlukene, ukwehlukanisa utshalomali lwakho olungaguquki ngokusebenzisa izakhiwo zesikhathi, imikhiqizo yokuguquguquka, amasu okuguquguquka, kanye ne-geographies kungasiza ekubuyiseleni okuhle futhi kuthuthukise ukulungiswa kwakho okulungiswe ngobungozi.
Yiba nomdlandla
Ukugcina i-premium yengozi yokungazinzi kanye ne-premium yengcuphe yesikhathi esizayo, kubalulekile ukuhlala uhlelekile, ukukala ukuvezwa kwakho kahle, futhi uzimisele ukushintshela kukheshi kaningi kaningi.
Ukuqhamuka komhlaba jikelele kwe-COVID-19 kuthumele izimakethe zamasheya zomhlaba ezinxushunxushwini. Ngokuncipha okukhulu okulandelwa ngama-bounces amakhulu usuku nosuku, ukungazethembi sekuyinto ekhona njalo ukuthi abatshalizimali kumele bayiphathe.
Abatshalizimali abaningi bafuna izindlela zokuguqula isimo esishubile sibe yinzuzo. I-CBOE Volatility Index, eyaziwa nangokuthi i-VIX, isibe yindlela esemqoka yokuthi abanye abatshalizimali bazizwa bethuka kanjani, kepha abatshalizimali basebenzisa ibhentshimakhi ngokuzikhandla njengengxenye yamasu abo okutshala imali. Okulandelayo, sizobona okuningi nge-VIX nokuthi kungani kufanele uqonde indima engayidlala kuphothifoliyo yakho.
Ukuhweba i-VIX
I-CBOE Volatility Index ihlola izimakethe zokukhetha ukuthola ukuthi bangakanani ababambiqhaza bemakethe abangazethembi abalindele esikhathini esizayo esiseduze. Ngokubheka izinketho ezahlukahlukene nezintengo zazo, uyakwazi ukubala inombolo abatshalizimali abayisebenzisa ngokuphelele ukuqondisa ukuhweba kwabo kokukhetha. Ukuphakama kwenombolo, kulindeleke ukuthi abatshalizimali abangazethembi balindele.
Kodwa-ke, akudingeki ukuthi ube ngumhwebi ongakhetha kukho ukuze uthole imininingwane ebalulekile evela ku-VIX. Abanye abatshalizimali babiza i-VIX i-Fear Index, ngoba ijwayele ukukhuphuka ngesikhathi sokwehla kwezimakethe futhi yehle ngezikhathi ezingcono ezimakethe zamasheya.
Amafomu okutshalwa kwezimali ku-VIX
Ngokwengeziwe, abatshalizimali bathole izindlela zokwenza imali ngqo ngokunyakaza kwe-CBOE Volatility Index. I-iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ethengiswa obala esidlangalaleni ifuna ukulandela umkhondo we-VIX ngokungena kuzinkontileka zesikhathi esizayo eziboshelwe ebhentshini lokungazinzi, futhi kusukela ngoFebhuwari 20 kuya kuMashi 13, sekuphindwe kathathu.
Uma unolaka futhi uthanda ukudlala okuyingozi, ungathola ukuvezwa okuningi ku-VIX. I-ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures inezikhathi ezingaphezu kwezingu-1,5 esikhathini esifanayo, ngoba inenani lentengo elifuna ukuhlinzeka ngokuvezwa okuxutshiwe kwezikhathi eziyi-XNUMX ukunyakaza esikhathini esizayo se-VIX.
Okufanele kwaziwe yibo bonke abatshalizimali abangazethembi ngeshwa, kunezingozi eziningi lapho utshala imali ekuguquguqukeni. Kubandakanya:
Ukuba ohlangothini olungalungile lokuhweba ngokungaziphathi kahle kungalimaza iphothifoliyo yakho. Isibonelo, i-ProShares Short VIX Short-term Futures yenzelwe ukuhambela phezulu lapho i-VIX ihambela phansi. Ilahlekelwe ngaphezu kwesigamu senani layo phakathi kukaFebhuwari 20 noMashi 13, futhi ingabona ukulahleka okukhulu kakhulu uma ukungazami kwama-spikes kuqhubeka.
Ukutshalwa kwemali kokuguquguquka kwenzelwe ukuba kube okwesikhashana, kanti izimbuyiselo zihambisana nezinguquko zansuku zonke ku-VIX. Isikhathi eside, ukuba nokutshalwa kwemali okuhambisana nokuntengantenga kube ukugembula okubi. Umkhiqizo we-iPath simo esishubile, ngokwesibonelo, ulahlekelwe yimali minyaka yonke kusuka ngo-2009 kuya ku-2017, uthumele inzuzo encane ngo-2018, wase wehliswa yizingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu ngo-2019.
Ngenxa yokwakheka kwabo, kokubili ukutshalwa kwezimali okudala nokufushane kokuguquguquka kungalahlekelwa inani ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Ukushintshwa okukhulu kungahamba kunoma iyiphi indlela, futhi kungashesha futhi kuthukuthele. Ekuqaleni kuka-2018, konke okwakuthatha kwakuwusuku olulodwa lokukhuphuka kokungazami ukuqeda isikhwama esifushane sokuphazamiseka.
Ingabe kufanelekile engozini?
Zonke lezi zingozi kunzima ukuzibona lapho amanani ezitshalomali ezixhumene nokwehla enyuka usuku nosuku. Kodwa-ke, njengamasheya amaningi nama-ETF aduma isikhathi esifushane ngaphambi kokubuyela emhlabeni, ukutshala imali ekuguquguqukeni kuvame ukuletha izinkathi ezinde zokulahlekelwa ezifakwe ngezikhathi ezithile kuphela zenkazimulo njengoba sibonile muva nje.
Ngalesi sikhathi, iningi lokuzuza okuvela ku-ETFs sekuvele kufakwe amanani abo. Isimo esishubile singaqhubeka sanda. Kodwa-ke, lapho izimakethe zehla, abatshalizimali abangazethembi bazothola indlela enzima yokuthi izimali zabo zingabuyela kanjani emuva ngokushesha, noma ngabe amasheya aphezulu akhombisa inani lawo lesikhathi eside.
Igama VIX isifinyezo se- "volatility index." Ukubalwa kwangempela kuyinkimbinkimbi, kepha inhloso eyisisekelo ukukala ukuthi abatshalizimali abangazethembi balindele ukubona malini ku-S & P 500 Index ezinsukwini ezingama-30 ezizayo, ngokuya ngamanani wezinketho ze-S & P 500 Index. Amasheya Azolile, i-VIX Phansi; Lapho belindele izinguquko ezinkulu emakethe, i-VIX iya phezulu.
Ngezikhathi zesiphithiphithi esikhulu semakethe, i-VIX ithande ukukhula. Ishadi elingenhla likhombisa ukuthi inkomba ye-VIX inyuke kancane njengoba imakethe isondela esiqongweni se-tech bubble ngasekupheleni kweminyaka yama-1990, yehliswa ngesikhathi sokukhula okungaguquki sika-2003-2007, yaphakama ngesikhathi sobunzima besikweletu ngo-2008 nasengxenyeni yesibili 2011, nokwenyuka okurekhodiwe ekuqaleni nasekupheleni kuka-2018. Ngenxa yaleli phethini lokuziphatha, i-VIX kwesinye isikhathi yaziwa ngokuthi "inkomba yokwesaba" - lapho ababambiqhaza bemakethe bekhathazekile ngemakethe, i-VIX ivame ukwenyuka.
I-Volatility iyinjini yokusebenza engancikile kumazinga wenzalo, izinzuzo, noma ukwazisa ngentengo, okwenza kukhange kakhulu kubatshalizimali abafuna eminye imithombo yokubuyisa.
Imikhiqizo yokuguquguquka inokuhlobana okuqinile okungalungile namanani ngakho-ke engeza inani njengabahlukanisi bephothifoliyo. Lokho kuhlangana okungekuhle kokungazinzi kwesitoko akusebenzi nje kuphela ezimakethe zokulingana, njengoba amaphethini afanayo atholakala emakethe yezikweletu. Ama-spikes ekusakazeni kwesikweletu avame ukuqondana nokwanda kokushintshashintsha kokulingana.
Ngaphezu kokuba ngumhlukanisi wephothifoliyo, ukuguquguquka kungavikela ezingozini ezithile. Isibonelo, umtshali-zimali onomnikazi wesitoko noma inkomba yesikhathi esizayo engathinteka ngokuhle noma kabi kakhulu ngesimemezelo esizayo angagcina isitoko noma ikusasa futhi abeke ingozi ngokungazinzi.
Futhi njengoba kuchazwe ezincwadini, abahlukanisi bendabuko banikela ngamathuba ambalwa wokuhlukahluka ngesikhathi senhlekelele yezezimali. Ukungazinzi kwe-equity, okumelwe yi-VIX, kungasebenza njengesihlukanisi semvelo, njengoba ukuhlangana kwayo okungekuhle namanani nezinye izigaba zamafa kuyanda ngesikhathi senhlekelele. I-VIX Futures inikezela ngezinzuzo zokwehlukahlukana ngqo lapho zidingeka kakhulu. Njengoba ukwazi ukubona ngezansi, ukuhweba ngokungazethembi kungaba nomvuzo omkhulu. Futhi, ngokomlando, singathola ukuthi amasu atshala imali ekuguquguqukeni akhiqize imbuyiselo ephezulu ngokulahlekelwa okuphansi uma kuqhathaniswa nezikhundla zamasheya zendabuko.