Ewe, enye yeendaba ezifanelekileyo kulo nyaka kukusebenza okungafaniyo kwesalathiso sesitokhwe saseMelika, iDow Jones. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku ukuba ibonakalise ukuphakama kwamaxesha onke emva kokudinwa inkunzi ibaleke onamava kuyo kule minyaka imbalwa idlulileyo. Akumangalisi ke ukuba sesona salathiso samazwe aphesheya siphezulu kwaye, ewe, ngaphezulu kweYurophu. Ukuthandabuza okukhulu kubatyali mali kuvela kwinto yokuba kusenokwenzeka ukuba sele kudlule ixesha lokuvula izikhundla kule marike ibalulekileyo yezemali. Okanye mhlawumbi akunjalo?
Yonke into ibonakala ibonisa ukuba uDow Jones akanamida ngaphambili kwaye akukho manqanaba anokumelana nayo. Nangona kunjalo kuyakubakho ixesha apho olu gqatso lomeleleyo lwe-bullish kuya kufuneka lume kwaye kule ndlela akukho bahlalutyi abambalwa abakholelwa ukuba lo mzuzu ukufutshane kakhulu nokwenza izinto. Mhlawumbi ngenxa yeziphumo ze amanyathelo okhuselo isetyenziswe nguMongameli wase-United States, uDonald Trump. Ngayiphi na imeko, lo mzuzu usekho ayifikanga kwaye abatyali mali banamaxesha obudala kwigolide kutshintshiselwano olukhulu lwesitokhwe kwihlabathi.
Kufuneka kukhunjulwe ukuba iDow Jones ibisenyuka ngokuthe ngcembe ukusukela ngexesha elinzima elivelisiweyo. ingxaki yezoqoqosho phaya kwiminyaka ye-2017 kunye ne-2008. Kungabikho khefu kwaye kukho izilungiso ezithile, ezinjengezo zivelisiweyo kulo nyaka. Kodwa emva kweeseshoni ezimbalwa zorhwebo, izabelo zalo ziphinde zanyuka kwaye ukuba kunokwenzeka ngamandla amakhulu nangakumbi iphantse ibe yiminyaka esithoba apho ukuphononongwa kwesalathiso sesinye seziganeko ezibalaseleyo zezemali kwiminyaka yakutshanje. Ngokuchaseneyo nemarike yemasheya yaseYurophu ebithandabuza ngakumbi ngeli xesha.
UDow Jones: ngamanqaku angama-26.000
Akukho nto ingaphantsi kokuba ifikelele kwinqanaba lamanqaku angama-26.000, nangaphezulu kwabo kwiiyure zokugqibela. Apho ifayile ye- ukuthenga ii-odolo Zinyanzeliswa ngokucacileyo kwabafazi abathengisayo. Wonke umntu ufuna ukuthenga izabelo kwiDow Jones kwaye ngale ndlela kunzima kakhulu ukuhla. Amandla ayo angaphaya kokuthandabuza, ubuncinci okomzuzwana kwaye ke iminyaka emininzi, emininzi. Izinwele zisetyenziswa ngabatyali mali ukuthenga izabelo ngamaxabiso aphantsi. Apho kungabikho kusilela kwemali engenayo evela kuyo yonke imimandla, hayi eMntla Melika kuphela.
Ngaphandle kwezi ngcamango, kubalulekile ukuhlalutya ukuba lixesha elifanelekileyo lokuvula izikhundla kule marike yemasheya efanelekileyo. Ayiloxesha elifanelekileyo lokungena kuba iimpawu zokuqala zokudinwa zinokwenzeka kwaye oku kuyinto eqhelekileyo kwaye kuqhelekile kwiimarike zezabelo. Njengoko abahlalutyi bezemali besitsho kakuhle, akukho nto inyukayo ngonaphakade nangaphantsi kwimarike yemasheya. Nangona iphantse yalishumi iminyaka kwindawo elungileyo kwaye lelinye lawona maxesha mahle kwimarike yesitokhwe yaseMelika. Abatyalomali bakwazile yenza imali oyongelayo iphantse ibe ngama-90%. Oko kukuthi, ngenzuzo yezigidi zezigidi ezizezona zininzi zamatyala.
Yintoni enokuthintela oku kunyuka?
Zininzi izinto ezinokumisa oku kunyuka okumangalisayo kwii-equities zase-US. Ewe kunjalo, enye yazo ivela kumanyathelo okhuselo amkelweyo kwaye enza utshaba lwayo olukhulu, njengengxelo evela ku Fund International Fund (IMF). Ngale ndlela, amathemba abo kokulandelayo awakhange alunge njengoko bekunjalo ukuza kuthi ga ngoku. Nangona ulungiso, utsho abahlalutyi bezezimali, aluyi kuba nobundlobongela njengakumaxesha angaphambili kwixabiso. Nangona uqikelelo kufuneka lube lolunye lwezinto eziqhelekileyo kwizenzo zakho.
Ngale ngqiqo, inkolelo yeemarike zezemali kukuba i-American stock market ingaba nayo uhambo olukhulu lokuhla ngaphezu kweyaseYurophu. Akumangalisi ukuba oku kungakhange kuvelise ukunyuka okukhulu kwixabiso lezabelo zalo. Ke ngoko, kukho ukubambana okukhulu ukuze amaxabiso awe phantsi ukusukela ngoku. Ngapha koko, enye yeengxoxo ezinkulu phakathi kwabatyali zimali kukuba ingaba kunokuba luncedo ngakumbi ngoku ukungena kwiimarike zesitokhwe zelizwekazi elidala kunaphaya kweAtlantic.
Iingozi zendlela yokubuyela umva
Enye into ekufuneka ithathelwe ingqalelo ukusukela ngoku yimingcipheko enokuthi ivele kutshintsho lwentengiso yaseMelika kwaye, ngakumbi kwi-Dow Jones. Zahlukene ngokwendalo, nangona kufanele kuqatshelwe ukuba akukho mfuneko yokuba zilandelwe. Ukuba akunjalo, zizisongelo ezibi kakhulu kwinkqubela phambili yamashishini aseMelika ekugqibeleni ayeke. Kwaye phakathi kwazo ezo sizityhila ngezantsi zigqamile.
- El ukhuselo olugqithisileyo ukuba umongameli wabo unike uqoqosho lwase-US kwaye balubeka emngciphekweni omkhulu. Nangona mhlawumbi iziphumo zalo zingenakubonwa kwikamva elifutshane kwaye kungabikho nasembindini. Kodwa ngumngcipheko ofihliwe kwaye kukho ukudana kwabatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi.
- La ukwehla kwezoqoqosho umhlaba kwaye ekugqibeleni iyakuchaphazela i-United States uqobo kwaye nangona ibenyusa kangakanani kwiinyanga nje ezidlulileyo. Ngamaqondo okungaqeshwa ancitshiswe asezantsi, kunye nokukhula koqoqosho.
- Imeko ye amazwe asakhulayo Ngomnye weempawu ezinokubangela ubuthathaka obuthile kuqoqosho lwayo. Ngokukodwa ngokubhekisele kwizitokhwe apho igcina khona ubudlelwane obungcono bezorhwebo kwaye inokuba sisizathu sokutsha kwentlekele kwihlabathi.
- Ukoyika Ukugula kwindawo ephezulu okwangoku ibanjwe yimasheya aseMelika. Akunakulityalwa ukuba kukho iminyaka emininzi ngale ndlela iqhubekayo kwaye ngamanye amaxesha kufuneka ime. Akumangalisi ukuba lelona xesha lifanelekileyo kwimarike yemasheya yeli lizwe likhulu kwaye linamandla amancinci angaziwayo kumashumi eminyaka akutshanje.
Ukuxabana ne China
Ngexesha leeseshoni zokugqibela zokuthengisa, uDow Jones wenza inkqubela yeentloni ebangelwa kukungavisisani kwezorhwebo phakathi kweMelika ne China. Ngokubhekiselele kumacandelo anenzuzo enkulu, kufanele kuqatshelwe ukuba eyona nzuzo iphezulu yayiyeye izinto ezisisiseko, Ngaphambili kwezemali kunye namandla (0,38). Ngayiphi na imeko, phakathi kwezihloko ezingama-30 ezidweliswe kwiDow Jones, ukunyuka kweenkampani ezinje ngeCarterpillar, iBoeing kunye neGoldman Sachs (1,31%). Ngoxinzelelo lokuthenga olufanelekileyo kakhulu kwiintsuku zamva nje kwaye ezinokubangela ukhetho lokuthenga kwiinyanga ezizayo.
Kwelinye icala, kukwaphawuleka ukuba okusingqongileyo kolu rhwebo lwezezimali lufanelekileyo kuthintelo ngakumbi kunakwiminyaka embalwa edlulileyo kwaye kwicandelo lobuchwepheshe ngoyena wenzakaliswe kakhulu kulindelo lokukhula kwakhe. Apho ukunyuka kwexabiso leoyile akuchaphazeli amaxabiso abo ngokugqithileyo. Ngayiphi na imeko, ukuthanda ulindelo lweenkampani zeoyile ezinobunzima obuthile kwiDow Jones. Kakhulu kuneemarike zentengiso zelizwekazi elidala ezinezindululo ezimbalwa zokukhetha enye indlela kutyalo-mali.
Ukuziva uzithembile
Ngayiphi na imeko, abatyali mali bayaqhubeka ukukholelwa kumathuba wentengiso yezemali kwaye ngaphandle kwamaxabiso aphezulu kwizabelo zeenkampani ezidwelisiweyo. Ngokuphathelene noku, kufanele kuqatshelwe ukuba kuvavanyo lwamva nje lwabaphathi bengxowa-mali abavela kwiBhanki yaseMelika uMerrill Lynch, iipesenti ezingama-69 zabo baphononongiweyo bathi i-United States ngawona mmandla uthandekayo xa kufikwa Ukulindela umvuzo, inqanaba lerekhodi kwimbali yeminyaka eli-17 yophando. Oku kukuzithemba okukhulu kwinxalenye yenxalenye elungileyo yabatyali mali kwaye bayanceda ukonyuka kwabo ukuba kuqhubeke.
Ngokumalunga nesalathiso sobuchwephesha ngokugqwesa, i NASDAQ. Ngenxa yokunqongophala kwamandla emelwe licandelo lobuchwepheshe. Ngokwehla ngamanye amaxesha okutsala umdla, njengakwimeko ethile yeApple okanye iMicrosoft. Nangona kufuneka kuthathelwe ingqalelo ukuba bavela kwinzuzo ephezulu kakhulu kule minyaka isibhozo idlulileyo, kwaye kwezinye iimeko babonisa inkqubela phambili kufutshane ne-80%. Ipesenti ekunzima kakhulu ukuyifumana kwiimarike zezabelo.
Nangona kunjalo, enye yeengxaki ezinkulu ezityala imali kwi-stock market yase-United States kukuba ukusebenza kwayo kunamakhomishini amaninzi xa kuthelekiswa nelizwe. Into ebuyisa abatyali mali ukwenza imisebenzi kule marike yemali. Ukongeza ekubeni neenkampani ezingaziwa ngabasebenzisi kwaye zikhetha amaxabiso asekhaya.