Esinye sezici esizothinta kakhulu ukuvela kwezimakethe zamazwe angaphandle ngokungangabazeki impikiswano phakathi kwe-United States neChina. Ukufika ezingeni lokuthi kuyimbangela efanelekile yezinkomba zamasheya zomhlaba ukwehla noma ukukhuphuka kuseshini eyodwa yokuhweba. Akumangazi ukuthi isizathu esikhulu salokhu kuguquguquka okusha okuzothinta u-2020 yimpi entsha i-United States ebhekene nayo neChina, futhi kulokhu kungenxa yomzamo kahulumeni waseBeijing wokusebenzisa imithetho evimbela inkululeko yomuntu ngamunye eHong Kong .
Umphumela wokuqala walo mphumela wemakethe yamazwe omhlaba. Futhi yini imbangeleemalini eyodwa, i-euro, ngalesi sikhathi igcina ithoni ecacile ye-bearish, futhi ingaqhubeka kuleso siqondiso kusuka ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezizayo. Lapho kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi ngezansi kwezinga elishiwo ukwehla kuzocaca kakhulu ngakho-ke ngeke kube yimpahla yezezimali yokwenza imisebenzi ezimakethe zezimali. Kunoma ikuphi, konke kubonakala kukhombisa ukuthi lo mkhuba ongagcinwa nakanjani inqobo nje uma impikiswano phakathi kwe-United States neChina isebenza.
Abatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi akumele bakhohlwe lesi sici uma befisa ukungathinteki ukunyakaza kokwehla kwemali emalini yaseYurophu eyodwa. Ikakhulu, ngenxa yokungazinzi kwayo okuphezulu ngalesi sikhathi, okuhambisana nokwandiswa kwe-coronavirus futhi okungaba umthombo wokukhathazeka ngenani elikhulu labathengisi. Yize kungaba umkhuba ongamiswa noma nini kulo nyaka futhi kuya ngemiphumela yezingxoxo empikiswaneni phakathi kwe-United States neChina. Akunandlela yokuthi kufanele kube olunye utshalomali lokuthenga nokuthengisa amasheya emakethe yamasheya. Uma kungenjalo, kunalokho, kuyindlela okufanele icatshangelwe ngaphandle kwalolu hlobo lokusebenza ezimakethe zezezimali. Ngokuhlaziywa okuhluke ngokuphelele kuzimpahla zombili zezimali.
Impikiswano phakathi kwe-US neChina: uwoyela
Akungabazeki ukuthi le mpahla yezezimali esezingeni eliphakeme ingenye yalabo abathinteka ecaleni lombango phakathi kwe-United States neChina. Kulesi simo esithile kusuka ekwandeni kwesidingo esivela eChina, okuleveli yokungenisa kwayo ibuyele ezibalweni ngaphambi kwenkinga yezempilo. Kulokhu, akunakukhohlwa ukuthi le nto ebalulekile eluhlaza iye yalungiswa phansi emasontweni adlule, yize kunalokho kugcina ithoni ethe xaxa engaba nentshisekelo enkulu yokwenza imali etholakalayo inenzuzo. Okuthile kugcinelwe abatshalizimali abanamazinga aphezulu okufunda kuleli banga lemisebenzi ekhetheke kakhulu.
Ngenkathi ngakolunye uhlangothi, asikwazi ukukhohlwa ngalesi sikhathi ukuthi uwoyela ongahluziwe udlula esimeni esintengantenga kakhulu esingacindezela ukunyakaza kule makethe yezezimali futhi nangaphezulu kakhulu kunasemakethe yemali engenayo eguquguqukayo. Ngaphandle kokunquma nganoma iyiphi indlela ukuthi ukulungiswa okusha okubhekiswe phansi kunganikezwa ngaphambi kokuqala umjikelezo ozinzile ngokwengeziwe weminyaka embalwa ezayo. Futhi kunoma yikuphi, kuzoncika ngandlela thile ukuthi ingxabano phakathi kwe-United States neChina ihamba kanjani. Ngaphandle kweminye imibandela ephathelene kakhulu nokuhlaziywa kwezobuchwepheshe futhi lokho kungashintsha isu lokutshalwa kwezimali ngabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi ukusukela manje.
Ukhetho e-US ekwindla
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngeke kulibaleke ukuthi ezinyangeni zokugcina zalo nyaka ukhetho luzobanjelwa e-US, lapho uMongameli uDonald Trump esengozini yokukhethwa kwakhe kabusha futhi lokhu kunganciphisa ukungezwani phakathi kwala mazwe womabili. Ukuthi ibambe iqhaza lesibili ezimakethe zezimali, ikakhulukazi ezaseNyakatho Melika. Kunoma ikuphi, kufanele kulindelwe ukuthi ngemuva kokuqalisa kabusha imisebenzi yobungcweti ngemuva kwe-coronavirus, kunengqondo kakhulu ukuthi imakethe yamasheya yase-US inokudonsa okusha okuphezulu okungaholela ekusebenzeni kube nenzuzo kubo bonke abatshalizimali. Ngokombono, kungaba yithuba lebhizinisi lokufaka izikhundla kule makethe yezimali efanelekile. Ngethuba langempela lokusondela ezindaweni eziphakeme kunazo zonke efinyelele kuzo ekupheleni kukaFebhuwari.
Ngenkathi ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukhetho e-US ekwindla luyisikhuthazo esisha sokuthi izimakethe zamazwe zamazwe ngamazwe zikhuphuke kusukela manje kuqhubeke. Ikakhulukazi ngemuva kokulahleka okukhulu okwenzekile ngokusabalala kwe-coronavirus emhlabeni jikelele. Ngokwehla kwamandla esefinyelele ngaphezu kwama-40% kwamanye amazwe athinteke kakhulu yilezi zimo zezempilo ezibaluleke ngokukhethekile emnothweni wamazwe omhlaba. Kuze kube seqophelweni lokuthi ukuthambekela okuphezulu okuboniswe yizikhwama ezinyangeni ezimbili zokuqala zonyaka kulo nyaka sekwephulwe kakhulu. Okungenani maqondana nesikhathi esiphakathi futhi ikakhulukazi isikhathi esifushane. Ngokuthengiswa okuningi ngabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi ngenxa yesidingo sokheshi ku-akhawunti yabo yokonga ngaleso sikhathi.
Ukusebenza okungcono kwezinkampani zobuchwepheshe
Elinye iqiniso okufanele libhekwe kusukela kulo mzuzu kuqhubeke ukuthi izinkomba zobuchwepheshe zenze kangcono kunalezo zendabuko kulesi sikhathi esiyingqayizivele sonke esihlangabezane naso. Ukuthi iphuzu lokuthi iNasdaq ephakathi nobhadane ikwazile ukuzimisa kahle ngokuya ngokuvela kwayo kwaminyaka yonke ezimakethe zezimali. Kulesi simo esithile, ngenzuzo yonyaka engaphezu kwe-1%, ngenkathi izinkomba zemakethe yamasheya ezisele zehlele kuma-40% kwezinye izimakethe zomhlaba ezihambisana kakhulu. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kufanele futhi sigcizelele iqiniso lokuthi ukusebenza kangcono kwezinkampani zobuchwepheshe kungenxa yokuthi ziyizinkampani ezijwayele kangcono izidingo zezinsizakalo zamazwe kulesi sikhathi esikhetheke kakhulu.
Esinye isici esifanele ukusibheka kulesi sigaba yilokho okuphathelene nesimo salezi zinkampani futhi okube wusizo olukhulu ekuguqukeni kwe-coronavirus. Isibonelo, kuxhunyaniswe nemikhiqizo eyenza imithi, ukuhlaziywa kwemitholampilo nokuzilibazisa nokuqeqesha. Kuzona zozimbili lezi zimo ukwazisa ekuhwebaneni kwamasheya kwamazwe angaphezulu kwe-10% nokuthi kube yithuba elihle kakhulu lebhizinisi engxenyeni enhle yabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi.
I-Ballast yokuvela kweDow Jones
Ikusasa leDow likhombe ukwehla okukhulu ekuvulekeni emasontweni adlule ngemuva kokuthi abaphathi bakaTrump bethuthele ukuvimba ukuthunyelwa kwabafundi abancane kuma-telecom amakhulu aseChina, abesenkabeni yombango wezobuchwepheshe obilayo phakathi kweWashington neBeijing. NgoLwesine, iDow Jones Industrial Average inyuke ngamaphuzu angama-377, noma u-1,6%, ngemuva kokuwa ngaphezu kwamaphoyinti angama-450 esimisweni esedlule.
Uhulumeni uthe ngoLwesihlanu ukudayisa kuka-Ephreli kwehle ngo-16,4% njengoba ukuvalwa kwe-coronavirus kuvala izitolo emhlabeni jikelele. Akumangalisi ukuthi osomnotho balindele ukwehla ngo-12,3% ngemuva kokwehla ngo-8,3% ngoMashi. Ukukhombisa umbono onzima wokuthengisa ezweni le-Covid-19, kube ngesinye sezici ezidlala indima ebabazekayo ezimakethe zezimali zase-US, okungenani maqondana nesikhathi esifushane.
INike izonciphisa ukuthengisa kwayo ngo-2020
Mayelana nalokhu, abakwaNike baxwayise ngokuthi ukuvalwa kwezitolo ezihlobene nobhadane ngekota yamanje kuzolimaza imiphumela yaso yokuthengisa kanye neyokuthengisa. Abenzi bezicathulo nezembatho zemidlalo bathe u-100% wezitolo zayo zaseGreater China sezivuliwe futhi ukuthengiswa online kuyasiza ekunciphiseni ukulahleka kokuthengisa kusuka ekuvalwa kwezitolo. Ngenkathi ngakolunye uhlangothi, kuyadingeka ukuthonya iqiniso lokuthi iNew York Stock Exchange izovula iminyango yayo ikhumbula lokhu ukuthi ingathonya ezomnotho emhlabeni wonke, hhayi e-US kuphela. Ngokuqondile, iNew York Stock Exchange yahamba ngokugcwele ezinyangeni ezimbili ezedlule ngemuva kokuthi abantu ababili behlolwe ukuthi banalo yini ukungena kwe-coronavirus. Abenzi bezimakethe abaqokiwe, ababheka ukuhweba kwezinkampani ezingama-2.200 XNUMX ezibalwe kuNew York Stock Exchange, bazoqhubeka nokusebenza kude.
Uwoyela nawo ugqamile, obonakala ngathi ungene embuthanweni omuhle, ngenxa yokwanda kwesidingo esivela eChina, okuthe izinga lazo lokungenisa labuya ezibalweni ngaphambi kwenkinga yezempilo. Impahla eluhlaza ibhekane nokulungiswa okulingene okuya phansi ngoLwesihlanu, futhi igcina ithoni ethele ngokweqile emahoreni okuqala esonto. Silindele okunye ukulungiswa okuphansi ngaphambi kokuqala umjikelezo oya phambili osimeme ngaphezulu.
Inqubo iqale ngo-2018
Kusukela ngo-2018, i-United States ne-China babeke izindlela ezahlukahlukene zokuvimbela ukugeleza kwezohwebo phakathi kwala mazwe womabili, okuwukuthi ukwenyuka kwamanani entengo kube okuvelele kakhulu. Ukunyuka kwamanani entengo yi-United States kokungeniswa kwamaShayina kuholele ekuphenduleni okusheshayo okuvela eChina, nakho okwenyuse amanani ayo ekuthengisweni kwamazwe aseMelika. Yize udweshu lwezohwebo lubonakala lukhula ekwindla ka-2019 ngentela entsha inyuka, ngasekupheleni kuka-2019 la mazwe avumelana ngesivumelwano, ahoxisa ukwenyuka kwamanani entengo amenyezelwe futhi abuyisela emuva okunye ukwenyuka kwamanani entengo edlule. Isivumelwano saholela ekubizweni
Isivumelwano Sesigaba Sokuqala sasayinwa ngoJanuwari 2020. Kulo mbhalo sihlaziya ezomnotho zombango wezohwebo, sixoxa ngesizinda sezomnotho sodweshu lwezohwebo, sinikeza ukubuka konke ngezindlela ezahlukahlukene ezamukelwe nokuhlola imiphumela, ukungena kumthelela osuvele wenzekile futhi umthelela olindelekile esikhathini esizayo, unake ngokukhethekile imiphumela engaba khona ngokungaqiniseki ngenqubomgomo yezohwebo. Imiphumela yezomnotho ihlolwa ngokubukeza izincwadi nangokuzihlaziya.
Ukuhlaziya, sihlola ukuthi ukuhwebelana okuhamba phakathi kweChina ne-US kushintshe kanjani eminyakeni emibili edlule futhi sihlaziya amaphethini okuphambukisa kwezohwebo. Ukuhlaziywa, kusetshenziswa i-WTO Global Trade Model (GTM), amandla wokuphindaphinda ahlanganiswayo, imodeli yokulinganisa ejwayelekile (CGE). Kunenkulumompikiswano ebanzi ngemiphumela engaba khona yokungezwani kwezohwebo emnothweni wezwe ngenxa yokwanda kokungaqiniseki kwenqubomgomo yezohwebo nokufaka uhlaka olusha lobudlelwano.
Isivumelwano phakathi kwe-US neChina
Kusukela kwaqala ukungqubuzana kwezohwebo phakathi kwe-US ne-China la mazwe womabili andise amanani entengo ngokuthengwa komunye nomunye, kusuka ku-2,6% kuya ku-17,5% kokungeniswa kwamaShayina okuya e-US nokusuka ku-6,2% kuya ku-16,4% kokungeniswa okuvela e-United States kuye I-China. Isivumelwano Sesigaba 1 phakathi kweMelika neChina sehlise amanani entengo yokungeniswa kwamaShayina e-United States aya ku-16%. Ukunciphisa umkhawulo wedokhumenti. Igxile ekuxabaneni kwezohwebo phakathi kwe-US neChina.
Amanani entengo yokungeniswa kwamaShayina akhuthazwe okungenani izimpikiswano ezine:
Ukungalingani kwezohwebo kwamanye amazwe; yenza amanani akhokheleke ngokwengeziwe; ukuthola imisebenzi emkhakheni wezokukhiqiza; ukubhekana nezinqubomgomo zaseChina ezinemiphumela engemihle yokuchitheka njengokuvikelwa kwempahla yengqondo, imixhaso evela ezinkampanini zikahulumeni, kanye nokudluliswa kobuchwepheshe okuphoqelelwe. Isisekelo sezomnotho sezimpikiswano ezintathu zokuqala kuzodingidwa ngaso kabanzi kulo mbhalo.
Ukuqaliswa kwemali ekhokhwayo
Yize ukuhwebelana okuvela eChina kuye e-US kusakhula ngo-2018 ngenxa yokusatshalaliswa okulindelwe okungamaphesenti angaba ngu-7, ukuthunyelwa kweChina e-United States kwehle kakhulu ezingxenyeni ezintathu zokuqala zonyaka we-2019 mayelana nemikhiqizo yamanani, ngo-13%. Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kusuka e-United States kuya e-China kwehle cishe ngo-1% ngo-2018, kwasheshisa kwehliswa ngaphezu kwama-25% ezingxenyeni ezintathu zokuqala zango-2019.
Ngenkathi ukuthunyelwa kwamaShayina e-United States kusakhula ngo-2018 ngo-7% ngenxa yokusatshalaliswa obekulindelwe, kwehle kwikota yokuqala ka-2019 ngo-13%. Ukuhlaziywa futhi kukhombisa ukuthi kube nokuphazamiseka okukhulu kwezebhizinisi okuqonde kokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kusuka kwabanye abalingani bokuhweba. Amazwe amane ase-East Asia (iJapan, iSouth Korea, iTaiwan neVietnam) athumele kancane eChina nakwamanye amazwe aseMelika, ikakhulukazi emkhakheni wezinto zikagesi.
Lokhu kukhombisa ukuthi amaketanga wamanani aseMpumalanga Asia ahlelwa kabusha ngokuphendula ukungqubuzana kwezohwebo. Umqondo ovela ezincwadini ezisetshenziswayo kuze kube manje ngempikiswano yezohwebo ukuthi kube nokushintshwa okuphelele kusuka kumanani aphezulu wokungenisa izimpahla zaseChina ukungenisa amanani entengo afakiwe.
Ukushoda kwezohwebo emazweni womabili
Izwe laseMelika laqala ukukhuphula amanani entengo yokungeniswa kwempahla evela eChina ngoMashi 2018 futhi impendulo kahulumeni waseChina yalandelwa ngemuva nje kwalokho. Kukhombisa inani lokuhweba elithintekayo kumjikelezo ngamunye wamanani entela, kanti ngakolunye uhlangothi kukhombisa ukuvela kwamanani entengo amaphakathi kokungeniswa kwe-US okuvela eChina nokungeniswa kwamaShayina okuvela e-United States. Isilinganiso sokukhuphuka kwentela esithinta kakhulu ukuhwebelana okungeziwe senziwa ngoSepthemba 24, 2018. I-US yaqoqa amanani athe xaxa ka-10% cishe kumaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-200.000 zokungeniswa kwamaShayina, okwenyuka kwaba ngama-25% ngoMeyi 10, 2019.
Amanani entengo amaphakathi abekwe yi-United States ekuthengisweni kwezinto ezivela eChina akhuphuke kakhulu selokhu kuqale udweshu lwezohwebo, kusuka ku-2,6% MFN rate kuya ku-17,5% wamanani entela ngoSepthemba 1, 2019. Ekuqaleni, i-United States yamemezela ukwanda okuqhubekayo kwesilinganiso sokukhushulwa kwamanani, obekungakhuphula amanani entengo amaphakathi abe ngama-24,4% ngoDisemba 15. Kodwa-ke, ngenxa yesivumelwano sombango wezohwebo, lokhu kwanda akuzange kusetshenziswe.
Ngenkathi ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukwanda okulindelwe kungama-20,7% ngoDisemba 2019, akuzange kusetshenziswe. Ngasikhathi sinye, iChina yehlise imali ekhokhwayo ye-MFN yabanye ababambisene nabo kwezentengiselwano, okuhambisana nokwehliswa kwamanani entengo okulinganiselwa ku-5%. Ngakho-ke, izilinganiso zilinganiswa kuphela ukuhweba okuthinteka ngokunyuka kwamanani. Yize ekugcineni, kufanele kugcizelelwe ukuthi njengamanje kunenkulumompikiswano ebanzi mayelana nemiphumela yemiphumela yokungezwani kwezohwebo emnothweni wezwe ngenxa yokwanda kokungaqiniseki kwezepolitiki phakathi kwala mazwe womabili.