Imakethe yamasheya ihlala iyithuluzi elibi lamasheya emikhakha yasebhange ngemuva kokunwetshwa kwe i-coronavirus futhi eziningi zazo sezivele zidayisa eminyakeni ephansi edlule. Ngokuqondile, amabhange anezintshisekelo ezahlukahlukene, akhona ezindaweni ezahlukahlukene ezingasiholela ekucabangeni ukuthi inkinga yaseSpain, noma ngabe inkulu kangakanani, ingahlanjululwa ngalokhu kuhluka okushiwo ngenhla. Ngokwezinga lapho lezi zilawula amathuba angempela okunyakaza kwezinkampani okwenzeka phakathi kwamanye amabhange ahlanganiswe enkombeni ekhethiwe yezimali ezweni lethu, i-Ibex 35.
Leli qiniso kungenzeka ngoba livela e-European Union (i-EU) nase- I-European Central Bank (BCE) ubelokhu ephakamisa futhi enxusa nokuhlangana phakathi kwamabhizinisi isikhathi esithile ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukuzixazulula kwawo. Ngalo mqondo, kufanele kukhunjulwe ukuthi la masonto kukhunjulwa ukuthi ukuhlangana phakathi kweDeutsche Bank neCommerzbank kwaphazamiseka ngokusemthethweni ngonyaka owedlule. Elinye lamabhomu amakhulu ebelizothinta umkhakha onamandla ngaphakathi kwe-EU. Kepha manje kugxilwe ezikhungweni zezikweletu zikazwelonke njengoba isimo sazo singesona esingcono kakhulu ngemuva kwemicimbi eseyenzekile kusukela emasontweni okuqala kaMashi.
Isikhathi lapho amaqembu ezezimali aseSpain ehle kakhulu ezimakethe zezimali zaseSpain. Kumamaki ahamba phakathi kuka-30% no-50%, okusho okuningi engxenyeni enesisindo esikhulu kunazo zonke kwi-Ibex 35 futhi okube nomthelela wokuthi iqondiswe ku 6000 amaphuzu amaphuzus. Yize ngokuhamba kwesikhathi iphinde yaphindeka ngo-15% ngenxa yokwehla okubonakalayo kwezimakethe zamasheya emhlabeni jikelele. Kunoma ikuphi, kungenye yemikhakha esebenza kakhulu kulesi sikhathi sohlu sonyaka. Ngamanani we-priori, kungathandeka kakhulu ukuqala ukuthatha izikhundla kulezi zimpahla zezimali. Ngezaphulelo ezifanele kakhulu maqondana nezintengo zazo zonyaka wokuqala.
Amabhange: kungenzeka i-OPAS
Esinye sezigameko ezicatshangelwa kulezi zinsuku inhlanganisela yokuthengwa kwamanye amabhange akhona emakethe eqhubekayo yezwe lethu. Ukusuka kule ndlela ngecebo lamabhange, enye yezinto ezwakala kakhulu emaqenjini wabenzeli bezezimali inyunyana phakathi IBanco Santander neBBVA. Ngoba empeleni, kungaba nguguquko lwangempela kulo mkhakha obaluleke kakhulu emnothweni waseSpain. Njengoba kungumsebenzi omkhulu ongaphazamisa isimo sezimakethe zamasheya somkhakha wonke kusukela manje kuqhubeke. Ngokuhlolwa okwehlukile ecaleni ngalinye.
Ngenkathi ngakolunye uhlangothi, kungakhohlwa ukuthi umbono ovela ezinhlakeni zomphakathi ukwehlisa inani lezikhungo zezikweletu zibe ubuncane. Okuthile okwase kuxoxwe ngakho selokhu kwaba nenkinga yokugcina yezomnotho, emuva ngonyaka we-2009 futhi lokho manje kubonakala kubhekwa njengomphumela wesimo sezomnotho esikhona manje emhlabeni jikelele. Futhi lokho kudalwa yizici ezikhethekile zomkhakha webhange ezweni lethu futhi lokho kuvame ukusheshe kufike ezingeni lamaqembu ezezimali. Lapho ku-Ibex imigqa ehlukene yebhizinisi ihlanganiswe ngaphakathi kwalesi sigaba sebhizinisi: amabhange amancane, aphakathi nendawo namakhulu. Ngabaphathi abahluke ngokuphelele kulowo nalowo kubo futhi ngakolunye uhlangothi kunengqondo ukuqonda kusuka kubenzeli bezezimali.
Ukuziphatha okubi kakhulu ngo-2020
Kunoma ikuphi, kukhona iqiniso elikhanyisa kakhulu futhi lokho ukuthi umkhakha wamabhange yiwona osebenze kabi kakhulu kusukela ezinsukwini zokuqala zikaJanuwari. Ngokwehla okumaphakathi emkhakheni osufinyelele kulezi zinsuku amazinga asondele kakhulu kuma-36%. Ngomkhuba omubi owawusuvele ukhona ngaphambi kokuthi kuvele inkinga yezempilo ngenxa yokwanda kwe-coronavirus. Ngokuthambekela phansi okwezinyanga ezimbalwa kucace bha maqondana nayo yonke imigomo yesimo saphakade: esifushane, esimaphakathi nesikhathi. Ngokulibaziseka okukhulu maqondana neminye imikhakha efanelekile yenkomba ekhethiwe yemali engenayo yezwe lethu, ngokuhlukahluka okungafinyelela emazingeni ekhotheshini yamanani abo angaphezu kwe-5% noma i-10%.
Ngokwalo mongo ojwayelekile, umkhakha wamabhange eSpain awusizo kakhulu ekwenzeni ukonga kube nenzuzo kusuka manje. Uma kungenjalo, ngokuphambene nalokho, kufanele kukushiye ku-radar lapho kubhekene nalokho okungenzeka emasontweni azayo. Kepha akujabulisi kakhulu ukufeza noma yiluphi uhlobo lokuthenga ngoba kuningi okulahlekile kunokuzuza. Ukuba nengozi ekusebenzeni akudingeki ngokuphelele kuzintshisakalo zethu kulo nyaka osele. Njengoba into enengqondo ukuthi amanani abo azobona amanani aphansi kakhulu ezindaweni zokuhlala futhi leli qiniso kufanele lisisuse kulezi zikhundla ezimakethe zamasheya ngoba akukho kungabaza ukuthi singaba nezimanga eziningi ezingezinhle kusukela manje kuqhubeke.
Ukuhlanganiswa okungenzeka
Ezinye izinhlanganisela ezingenzeka kusukela manje kuqhubeke kulo mkhakha obalulekile wemakethe yamasheya ezweni lethu kuxoxwa ngawo emaqenjini abatshalizimali. Ngalo mqondo, okunye okungenzeka kakhulu yilowo okuyi-protagonist yakhe I-Bankia neCaixabank nokuthi ingaqhuba ukuhlangana okunganelisa izintshisekelo zabaninimasheya kuzo zombili izingxenye zenqubo. Kuzona zozimbili lezi zimo, zisezingeni eliphansi eminyakeni eminingi edlule futhi ezinomkhuba owehlayo ngokusobala kuyo yonke imigomo yokuba ngunaphakade. Futhi uma kwenzeka ebhange elidala lokonga iMadrid, kungakuthatha kufinyelele emazingeni angaphansi kweyunithi ye-euro okokuqala ngqa. Lapho ngonyaka owedlule wayesesimweni sokuhlasela ukumelana ayenakho ngama-euro amathathu ngesabelo ngasinye.
Enye yezinhlanganisela ezisingathwa esimweni semakethe yamasheya yileso esinamabhange amancane kakhulu okwenza imali njengabaphikisi. Phakathi kwalabo abavelele I-Unicaja neLiberbank, phakathi kokunye okuhambisana kakhulu. Ngobuthakathaka obuthakaselwa kakhulu futhi ngenxa yalokho obungabayisa ezindaweni eziphakeme ezingacabangeki ezinyangeni zokugcina zanyakenye. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, lokhu kuhlangana kungaba ngesinye sezifiso zezindikimba ezilawulayo, ezingeni likazwelonke nangaphandle kwemingcele yethu, njengoba befisa amaqembu ezezimali anesisipha esikhulu ukuba aphendule kumakhasimende. Okuthile okwamanje abakwazi ukunikela ngakho noma okungenani ngendlela engagculisi kubenzeli bezezimali.
Umkhakha ozohlupheka kakhulu
Kunoma ikuphi, mancane kakhulu amabhange ahlanganisiwe kuphothifoliyo yokutshalwa kwezimali yezimali ezinkulu zokuphatha. Ngenxa yokuthi baba nemikhawulo ephansi ezinzuzweni zabo nokuthi amazinga wenzalo njengamanje asendaweni engeyinhle njengesinqumo se I-European Central Bank (ECB) ukwenza inqubomgomo yokwehlisa intengo yemali. Iqiniso ngokungangabazeki elilimaza izintshisekelo zebhizinisi zalawa maqembu ezezimali futhi kubonakala ekulinganisweni kwawo ezimakethe zezimali. Lapho intengo yamasheya eBanco Santander ingaphansi kwama-euro amabili kuthi leyo ye-BBVA ibe ngama-euro amathathu. Intengo engahambelani nesisindo esithile lawa ma-greats amabili we-Ibex 35 anawo.
Ngenkathi ngakolunye uhlangothi, kubalulekile ukugcizelela iqiniso lokuthi umkhakha wamabhange ucwiliswe ekujuleni kwamanje okujule kakhulu futhi ngamandla amakhulu okuzokwenza ukutholwa kwezikhundla zawo kube yinkimbinkimbi kakhulu. Ngaphandle kweqiniso lokuthi ukubuyela emuva okubalulekile kungenzeka kusukela kulo mzuzu onembile futhi lokho kuzosebenza okungaphezulu kokuthenga amasheya akho ukuze uhlehlise izikhundla ngaphansi kwamanani entengo ancintisanayo kunamazinga awo aphansi. Esimweni lapho into ehlakaniphile kunazo zonke ukuthi ibe semalini ngokuphelele lapho kubhekene nalokho okungenzeka ezinyangeni ezizayo. Okungenani maqondana nesikhathi esifushane nalapho kungekho xabiso elenza inkomba ekhethiwe yezimali ezweni lethu ekhombisa isici esihle sobuchwepheshe.
Lokhu kucishe kube yi-X-ray ehlinzekwa umkhakha wamabhange ezikhathini ezinzima kakhulu zokutshalwa kwezimali emakethe yamasheya. Naphezu kwakho konke, ukutshala imali ezimakethe zamasheya kuyindlela engcono yokwenza ukonga kube nenzuzo, ikakhulukazi uma kuhloswe esikhathini esimaphakathi nesikhathi ikakhulukazi. Ngoba ubungozi kwezinye izimpahla zezezimali bukhulu, kepha lapho amabhange engeyona indlela engcono kakhulu yokuqala ubudlelwano bethu nezimakethe zalezi zici. Ngoba usengakwazi ukwehlela ngezansi ekuhloleni kwakho.