Yonke into ihlala ifana kumgaqo-lawulo wezemali kummandla we-euro, emva kwentlanganiso yamva nje yokuba KwiBhanki ePhambili yeYurophu (ECB). Kwinkomfa yeendaba, umongameli wayo, u-Mario Draghi, uphawule ukuba intlanganiso yebhunga "ibingasebenzi." Kulapho, iqondo lenzala laliphantsi, phakathi kwe-0% kunye ne-0,4%. I-ECB iphinde yatsho ukuba kulindeleke ukuba "bahlale kumanqanaba akhoyo ubuncinci kude kube sekupheleni kwe-2019." Ngenxa yeli nyathelo, u-Mario Draghi ngokwakhe uza kujongana nokunyuka okuzayo, kuba ixesha lakhe liphela ngo-Okthobha walo nyaka.
Kwelinye icala, ekuphela koncedo lwe-EU kwicandelo lokugcina imali yayikukuba i-ECB yavuma ukuba ifunda ngokusungulwa komjikelo omtsha weefandesi zentengiso yeebhanki. Oko kukuthi, ukukhula kwemali mboleko eneemeko ezintle okanye into efanayo, ngenqanaba lokhuphiswano elinokhuphiswano ngakumbi kunangoku. Kodwa ngokubanzi iyaphoxa indawo entle yabahlalutyi bezemali ababelindele imeko enamandla ngakumbi yokujongana neempawu zamandla oqoqosho kwezoqoqosho kule ndawo.
Kwakukho ulindelo olukhulu kwiimarike ze-equity zokuba ekugqibeleni baphoxeke zizigqibo ze-EU. Ngenxa yeli nyathelo kwinqanaba le-European Central Bank, indlela abasabela ngayo kwiimarike zezemali ibe yenye yezokudana okuphakathi. Nangona ngaphandle kokuqina ekunciphiseni amaxabiso, nkqu nakwicandelo leebhanki okoko ukuwa kwabo kuye kwamodareyitha. Ngokuhla kweyona meko imbi kakhulu eye kwi-1%. Elona candelo lentengiso yesitokhwe lichaphazeleka kakhulu ziingxelo ezenziwe kwibhanki ekhupha iYurophu.
I-ECB: amaxabiso enzala ahlala efanayo
Ngokwenyani konke kuyehla kwinto yokuba amaqondo wenzala kwindawo ye-euro ahlala kwinqanaba elifanayo njengoko bekunjalo ukuza kuthi ga ngoku. Oko kukuthi, kumanqanaba asondele kakhulu kwi-0%, oko kuthetha ukuba ixabiso lemali alikho kwaphela. Ngelixa kwelinye icala, le meko yemali yokuba iikhredithi zibonisa imeko entle kakhulu kubafakizicelo. Ngesizathu esilula, kwaye oko kukunceda ufezekise iimfuno ngakumbi ngokuhambelana nolindelo lwakho. Okanye yintoni efanayo ngemali engabizi kakhulu eya kuthi ibancede ukuze inqanaba lamatyala lingabikho phezulu, ubuncinci kwixesha elifutshane.
Ngelixa kwelinye icala, esi sicwangciso-qhinga semali asithandeki kangako kwimidla yamaqela ezemali kuba aya kufumana izibonelelo ezincinci ekuvelisweni kwawo onke amatyala etyala. Ewe kunjalo, le nto iyakuba nefuthe ngqo kwingxelo yakho yengeniso kwikota nganye kwaye ngale ndlela inokuchaphazela ixabiso lezabelo zakho kwiimarike zezabelo. Ekugqibeleni, abatyali mali baya kuchaphazeleka kakhulu ngala manyathelo athathwe kwi-European Central Bank.
Impembelelo kumacandelo emarike yemasheya
Alithandabuzeki elokuba nayiphi na imilinganiselo yemali okanye utshintsho lubonakaliswa kwiimarike zezabelo. Kwaye inokuba ngaphantsi njani, nale inokwenzeka ngokufanayo. Ngamanye amacandelo esitokhwe aphuma abaphumeleleyo kunye nabaphulukene nale mpikiswano kwimali ephezulu. Ngaphandle kokunye ukuthathelwa ingqalelo kobuchwephesha bendalo kwaye mhlawumbi nakwindawo yokujonga izinto ezisisiseko. Ngolungelelwaniso oluvakalayo kumaxabiso ezabelo adweliswe kwimarike yemasheya, njengokuba kwelinye icala kusengqiqweni ukucinga ukuba kwenzeka ntoni kwezi ntsuku.
Ngale ndlela, kufanele ukuba kukhankanywe ukuba icandelo elichaphazeleka kakhulu kukungakwazi ukuhamba kwi-European Central Bank ziibhanki. Nangona indlela abasabela ngayo ibingakhange ibe yinto embi enokulindeleka kwezi meko. Ngokwehla okuncinci okukhokelele kumaxabiso eebhanki asezantsi nangaphezulu kunasekuqaleni konyaka. Esi sesona sizathu sokuba abanye abatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi bagqibe ekubeni bathathe izikhundla kwicandelo ukuzama ukwenza imisebenzi yabo ibe nenzuzo ngexesha elincinci okanye elincinci.
Ezokukhetha izinto ziyaphumelela
Ngokuchasene noko, iinkampani zombane ngabaphumeleleyo ngokucacileyo kule meko ngokubanzi benenqanaba eliphantsi kakhulu lenzala kwaye kufutshane ne-0%. Ngenxa yesizathu esilula kakhulu sokuchaza kwaye kungenxa yenqanaba eliphezulu letyala eziye zangenwa zezi nkampani. Ngoku kuyabaxhamla kakhulu ukuba le meko iyaqhubeka, ubuncinci kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ukuzama ukuhlawula ityala labo ngeemeko ezingcono ekuqeshweni kwabo. Ziindaba ezimnandi ezi ekufuneka zifunyenwe ziinkampani ezidwelisiweyo zeli candelo libalulekileyo lezabelo kweli. Kodwa inyani ibisahlukile ngokwenene.
Ukwanda ekudala kulindelwe kwiinkampani ezikwicandelo lombane akwenzekanga ngenxa yenyani ekulula ukuyiqonda kwaye kukuba ezi modeli zikhuphuke kakhulu kwiinyanga ezidlulileyo. Ngezivuno ukuya kuthi ga kwi-30% kwezinye iimeko kwaye ziye zahlaziya ipotifoliyo yenxalenye elungileyo yabatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi. Ukuya kumanqanaba awathelekisekiyo kwiminyaka nje embalwa edlulileyo. Awunakulibala ukuba ezinye zeenkampani ngoku zikwimeko yokunyuka kweepawundi. Yeyona nto ilungileyo inokwenzeka kukhuseleko lweemarike zezabelo. Akumangalisi ukuba, bengasekho bachasayo kufanelekileyo ngaphambili.
Uqikelelo lwalo nyaka
Uqikelelo olwenziwe lisebe lohlalutyo lweBhanki ngokuhamba kwemali lihamba kwicala elinye. Njengokuba umjikelo uphelelwa ngamandla kwi-EMU, ngenxa yemfuno ephantsi engaphantsi. I-GDP inyuke yaya kwi-2,1% kwi-Q2, xa kuthelekiswa ne-2,4% kwi-Q1 kunye + 2,5% nge-avareji ngo-2017. Ukuthumela ngaphandle kuhamba kancinci ukuya + 3,2% vs + 5,5% ngowama-2017. Izikhokelo ezikhokelayo nokuzithemba zimodareyitha ireyithi yokwehla, emva kweenyanga zokuhla.
Ngayiphi na imeko, bahlala kumanqanaba aphezulu, avumela ukuzithemba ekuqhubekeni komjikelo obanzi. "Ingqikelelo yethu yokukhula kowama-2019 ngoku yi-1,8% xa kuthelekiswa ne-1,9% ngaphambili." Bakwachaza ukuba “Asilindelanga ukuba i-ECB itshintshe indlela yayo. Ukuthengwa kweeasethi (i-15.000 yezigidi zeerandi ngenyanga) kuya kuphela ngoDisemba. Ngaphandle kokuphela kweQE, umgaqo-lawulo wemali uyakuqhubekeka ukulungiselelwa, ngotyalo-mali lokuvuthwa kwakhona nokukhokelwa phambili kumazinga enzala. Ngokubhekisele kwixabiso lentengo, eyona nto iphambili kwi-CPI (+ 0,9%) isekude kwithagethi ye-ECB (kufutshane kodwa ingezantsi kwe-2%). Nangona kunjalo, uxinzelelo lweendleko kwimvelaphi yangaphakathi (iindleko zemivuzo,…) ziyanda, nto leyo inciphisa ukungaqiniseki malunga nokuziphendukela kwexesha elizayo.
Utshintsho ekupheleni konyaka
Uqikelelo lwebhanki yaseSpain luhambelana nenyani yokuba malunga nenqanaba lesalathiso, sinokubona intshukumo yokuqala eya esiphelweni se-2019 ukusuka kwi-0,0% yangoku ukuya kwi-0,10%. Kwi-2020 sibona ukonyuka okuthe chu okuya kuthi kubeke ireyithi ekubhekiswa kuyo malunga ne-0,40% ekupheleni konyaka. Kancinci kuqikelelo lwakho olukhulayo oluvela kwi-European Central Bank, njengoko ibonakalisiwe kwintlanganiso yokugqibela yequmrhu elilawulayo lebhanki ekhupha ilizwekazi lakudala.
Kuya kuba ngalo mzuzu kanye, apho banokuthi bajike iitafile kumacandelo emivuzo eyahlukileyo yesizwe. Ngengqondo yokuba iibhanki zinokuphinda ziqhubeke nendlela ephezulu ababeyishiye kwiminyaka emininzi eyadlulayo. Ukuba lelinye lamacandelo apho kuye kufuneke ukuba ubekwe endaweni yakho ukuze wonge ingeniso ngempumelelo enkulu. Kuba kulindeleke ukonyuka okubalulekileyo kumaxabiso abo. Ukuya kwinqanaba lokuba inokuba lelinye lawona macandelo anenzuzo ukuqala kunyaka olandelayo. Ngokukodwa kuthathelwa ingqalelo inqanaba lamaxabiso abathengisa ngalo mzuzu kanye.
Utshintsho olukhulu kwimarike yemasheya
Ngelixa kwelinye icala, ayinakulityalwa ukuba le nto iya kuwathoba amacandelo emarike yemasheya abonisa amatyala amakhulu, afana neenkampani zombane, njengoko besesitshilo ngaphambili. Ukuba banokungena ekucuthekeni okuyingozi kakhulu ekujongeni umdla wabatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi abathathe izikhundla kwicandelo. Kwimeko eyahluke ngokupheleleyo kule ihlalwayo ngalo mzuzu. Esi sesinye sezizathu zokuba kufuneka utyalomali kwimarike yemasheya kuthathwe ngokuvavanya ukusebenza kwexesha elifutshane. Ukuthintela iimeko ezingafunekiyo kwinxalenye esebenzayo yazo.
Le ndlela kufuneka isikhokele ekubeni sitshintshe isicwangciso-qhinga sethu kulwakhiwo lwezikhundla zokhuseleko. Ngokusebenzisa imodeli yolawulo esebenzayo esivumela ukuba siziqhelanise nazo zonke iimeko ezinokubakho zoqoqosho. Zombini ezithandekayo kwaye ezo azikho kangako. Apho kuyo nayiphi na imeko, amathuba oshishino aya kuqhubeka ukubonakala kwiimarike ze-equity ukuze zingachithwa ngabasebenzisi. Ukuya kwinqanaba lokuba inokuba lelinye lawona macandelo anenzuzo ukuqala kunyaka olandelayo. Ngokukodwa kuthathelwa ingqalelo inqanaba lamaxabiso abathengisa ngalo mzuzu kanye.