Ukubuya kwamaholide kuzoletha uchungechunge lwamafu kubatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi abazothola amanye amanani ashibhile esitokisini. Ngoba izindawo ezishisayo lapho izimakethe zamasheya zincike khona zivuselelwe. Kuze kube seqophelweni lokuthi bangahola inkomba yokulingana ekhethiwe ukuhweba ezindaweni eziphansi eminyakeni yamuva. Esimweni esikhathaza kakhulu esikumema ukuthi uhlehlise izikhundla ukugwema ububi obukhulu.
Kukho konke lokhu kumele kungezwe ukuthi all izinkomba zomnotho baxwayisa ngakho yisimo senhlekelele yezomnotho esingadlali ngezintshisekelo zabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi nakhona. Lapho bonke abahlaziyi bezezimali beveza ukuthi umuntu kufanele enze ngokuqapha okukhulu ekusebenzeni kwesitoko kunakuqala. Ngoba impela, kuliqiniso ukuthi kula mazinga sinokuningi esilahlekile kunokuzuza. Futhi ngaphansi kwalesi simiso kufanele sisebenzise amasu ethu okutshala imali.
Vele, umbono wezimakethe zokulingana awumuhle kakhulu eminyakeni embalwa ezayo. Ngoba singakwazi faka i-downtrend lokho kuzovimba ukusebenza ezimakethe zezimali. Yize umbuzo obuzwa njengamanje abatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi ukuthi iwukuthi le nkathi yokwehla kwamandla omnotho izohlala isikhathi esingakanani. Okungenani yonke into ibonakala ikhombisa ukuthi unyaka ozayo uzocwiliswa esimweni eseqile emakethe yamasheya. Ngokungabaza okuningi ngaphambili, njengoba uzokwazi ukuqinisekisa kusukela manje kuqhubeke.
Izimpawu ezimbi ngamaholide
Umcimbi wokuqala ophazamisa izimakethe zezimali yimpi yezohwebo phakathi kweChina ne-United States. Ngalesi sikhathi kubukeka sengathi uzimisele futhi usengene empini phakathi kwezimali zabo ezingase zijulise ubunzima bezomnotho obuzoqala, yebo sekuvele sekwenzile lokho. Kuze kube seqophelweni lokushaya phansi izikhwama emhlabeni wonke kimi ngo-Agasti no amathemba awathandeki neze ukuthatha izikhundla. Ngaphandle kokuthi intengo yamanye amasheya isemazingeni wokuncintisana kakhulu, njengokuvula izikhundla ukwenza ukonga kube nenzuzo.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i- impi yezohwebo phakathi kweChina neMelika ingagxila noma ibe yimbi nakakhulu, eqhubeka nokuvikeleka kwayo. Ngoba empeleni, kulokhu izinto ziba zimbi kakhulu futhi yingakho abatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi beyiqonde. Lapho izikhundla zokuthengisa zibeka ngokucacile kubathengi. Ngokukhuphuka kokuvalwa kokuvalwa kwamasonto onke futhi ngale ndlela ayikhuphuki. Umkhuba ongaphakama ngokungangabazeki ngemuva kwamaholide.
Misa emnothweni waseYurophu
Kuliqiniso ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla omnotho sekuvele kuliqiniso ezwenikazi elidala. Lapho into ekhathaza kakhulu yilokho okwenzeka esitimeleni saseYurophu, Alemania, esivele sisesigabeni sokuwohloka komnotho waso. Ukubuyekezwa phansi kwemibiko kukhombisa ukuthi lesi kungaba yisimo esinzima kakhulu ezimakethe zezimali nalapho inzuzo yezinkampani ezisohlwini ingase ihlupheke kusukela manje kuqhubeke. Ngokulungiswa okulandelayo kwamanani amasheya angadala enye ingxabano ngabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi.
Kulesi simo esijwayelekile nesikhathazayo, ukukhetha okungcono kakhulu ukungabikho kunoma yiluphi uhlobo lomsebenzi ezimakethe zezezimali. Okungenani kuze kube khona izimpawu zokuvuselelwa ezimema ukuthi ushintshe isu lakho lokutshala imali. Kepha lokhu akubonakali kuzokwenzeka ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezizayo, ingasaphathwa eyonyaka ozayo. Ngamanye amagama, kungaba nokudonswa kakhulu kwe-bearish ezimakethe zokulingana. Yize kunjalo kuzokhiqiza amathuba ebhizinisi ngenxa yalokhu kulungiswa kwentengo.
IBrexit enzima nehlukumezayo
Elinye iqiniso elingabhubhisa izimakethe zamasheya zomhlaba wonke ukuhamba kweGreat Britain kwi-European Union ngemuva kwe Ukufika kukaBoris Johnson eDowning Street. Kungaba imbangela yokugcina yokwehla okucijile okubukhali okungavela ezitokisini. Ngokuwa okubonakalayo kweminye yemigomo efaneleke kakhulu yamapaki kazwelonke nalabo abangaphandle kwemingcele yethu. Kuyiqiniso okufanele abatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi babe nalo kusukela manje. Ngaphandle kokunye ukucatshangelwa kobuchwepheshe futhi mhlawumbe futhi kusukela ekubukeni kwezisekelo zayo.
Ngenkathi ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-Brexit elukhuni nehlukumezayo ingathatha i-Ibex 35 nangaphansi kwamazinga wamaphoyinti angama-8.000 futhi ngaleyo ndlela ivakashele isikhathi sayo sonke. Okusho ukuthi, uzolahlekelwa yimali eningi uma uvula izikhundla ngalezi zikhathi eziqondile. Ngalo mqondo, kufanele kuphawulwe ukuthi ushintsho kumkhuba lungaba lukhulu kakhulu ukukwenza ucabange kabusha noma yiliphi isu lokutshala imali ngalesi sikhathi. Esimweni esingamemezi ithemba ekutshalweni kwezimali emakethe yamasheya.
Ukuhlaziywa kwezobuchwepheshe okonakele kakhulu
Kukho konke lokhu kufanele kungezwe i- inkinga yezobuchwepheshe ngama-indices emakethe yamasheya amakhulu. Ezimweni eziningi, basukile ku-bullish baya ku-bearish ezinsukwini ezimbalwa futhi balindele ukuthi intengo yamasheya ingaqhubeka nokuhla ezinyangeni ezizayo. Ngisho nangokuqina okukhulu njengomphumela wobudlova balezi ukunyakaza. Lapho into enengqondo kunazo zonke ukuthi ibe semalini ephelele hhayi ukwenza imisebenzi emakethe yamasheya.
Ngoba a ukuthengisa kwamanje ngamandla athile nokuthi ingakulimaza kuphothifoliyo yezokuphepha osuyenzile kuze kube manje. Zonke izibalo ziyaxwayisa ngalokhu futhi, ngaphezu kwalokho, izesekelo ezibaluleke kakhulu zeqiwe, lapho amanani akhombisa amathuba we-downside afanele kakhulu. Ngisho nangokuqina okukhulu njengomphumela wobudlova balezi ukunyakaza. Lapho into enengqondo kunazo zonke ukuthi ibe semalini ephelele hhayi ukwenza imisebenzi emakethe yamasheya.
Yehlisa inzalo
I-Fed ilungisa indlela yokwehlisa amanani kanye nokwelula isigaba sokunweba somjikelezo, kukhonjiswe kumnyango wokuhlaziya weBankinter. Lapho kukhonjiswa khona ukuthi shintshela kunqubomgomo yokuhlala ngaphezulu izobhula ibhuleki ekwazisweni kwedola engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka. Emhlanganweni wayo wokugcina iFed ikhiphe umyalezo owenziwe ngokuthambile (uthambile): Ibuyekeze ukuhlolwa kwayo komsebenzi wezomnotho ukuze ilinganiselwe kusuka kokuqinile. Wabona ukuthi ukungaqiniseki kuyanda nokuthi azikho izingcindezi zokwehla kwamandla emali; lisuse igama elithi "isiguli" esitatimendeni, okukhombisa ukuthi belilungele ukwenza okuthile ukugcina umjikelezo unwebeka.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, umnyango wezokuhlaziywa kweBankinter uveza ukuthi umdwebo onamachashazi ukhombisile ukuthi amalungu ayi-8 kwangu-17 abona ukwehla kwenzalo kulo nyaka (ama-8 engashintshiwe futhi omunye ecabanga ukwenyuka). Ngaphezu kwalokho, ugcizelele ukuthi amalungu angaboni ukusikeka kulo nyaka ayabona ukuthi imibandela yenqubomgomo yemali yokuhlala iqinisiwe emasontweni edlule. Isimo sethu sokuqala sifaka ukwehliswa kwamazinga amabili kulo nyaka kububanzi be-1,75% no-2,0%. I-Fed ayifuni ukubeka engcupheni ukusebenza sekwephuze kakhulu. Naphezu kweqiniso lokuthi izinga lokungasebenzi liphansi kakhulu kule minyaka engama-50 edlule (3,6%), ukwakhiwa kwamathuba emisebenzi sekupholile, umkhakha wezokukhiqiza ubuthakathaka, ukukhula komhlaba wonke kuya buthaka futhi ukwehla kwamandla emali kusalokhu kungaphansi kwenhloso yawo.
Idola njengemali ephephile
Umbiko webhange lezentengiselwano ubuye ukhombe ukuthi ukubuyela kuthoni eyakhayo ezingxoxweni zokuhweba kwenza idola lingakhangi njengemali ephephile. Lezi zizathu zingahle zibhule umkhuba omncane ukwazisa kwedola vs i-euro esikubonile engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka (+ 1,8%). Kodwa-ke, asilindele ukuthi lobu buthakathaka obukhulu bumakwe kakhulu. Ukukhula komnotho okuphansi ku-EMU kanye nethuba lokuvuselelwa okwengeziwe okuvela ku-ECB (ukuncipha kwenani lenzalo, uhlelo olusha lokuthenga izikweletu) kuzodambisa i-euro. Silindele ububanzi be-EURUSD ka-1,11 no-1,17 ekupheleni kuka-2019 naphakathi kuka-1,14 no-1,20 ngasekupheleni kuka-2020.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, inani eliphelele elivunyelwe ekuhwebeni ku- imakethe yemali engenayo engaguquki NgoJulayi lalingama-euro ayizigidi ezingama-26.811, okusho ukuthi ukukhula kuka-14,6% kuqhathaniswa nenyanga eyedlule kanye no-11,2% esihlanganisweni sonyaka. Ibhalansi esalele ikhule ngo-2,4% uma kuqhathaniswa nokuphela kukaDisemba 2018 futhi yafinyelela ku-1,55 trillion euros. Lapho kuphinde kwavezwa khona ukuthi imakethe yezimenenja ezezimali inyuse ukuhweba ngo-9,6% kwaze kwaba nguJulayi uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo sonyaka odlule. Ukuhweba kukhuphuke ngo-3,7% kuzinkontileka zesikhathi esizayo ze-Ibex 35 no-5,2% esikhathini esizayo se-Ibex 55. Lapho ukuhweba okukhethwa kukho ku-Ibex 35 kukhule ngo-40,5, XNUMX% ngenyanga.