Akungabazeki ukuthi ukuphendulwa kwezimakethe zokulingana emhlabeni wonke kuzoncika ezingeni lokululama emnothweni wamazwe omhlaba. Ukufika lapho abahlaziyi abahlukahlukene bezezimali baphakamisa khona izimo ezintathu eziyisisekelo: i-V, U noma i-L. Okuyogcina kunqume ukuthi imakethe yamasheya ingaya kuphi ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezizayo noma ngisho neminyaka. Ngaphandle kwalesi sikhathi kukhona ukuqiniseka ngezinga elingakhula ngalo emnothweni womhlaba. Kepha kunoma yikuphi, kungakunika umkhondo ongajwayelekile wokuqamba isu lokutshala imali elifanele, okungenani ungalahlekelwa yimali kulezi zinyanga ezinzima ezisencane.
Ngokwalokhu kubuka, kuzodingeka ngokuphelele ukuthi wazi ukuthi aqukethe ini lawa mazinga wokutakula, amelwe yizinhlamvu V, U noma L. Ngoba kuya ngokuthi ahlukile yini, kuzoholela indlela yokuziphatha ehlukile ezimakethe zezimali. Okusho ukuthi empeleni kusho izinkulungwane nezinkulungwane zama-euro ekusebenzeni okuvulekile ezimakethe zezezimali. Akufani, ngakho-ke, ukuthi ukuvuselelwa kwezomnotho kwenzeka nge-V no-L Phakathi kwezinye izizathu, ngoba izimpendulo okufanele zinikezwe kuzohluka kakhulu, zombili ngokwendlela yemali nezezimali
Ngenkathi ngakolunye uhlangothi, kubalulekile futhi ukugcizelela iqiniso lokuthi i- izinga lokutakula kuzobaluleka kakhulu ukuze ukulahleka kwemakethe yamasheya kungakhuphuki ezinyangeni ezizayo. Noma ngokuphambene nalokho, ingakhuphula izinkomba zayo eziyinhloko zamasheya. Lesi ngesinye sezizathu esenza ukuthi kudingekile ukuba unake kakhulu lokho okuzophuma kulesi simo esisha esethulwe ngumnotho wamazwe omhlaba. Ngakho-ke, ukululama ku-V, U noma u-L kuzothatha isinqumo sokubheka ukuthi impendulo yezimakethe zamasheya izoba yini, ezweni lethu nangaphandle kwemingcele yethu.
Ukubuyiselwa ku-V
I-V-shaped iyimodeli efunwa kakhulu yibo bonke, hhayi kuphela abatshalizimali emakethe yamasheya ngoba ikhombisa ukuthi imiphumela yayo ngeke ibe phezulu kakhulu. Uma kungenjalo, ngokuphambene nalokho, kuzokhombisa isibalo esicace bha esiya nokubuya esizosiza izimakethe zamasheya ukuthi zilulame ngesikhathi esifushane kakhulu. Yebo, kuleli cala lesi sibalo senzeka lapho kumiswa ngokungazelelwe emnothweni kepha ukubuyela esimeni nakho kuyashesha. Yisimo sokululama esinamandla ukwedlula zonke futhi imvamisa ayinakho ukulimala okukhulu kubatshali zimali abancane nabaphakathi, ikakhulukazi labo abaqondisa ukunyakaza kwabo esikhathini esimaphakathi futhi ikakhulukazi isikhathi eside.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kufanele futhi kugcizelelwe ukuthi kusukela manje iqiniso lokuthi izibikezelo ezinethemba elikhulu kakhulu zisekelwe emcabangweni wokuthi kuzodingeka amasonto ambalwa okuvalelwa kuphela kubalulekile. Yize kuvame kakhulu ukungabazeka ukuthi lesi simo sizogcwaliseka ekugcineni ngoba igciwane lisabalale ngamandla amakhulu emhlabeni. Ngenxa yokuthi ngandlela thile isimo se-alamu sinwetshiwe eSpain futhi lokhu kuyiqiniso eliphikisana neqiniso lokuthi kwenzeka ngendlela ye-V okufiswa kakhulu ngabo bonke abasebenzeli bezezimali. Ngokungabaza okungaphezulu nangokwengeziwe ngokufakwa kwayo endalweni yokukhiqiza yamazwe eplanethi.
Ukubuyiselwa ku-U
Lezi yizimo ezingenzeka kakhulu futhi lezo ziphathwe ngabahlaziyi bezezimali ngoba ekugcineni kosuku izinkomba zomnotho bathatha isikhathi eside ukufinyelela kumazinga wangaphambi komnotho. Futhi nguyena iningi lochwepheshe abangavela lapho kuphela lolu bhubhane olukhulu kangaka lwezempilo. Lapho abanye bala ma-ejenti ezezimali becabanga ukuvuselelwa komhlaba wonke e-U, yize isigaba esisicaba singahlala isikhashana. Ngoba empeleni, esinye sezikhiye zalo mkhuba yisikhathi isigaba esigcwele esizohlala ngaso ngoba singaguquguquka kakhulu esikhathini saphakade futhi esingathinta abatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi ngandlela thile.
Kanye nokuthi kulesi simo esithile kungadala ukuthi impendulo ehlelekile yamaCentral Banks kanye nokusabela okunamandla kwezimali yizizwe kungasiza ekubuyiseleni ukukhula kwikota yesine yonyaka we-2020. Phakathi nendawo nomthelela ezimakethe zokulingana emhlabeni jikelele. Ngaphandle kweqiniso lokuthi ukubuyela emuva ngezikhathi ezithile kokuvumelana okuthile kungenzeka futhi nokuthi nakanjani kuzokwenzeka ezinsukwini nasemavikini azayo. Vele, akusona isimo esihle kakhulu sabatshalizimali, kepha kunezinye izimo ezimbi kakhulu, njengoba sizokhombisa ngezansi.
Ukubuyiselwa ku-L
Isimo esibi kunazo zonke futhi esesatshwa kakhulu ngabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi. Phakathi kwezinye izizathu, ngoba akuvezi ukuvuseleleka kwezomnotho obekulindelwe isikhathi eside ngoba, ngemuva kwakho konke, leli nani limele ukwehla kwamandla omnotho kanye nokuvuka kwawo okulandelayo. Kuyakhathaza kakhulu ngoba ukuvuselelwa kwezinkomba ze-macroeconomic ezifana ne- ukuqashwa noma i-GDP ingahlala iminyaka, noma ngisho amashumi eminyaka. Lokhu kunesizathu esanele ngoba kusho ukwehla kwamandla omnotho ngokuqhubekayo futhi ngenxa yalokho kubuye kube nokululama okukhathaza kakhulu. Ukuthi kungathinta ukusabalala kokwesaba, hhayi kuphela kubatshalizimali, kepha naphakathi kwezakhamizi jikelele.
Ukutholwa kwe-L kungalimaza ikakhulukazi izintshisekelo ezimakethe zezimali. Phakathi kwezinye izizathu, ngoba izimakethe zamasheya zingaqhubeka ukwehla izinyanga noma ngisho neminyaka njengoba ingekho indlela yokuphuma kulesi simo esikhathazayo kuwo wonke umuntu. Ngakho-ke ayihlangene nokululama ku-V noma ku-U ngoba its Imiphumela ihluke kakhulu ngisho nangezikhathi zokuhambisana. Ngoba ekugcineni kosuku ositshela khona ukuthi inkinga yezomnotho izosihlala isikhathi eside kakhulu kunalokho obekulindelwe kusukela ekuqaleni. Ngomthelela omkhulu kwizikhundla zabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi.
Idatha ye-macro ezayo
Ngenkathi ngakolunye uhlangothi, kufanele futhi kwaziwe ukuthi ngalesi sikhathi namanje akwaziwa ngokuqinisekile ukuthi le nkinga izoba ngakanani. Futhi lokhu kungabaza kulimaza ukuvela kwezimakethe zezimali. Ngoba impela, ngeke kulibaleke ukuthi esinye sezitha ezinkulu zotshalomali ukungabaza lokho kungakhiqizwa kusuka kulezi zikhathi. Kuze kube seqophelweni lokuthi kungaba yisiginali yokwehla okuqhubekayo kumasheya emhlabeni jikelele, okungenani esikhathini esifushane. Lapho, akunakungatshazwa ukuthi imisebenzi ekugcineni enquma impumelelo noma cha ekutshalweni kwezimakethe zamasheya yenzeka ngokuthengisa.
Ngemuva kwalokho kuzodingeka sinake kakhulu lokho idatha ye-macro engasitshela khona emavikini azayo. Ngoba bazonikeza umkhondo ongajwayelekile mayelana nezinga lokutakula kwezomnotho emhlabeni jikelele. Ngoba zingamamodeli ahlukahluka kusuka kohlelo olulodwa kuya kolunye noma ifomu ekuthuthukisweni kwesiginali. Kanye neqiniso lokuthi ekugcineni kuzonquma imiphumela yokusebenza kwethu ezimakethe zezimali. Ngalo mqondo, maduzane nje sizoba nesibonakaliso esiyinqaba esisitshela ukuthi siyaphi kulesi simo esikhethekile.
Qaphela izikhala kwimidwebo
Ukuthembeka okukhulu kunolunye uchungechunge lwezimpawu ezikhombisa isikhathi esifanele sokuthenga noma ukuthengisa emakethe yamasheya. Olunye lwalezi zimpawu izikhala, okuvamile, ngokuvamile ezichazwa njengendawo noma uhla lwamanani okungazange kwenziwe kulo msebenzi. Isibonelo, ku- phezulu singakhuluma ngegebe eshadini lansuku zonke lapho okuphansi kwethunzi eliphansi losuku olulodwa kungaphezulu kokuphakama kwethunzi losuku lwangaphambilini. Ku-downtrend, ubukhulu besithunzi sosuku olulodwa bungaba ngaphansi kobuncane besithunzi sosuku lwangaphambilini.
Kulayini, ukuze igebe eliya phezulu likhule eshadini lamasonto onke noma lenyanga zonke, kungadingeka ukuthi izinga eliphansi kakhulu elirekhodwe phakathi nesonto noma inyanga libe ngaphezulu kunesilinganiso esifinyelelwe esontweni eledlule noma ngenyanga ngokulandelana. Kepha futhi kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi kunezinye izinhlobo zezikhala ezivela phakathi kokuvala nokuvulwa kwansuku zonke, ngoba ziningi zazo ezenziwa ngosuku olufanayo futhi ezingaziwa ngabatshalizimali abaningi. Lezi zikhala zingabaluleka kakhulu kwezobuchwepheshe futhi zivame ukuhlinzeka ngemininingwane eminingi kunezinye izikhala.