Njengoba sibhekene nesimo sokuwohloka komnotho emhlabeni jikelele, kuyiqiniso ukuthi kuyamangaza ukuthi izimakethe zezimali zezimali azikaze zikwenze lokho. Uma kungenjalo, ngokuphambene nalokho, ezimweni eziningi izinkomba hlala phezulu okuheha impela abatshalizimali abathile abancane nabaphakathi. Bayazibuza ukuthi ingabe imakethe yamasheya ikwehlisa ngempela yini ukwehla komnotho osekuvele kukhona kwamanye amazwe anezimoto emnothweni wamazwe omhlaba.
Kulesi simo jikelele, kufanele kukhunjulwe ukuthi ezinkingeni zemakethe yamasheya zihlala zivela ngokuwa kwenani. Noma mhlawumbe kungenzeka ukuthi lesi simo singaba yibhomu abatshalizimali abangakaliboni okwamanje futhi okungaba kubi kakhulu kwizintshisekelo zabo emkhakheni wokutshala imali. Ngokwezinga lokuthi umthelela wabo omkhulu ukuthi bakwazi xhuma ezikhundleni zabo emakethe yamasheya isikhathi eside. Lokho, kude kakhulu nentengo yokuthenga.
Ngalesi sizathu, kubaluleke kakhulu ukugqamisa ukuthi isimo sokwehla kwamandla omnotho siyabonakala ekulinganisweni kwezimpahla zezimali. Kepha ngendlela encane kakhulu futhi lokho akuthokozelwa ngabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi. Ngalo mqondo, inkomba ekhethiwe yezimali zaseSpain, i-Ibex 35, yehle kuphela ngo-3% ezinyangeni eziyisithupha ezedlule. Futhi emazingeni afanayo kwezinye izindawo zomhlaba ezibalulekile ezikhethekile. Kulokho okungenye yezimpawu mayelana nokuthi kukhona okwenzekayo emnothweni wamazwe omhlaba.
Ukwehla komnotho
Mayelana neSpain, kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi Ibhange laseSpain uphawula ukuthi umnotho waseSpain nokusetshenziswa kwangasese akusenakho ukumelana obekulindelwe ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezedlule. Kuze kube sezingeni lokuthi ezinsukwini ezimbalwa ezedlule kumenyezelwe ushintsho oluqinile lokuya kokuya kweshumi ezibikezelweni zayo, futhi seluxwayise ukwehla okuphawulekayo ekwakhiweni kwamathuba emisebenzi, okukhule ngesigamu kusukela ngoMeyi. Esikhundleni sokwenyuka ngo-2,4% kwe-GDP ayekulindele kulo nyaka, ukuze ancike kusengaphambili kuphela ngo-2% kuphela.
Okwe-2020 nango-2021, ibhizinisi eliyinhloko libikezela a ukukhula kuka-1,7% no-1,6%, ngokulandelana kokuzivocavoca ngakunye. Lokho kusho ukuthi, sekuvele kungaphansi kwe-2% futhi kunenkambiso eyehlayo ekugcineni engaba nomthelela ezimakethe zezimali zokulingana zikazwelonke. Yize okwamanje ingakaqoqwa ngamandla ayo onke futhi lokhu kuyiqiniso lokuthi abatshalizimali abathengisayo kufanele bakunake kusuka manje. Lapho enye yezinkinobho isezingeni lama-euro angama-9.000 yi-Ibex 35, womabili ohlangothini olulodwa noma kolunye.
Khuphuka enkombeni yokwesaba
Esinye sezimpawu ezinikezwa yimakethe yezimali ukuthi VIX, okuthiwa inkomba yokwesaba, ibhekane nokukhula okuphawulekayo ezinyangeni ezisanda kwedlula. Lesi yisexwayiso esicacile sokuthi kungenzeka ukuthi ukunyakaza kwe-bearish kubangelwa yisimo esibi somnotho. Ngenkathi ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuntengantenga kwe-VIX nakho kukhuphukile ngokuhambisana okuthile, nokwazisa kwansuku zonke okungaphezu kuka-2%, amaphesenti angazange abonwe kusukela ngonyaka wezi-2013. Lesi yisibalo esingeke sibonakale kubatshalizimali abancane nabadala.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, inkomba yokwesaba ikhombisa ukuthi izimakethe zokulingana zingawela ezinyangeni ezizayo. Esimweni esilindele a hhayi isimo esihle ezimakethe zamasheya futhi lesi sici kumele siqaphe ebusweni bokuthi kungenzeka yini kusukela manje. Ngeke kube nokukhetha ngaphandle kokwazi ukuvela kwe-VIX ukukhombisa ukuthi umzuzu wokungena emakethe yamasheya noma cha. Njengethuluzi lokugcina izintshisekelo zethu futhi ikakhulukazi imali yethu eyenzelwe imakethe yamasheya.
Ubuthakathaka kuma-cyclicals
Okunye okuphawuliwe izimakethe zezimali ezinikezwayo nokuthi kulokhu idatha efaneleke kakhulu ubuthakathaka bamanani abhekwe njengokujikeleza. Ngamanye amagama, lezo ezincike kumjikelezo wezomnotho futhi ezisebenza kangcono kunezinye ezikhathini zezomnotho ezibanzi. Ngenkathi kuphambene, isimilo sayo esibi kakhulu senzeka ezikhathini zokwehla komnotho. Izinkampani zensimbi ziyisibonelo esicacile salesi sigaba samanani akhetheke kakhulu, njengoba kunjalo kuxhunyaniswe nale mijikelezo yezomnotho, njengaleyo yokwenziwa kwezimoto.
Awu, la masheya kwehle ezinyangeni ezedlule futhi kungaba esinye isibonakaliso mayelana nalokho okungenzeka emnothweni wamazwe omhlaba. Njengoba kwenzekile ezikhathini zezici ezifanayo ezikhule kwamanye amashumi eminyaka. Ngakho-ke, kuzoba enye idatha esizoyibheka kusukela manje kuqhubeke uma sifuna ukusebenza ezimakethe zezimali ngokuthula okukhulu kwengqondo. Ngoba uma izimakethe zezezimali zithatha isimo sokuwa komnotho, akukho kungabaza ukuthi amanani omkhakha we-cyclical azoba ngamanye athinteka kakhulu ezimakethe zikazwelonke nangaphandle kwemingcele yethu.
Ukungazinzi okwengeziwe
Lesi ngesinye sezexwayiso esingaba naso ukukhombisa ukuthi izimakethe zamasheya azolanda isimo somnotho esibi kakhulu. Ngoba kuzokhiqiza ifayela le- ukunyuka okukhulu ezimakethe zamasheya nokuthi kuzobonakala kakhulu kubatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi ezinyangeni ezizayo. Lapho okungcono kakhulu esingakwenza ukuhlehlisa izikhundla kulezi zimakethe zezimali kunikezwe ubungozi bokuthi imisebenzi yemakethe yamasheya ingasebenza.
Lokhu kukhuphuka kwenzuzo kungaba ngezinye zezimpawu ezisitshela ukuthi sibhekene nokwehla okukhulu komnotho. Kepha okwamanje akufakiwe enanini lentengo yamasheya ezinkampani ezibhalwe ezimakethe zezimali. Futhi lokho kubonakala eqinisweni lokuthi izinguquko ziya ngokuya zishaya, ngokwanda nokwanda okungaphezu kuka-3% noma ngisho no-4%. Lokho wukuthi, ukumema abatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi ukuthi benze imisebenzi yokuhweba noma kuseshini efanayo yokuhweba. Njengoba kungabonakala ezinhlelweni zokugcina ezenzeka ezimakethe zikazwelonke nalabo abangaphandle kwemingcele yethu.
Emazingeni ohlangothini
Umphumela wayo yonke le miphumela ukuthi ama-stock indices awunawo umkhuba ochaziwe ezinyangeni ezedlule. Ngezinye izikhathi iyakhuphuka futhi ngezinye izikhathi i-bearish, kepha noma kunjalo kunzima kakhulu ukusebenza emakethe yamasheya. Lokhu kuwuphawu lobunikazi olutholakala ezinyangeni eziyishumi nambili ezedlule nokuthi ngandlela thile kuphonononge inamba enhle yabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi ezimakethe zezimali. Lokho ukusho ukuthi, asazi ukuthi yini esingayilindela kanye nengozi esobala engaba khona nganoma yisiphi isikhathi ukudonsela phansi okukhulu ekuhwebaneni kwamasheya kwamazwe omhlaba. Kufika ezingeni lapho singathola khona ukubambeka kuzimali.
Ngenkathi ngakolunye uhlangothi, singekhohlwe ukuthi kubonakala sengathi lesi yisikhathi sokulinda okuthile okubalulekile okungenzeka kwenzeke kusukela manje kuqhubeke. Ngokombono, kungashiwo ukuthi ukwehla komnotho akwenzi isaphulelo ngentengo yamasheya ezinkampani ezithengiswa esidlangalaleni. Okuthile okungadala ukwesaba okukhulu ukungena ezimakethe zokulingana engxenyeni enkulu yabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi. Kuze kube seqophelweni lokuthi umbono wokutshalwa kwemali kungenzeka ungabi yinhle eminyakeni embalwa ezayo.
Akunasimo esihle
Ngalesi simo esijwayelekile, ukwesekwa kwemali inani elingeziwe elingaletha izinzuzo eziningi kubathengisi. Uma kungenjalo, kunalokho, kufanele wesabe okubi kakhulu futhi kungcono khetha ezinye izindlela zokutshala imali ezivikelayo noma ezilondolozayo. Isibonelo, ezinye izimali zokutshala imali ezihlanganisa lokhu kutshalwa kwemali nezinye izimpahla zezezimali. Njengendlela yokwenza ngcono ibhalansi ye-akhawunti yethu yokonga. Ukugwema izimo ezingafuneki ezingafika noma kunini nokunye okuningi ngemininingwane emisha ye-macro evela kulezi zinsuku.
Ngenkathi ekugcineni, kuyadingeka futhi ukugcizelela ukuthi izingibe ezinamandla zingakhiwa ukuze abatshalizimali abathengisayo bangawa phambi kwezandla eziqinile ezimakethe zezezimali. Lokhu kube ngenye yezingozi ezinkulu kakhulu esingabanjwa kuzo futhi ngokungangabazeki, kungasenza silahlekelwe yimali eningi ekusebenzeni okwenziwayo. Futhi lokho kungaxazululwa ngochungechunge lwezinyathelo zokuzivikela esingazisebenzisa ukwenza ukugwema izimo ezingafuneki kuyo yonke imibono. Okuwukuthi ekugcineni kosuku okufanele sikwenze ezikhathini ezinezinkinga ezimakethe zamasheya emhlabeni jikelele.