Amanqanaba emidla aya kunyuka kude kube sisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2020

I-European Central Bank (ECB) ithathe isigqibo ngalo Lwesine ukuba igcine inzala ingatshintshi kude kube Isiqingatha sokuqala se-2020. Ngamanye amagama, iqondo lenzala elisebenza kweyona misebenzi iphambili yokuxhasa kwakhona imali kunye nexabiso lenzala elisebenza kwizibonelelo eziselubala zekhredithi kunye nendawo yokugcina imali iya kuhlala ingatshintshanga kwi-0%, 0,25% kunye -0,40, XNUMX%, ngokwahlukeneyo nakwindawo yonke ye-euro . Umlinganiso, ongalindelwanga, uphinde wanceda ukuthengisa iimarike ezifumene iindaba kakuhle ngokuphakathi.

“Igalelo elincomekayo lenqanaba lenzala elibi kumanyano oluzinzileyo lokonyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nendawo yokuma ayithathelwa phantsi ziziphumo ezinokubakho kulamlo lwebhanki. Nangona kunjalo, sizakuqhubeka nokubeka iliso kule meko ”, utshilo. Mario Draghi, Mongameli weBhanki eNkulu yaseYurophu (i-ECB), ukuthethelela esi sigqibo. Nangona kuyinyani ukuba ayizizo zonke ii-equities zaseYurophu ezifumene umlinganiso woLuntu ngehlombe elifanayo.

Ngayiphi na imeko, esi sigqibo sithathiweyo ngaphakathi kwe-ECB siculwe emva kokupapashwa kwedatha yezoqoqosho. Apho kukho ukwehla okucacileyo kuqoqosho kwindawo ye-euro kwaye apho amanye amazwe sele ekwimimandla engathandekiyo. Nantsi into eyenzekayo kwi EJamani nase-Itali kwaye ngale meko, akukho enye into enokwenziwa ngomgaqo-lawulo wemali. Ngamanye amagama, ubuncinci kulo nyaka siza kuqhubeka kwimeko enye kwaye oku kuhlala kuziindaba ezimnandi kubatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi.

Inzala kwi-0% ngo-2019

Isikhundla esithathiweyo sisiphumo samathemba ahluphekileyo okukhula koqoqosho kwindawo ye-euro. Nangona kwesi sihlandlo, iBhanki eNkulu yaseYurophu iphinde yajonga kwakhona uqikelelo lwezoqoqosho kude kube ngu-2021, ukukhula kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Ngale ndlela, kufanele kugxininiswe ukuba i-2018 iphele ngexabiso lentengo kwindawo ye-euro ye-1,8%, ngelixa ngokuchaseneyo, ukukhula kwakungu-1,8%. Uqikelelo olwenziwe yi-ECB ngo-2019 luqhubela phambili ukukhula ukusuka kwi-1,1% ukuya kwi-1,2%, ngelixa ithotyiwe isuka kwi-1,6% ukuya kwi-1,4% kunyaka we-2020 nakwi-1,5% ukuya kwi-1,4, XNUMX% kwisithuba seminyaka emibini.

Ngale datha isetafileni, khange kwenzeke ukuba kuthathwe esinye isigqibo semali kwaye kuyo nayiphi na imeko ibingaphezulu komlinganiso olindelekileyo kwiimarike zezabelo kwilizwekazi elidala. Nangona ekupheleni kweseshoni yorhwebo iimarike zentengiso zinazo ndahlala ndithe nca emva kwethemba lokuqala. Ngomhla xa imarike yemasheya isukile phezulu yaya ezantsi kwaye ngoku okusahlalutywayo yimpembelelo yokwehla kokukhula koqoqosho, ngokulungiswa kweshumi leepesenti kulindelo lwayo kule minyaka mithathu izayo. Kwaye le nto ayisathandi abatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi kakhulu.

Ukwamkelwa okungalinganiyo kumaxabiso

Impendulo yee-equities zesizwe khange ifane, kude nayo. Ibizezona zixabiso licandelo lezombane lifumene esona sigqibo sihle sokuba amaqondo wenzala awanyuki kude kube sisiqingatha sokuqala sika 2020. Ngokunyuka koqwalaselo lwamaxabiso abo ukusuka kwi-1% ukuya kwi-2%. Kwaye apho utsalo olomeleleyo oluphezulu oluye lwenziwa ngu-Endesa (+ 2%) lubonakala, olube malunga ne-23 euro ngesabelo ngasinye kwaye sele ikufutshane kakhulu nenani lokunyuka simahla. Le yeyona nto ibalaseleyo kuko konke ngenxa yokuba engasenayo inkcaso phambili kwaye unendlela ecacileyo yokujongana ne-20 okanye i-25 ye-euro ubuncinci.

Ngale ndlela, isebe lohlalutyo lweBhanki libeke kwaye laqinisa i-Endesa kwipotfoliyo yezokhuseleko kwinyanga kaJuni. Ukucinga ukuba inokuba lelinye lamaxabiso aphambili anokusebenza kwiinyanga ezizayo kwisalathiso esikhethiweyo sezabelo zamazwe. Emva kokuba elungise izikhundla zakhe ngokuya kwi-euro ezingama-22, edala ukuthandabuza phakathi kwabatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi. Ngoku ifuna nje ukuba ikwazi ukoyisa ukuxhathisa okuntsonkothileyo okukufutshane namanqanaba 23, 35 euro ngesabelo ngasinye.

I-electrics ekhokelayo

Alithandabuzeki elokuba inyani yokuba inzala ayizukunyuka kude kube sisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2020 esizenze kakuhle zonke iinkampani zombane. Ibe ngabo abakhokele ukonyuka kwe-Ibex 35 ngokucaca okuphezulu ukusuka ekuqaleni. Ayothusi into yokuba la manyathelo emali thanda imigca yakho yeshishini kwaye ke ngenxa yoko abakwazanga ukwenza enye into ngaphandle kokuxabisa kwiimarike zezemali. Ngoxinzelelo lokuthenga olunamandla kwizikhundla ezimfutshane. Ukuba licandelo eliphumelelayo kule mpikiswano ekhoyo kwiimarike zezemali.

Ngelixa kwelinye icala, inyani yokuba ekupheleni kwale nyanga kunye neentsuku zokuqala zikaJulayi baya kwabela phakathi kwabanini zabelo Isahlulo esimanzi. Ngomvuzo ophakathi phakathi kwe-5,5% kunye ne-7%, ngentlawulo ye-akhawunti emiselweyo kwaye iqinisekisiwe. Ukuze ngale ndlela, abatyali mali bangakha iphothifoliyo yengeniso esisigxina ngaphakathi kokungafaniyo, nokuba kwenzeka ntoni kwiimarike zezemali. Njengesicwangciso sotyalo-mali sokuphucula uzinzo lokonga oluzinzileyo lwexesha eliphakathi nelide elinokuphucula inzuzo yokonga kula maxesha.

Iibhanki ziyenza mandundu

Ngelixa ngokuchaseneyo, ziibhanki eziye zaneyona ntsebenzo imbi emva kwesigqibo sokuba inzala ayizukunyuka kude kube sisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2020. abo bakhoyo imbi kakhulu kwishishini lakho. Ngenxa yokuba inzuzo yabo incitshisiwe ngenxa yokwehla kwemida yokungenelela njengoko ixabiso lemali likwi-0%. Ngamanye amagama, inefuthe elibi kakhulu kumgca wayo weshishini kwaye oku kuguqulele kwixabiso lokuhla kwamaxabiso ezabelo.

Kwelinye icala, ii-stock cyclical ngamanye amaxhoba aphambili kwesi sigqibo ngaphakathi kwe-ECB. Kungenxa yokuba ukuncipha kwimisebenzi yeshishini sisibetho esibi kulindelo lwakho lwentengiso yemasheya. Yile nto yenzekayo ngalo mzuzu kunye neenkampani ezinxulunyaniswe nesinyithi kunye nezinye izinyithi ezisisiseko ezingakhange zilifumane kakuhle eli nyathelo lemali. Ngokuhla okubhengeziweyo kwiimarike zamashishini ezemali zamashishini ezingenanzala emisiweyo kuzwelonke nangaphandle kwemida yethu. Apho inzala yenxalenye yabatyali mali abancinci naphakathi iye yehla kakhulu emva kwengxelo yeECB.

Ukuphendula kwezinye iiasethi eziyimali

Ii-asethi eziyimali esele nazo zibekiwe kwiimarike zemali kule seshoni. Apho i-euro ixabise malunga ne-0,8% ngokuchasene nedola yaseMelika ukuya kuthi ga kwi-1,1265. Ngelixa kwelinye icala, ipremiyamu yomngcipheko waseSpain yehle nge-5% ukuya kuma-82 amanqaku, nangona ishiyekile kwimbali ephikisana nokunyuka kwengeniso esisigxina yase-Italiya. Ngokubhekisele kwezinye iimarike zezemali, kufanele kuqatshelwe ukuba ioyile yaseBrent iwele kumanqanaba eedola ezingama-60 umphanda. Ukuba zezi ntengiso zorhwebo bezisebenza kakhulu imini yonke.

Ngayiphi na imeko, alikafiki ixesha lokuthatha isikhundla kwiimarike ze-equity. Ukuba akunjalo, ngokuchaseneyo, elona manyathelo lobulumko kukuba Isperar ukumisela imeko yokugqibela eya kuthathwa ziimarike zezabelo. Ukuze ngale ndlela kuthathwe isigqibo sokuzonwabisa ngakumbi nesingachaphazeliyo kwaye ngenxa yoko akukho ndawo iphosakeleyo, eyona nto iphambili malunga noku.

Ukwanda kokungazinzi

Ngelixa kwelinye icala, asinakho ukuba sele sijamelene neenyanga zehlobo apho i umthamo wekhontrakthi iyancitshiswa ngokubonakalayo. Kwaye ezi ayizondaba zimnandi kubatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi. Ukuba akunjalo ngokuchaseneyo ukusukela ukuba ukungazinzi kuqwalaselo lwamaxabiso ezokhuseleko kuphezulu kakhulu kunangoku. Ngumahluko obaluleke kakhulu phakathi kwamaxabiso aphezulu kunye neyona isezantsi.

Ilungele ngakumbi urhwebo okanye lwenziwe kwiseshoni enye yorhwebo kwaye efuna isantya esikhulu kwiintshukumo ezithathwe ngabatyali mali. Kuyo nayiphi na imeko, kuyakufuneka ukuba ulumke kakhulu ekusebenzeni kwimeko yangoku yeemarike zezabelo, kokubini kuzwelonke nangaphandle kwemida yethu. Kwinyani ebekiweyo kwezi nyanga zidlulileyo.

Ngelixa ngokuchaseneyo, ziibhanki eziye zaneyona ntsebenzo imbi emva kwesigqibo sokuba inzala ayizukunyuka kude kube sisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2020. abo bakhoyo imbi kakhulu kwishishini lakho.


Umxholo wenqaku uyabambelela kwimigaqo yethu imigaqo yokuziphatha yokuhlela. Ukuxela impazamo cofa apha.

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