Yintoni ibhabhu yezoqoqosho?

obusenza Enye yeemeko ezothuswa kakhulu ngabatyali mali yinto ebizwa ngokuba bubble yezoqoqosho. Ayothusi into yokuba yinkqubo ekhokelela ekubalulekeni idipha kwiimarike ingeniso eguquguqukayo. Azikho rhoqo, kodwa xa zivela awunakukhetha ngaphandle kokuba ubekho nakweyiphi na indawo engxoweni. Ukuncitshiswa kwamaxabiso izabelo zinamandla kakhulu kwaye zinokuhla ziye kumanqanaba amancinci. Ukuza kuthi ga kwinqanaba lokuba banokuthathwa baxhamle ngabatyalomali abaziqikelelayo.

Nangona kunjalo, ayingabo bonke abatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi abayaziyo eyona ntsingiselo. Ewe, ukuze ucace gca ukusukela ngoku ukuya phambili kuya kufuneka uyazi ukuba ibhabhu yezoqoqosho, ekwabizwa ngokuba yimali, yi intsebenzo utshintsho lesitokhwe Oko kwenzeka xa kukho ifuthe elibi kwiimarike zezemali. Nokuba yeyiphi na indlela, kwaye oku kubi kakhulu, amaqamza avela nangaphandle kokungaqiniseki kwaye ngaphandle kweemeko zokuthelekelela. Nangona kula maxesha okugqibela zinzima ngakumbi ukufunyanwa ziiarhente ezahlukileyo zemali.

Enye into ekufuneka uyazi ngoku kukuba le meko yezoqoqosho iya isiba yinto eqhelekileyo kwiinkqubo ze ulungelelwaniso lwamaxabiso. Into eqondwa ngcono njengakwimeko ethile ekuthiwa bubble estate, inovakalelo eSpain kule minyaka idlulileyo. Kwelinye icala, luphawu oluvela njengesiphumo sexesha lobungangamsha okanye lokuqaqamba kwezoqoqosho. Emva kwexesha lokukhula koqoqosho phantse kuhlala kusandulela imeko esithetha ngayo kweli nqaku.

Bubble: inokuphela ngokuqhekeka

Inyaniso enomdla kakhulu malunga nebhola yezoqoqosho kukuba inokuphela kwingozi yemali enokuthi ichithe isixa esikhulu sobutyebi kwilizwe. Njengoko kwenzekile kwiminyaka yakutshanje nge Uxinzelelo olukhulu yee-1930 kunye ne-real estate bubble eJapan kwiminyaka ye-1990. Le yimizekelo echaza kakuhle le ntshukumo yemali ibakhathaza kakhulu abatyali-mali. Phakathi kwezinye izizathu kuba banokulahlekelwa yimali eninzi kwimisebenzi yabo kwimarike yemasheya. Ngaphaya kokunye ukuqwalaselwa kobuchwephesha kwaye kwanakwindawo yokujonga esisiseko yeemarike zezemali.

Ngokubhekisele kubume babo, baneendlela ezahlukeneyo zokuziphatha kwaye zisebenza ngokweli candelo lilandelayo esikubonisa lona: rational, ngaphakathi Kwaye kude kubize nokuba kuyosulela. Nangona le yokugqibela inezinto ezininzi zengqondo ngaphezulu kwezinye iindlela zoqoqosho olukhulu. Iphawuleka ngenxa yokuba le nyani yandulelwa kwinqanaba elibalulekileyo. Apho abathengi baqala ukunqaba khona, kwaye abanye abatyali mali baqala ukuthengisa izikhundla zabo kwiimarike zemali. Ukuze uphele kuqhambuko oloyikekayo okanye kwikota ungabazi ngcono njengokuphahlazeka, nangona uneenkumbulo ezimbi kubatyali mali.

Ungakufumanisa njani ukugqabhuka?

Xa oko kubizwa ngokuba bubble kwezoqoqosho kuveliswa kukho uthotho lweempawu ezibonisa ukuba sijamelene neli lizwe libuthathaka kuqoqosho lwelizwe okanye kwihlabathi liphela. Kulula ukuziqonda kwaye ngaphezulu kwayo yonke loo nto isekwe kwimiqondiso elandelayo yokuba sikuveze apha ngezantsi ukuze ube nokucaca kancinci ngale ntshukumo ikhethekileyo yezoqoqosho.

  • Ukuwa ngokubanzi yeemarike zezabelo, ngamanqanaba anokuba namandla kakhulu kwaye ahamba nenqanaba eliphezulu lesivumelwano. Kwiiveki ezimbalwa, ixabiso lezabelo liyehla kakhulu.
  • El ukusetyenziswa kuyancipha Ngokukodwa kwinqanaba lokuba ingabeka uqoqosho lwelizwe okanye indawo yejografi emngciphekweni. Abasebenzisi bachitha imali encinci bethenga izinto zenkonzo, bakhuphe imali mboleko encinci kwaye bachitha imali encinci kuthengiso lwabo oluqhelekileyo. Ngokukhuthaza ukonga ngaphezulu kwezinye izinto.
  • Ukukhula koqoqosho kwehlela kumanqanaba anokuthathwa njengayingozi kakhulu. Ayothusi into yokuba kuqhelekile ukuba bangene ukukhula okungalunganga iitrimester ezininzi okanye iminyaka njengakumazwe asahlumayo. Yeyona nto iphazamisayo kumaqamza ezemali okanye ezoqoqosho.
  • El iparo iyakhula xa le meko yezoqoqosho isenzeka, kwamanye amazwe eneepesenti ekunokuba nzima kakhulu ukuba oorhulumente bazicinge. Ngokukodwa apho kukho iingxaki eziqwalaselwa njengokwakhiwa, umzekelo eSpain. Ngamanqanaba angaphezulu kwama-20%, njengoko kwenzekileyo kwintlekele yoqoqosho yokugqibela, ngo-2007 nango-2008.
  • Isiphithiphithi kwi iimarike zemali Yenye yezona zinto zixhaphakileyo kwezi meko zinzima kuqoqosho. Umahluko phakathi kwelona xabiso liphezulu kunye nelona xabiso lincinci kwiseshoni enye yokurhweba enokuthi igqithe kumanqanaba e-10% okanye nangakumbi ngamandla kwiintshukumo ezichaziweyo zezi asethi zemali.

Iziphumo zale ntshukumo

izabelo Alithandabuzeki elokuba iqamza lezoqoqosho linokuba neziphumo ezibi kuluntu ngokubanzi. Oku kubangelwa kukuba ukunyuka okungaqhelekanga kunye nokuhlala ixesha elide Ixabiso lezabelo ezithile okanye iarhente yokuthengiswa kwezindlu nomhlaba ibangela ukwanda kokuqikelela okuphela kutshabalalisa uqoqosho. Ibhola yezoqoqosho ayinalo ixesha elimiselweyo. Ukuba akunjalo, ngokuchaseneyo, inokuhlala kwiinyanga ezimbalwa (nangona le meko ingaqhelekanga) ukuya kwiminyaka emininzi kwaye itshabalalise uqoqosho lwamanye amazwe okanye ubuncinci ezinye izizwe emhlabeni.

Kwelinye icala, kuqhelekile ukuba xa sithetha ngale ntshukumo yezoqoqosho kubonakala ngathi sibhekisa ngqo kwingxaki okanye kwiqhekeza lokuthengiswa kwezindlu. Kodwa isithintelo kukuba akukho mfuneko yokuba badibane, kude nayo. Nangona zingqinelana nemvelaphi yayo kuba ichaze kakuhle imeko engalawulwa ngabahlalutyi bezezimali kunye nodumo olukhulu kwiimarike. Akumangalisi ukuba imvelaphi yamabhulebhu emali ihlala iqikelela. Ukuqikelela kubandakanya ukufumana i-asethi okanye imveliso ngenjongo yokuyithengisa kamva ngexabiso eliphezulu.

Umthetho wonikezelo kunye nemfuno

nikela Ngayiphi na imeko, kukho uthotho lweempawu ezinokukunika isixhobo esithile kutoliko lwaso. Njengakwimeko ethile yokuba amaqamza ezemali yinto yezoqoqosho equka ukungangqinelani okuqinileyo phakathi konikezelo kunye nemfuno. Xa oku kusenzeka, kudala impembelelo ebaluleke kakhulu kuqoqosho lwelizwe okanye kwihlabathi liphela, njengoko bekunjalo kwiminyaka yakutshanje ngeengxaki zoqoqosho. Azichaphazeli ilizwe elithile, kodwa kunoko Iindawo zoqoqosho ezinkulu kakhulu, ngokomzekelo inokuba kwindawo ye-euro.

Enye into ekufuneka ithathelwe ingqalelo ukusukela ngoku isekwe kwinto yokuba, ukuya kuthi ga kwinqanaba elithile, ezo ntshukumo zibukhali zinokubonakala kuqoqosho lwamazwe aphesheya. Kuba, eneneni, kukukhula okuthe xhaxhe kwexabiso, elinokubonakala ngathi kukuthabatheka kwebhola, akusayi kungqinelana nebhabhalaza. Ukusuka kule ndlela, kubandakanya uthotho lweengxaki kwi- ukuxilonga ngokuchanekileyo yintoni iqabunga lezi mpawu. Ngaphandle kweempawu zayo ezisisiseko kwaye oko kunokudideka kunye nezinye iintshukumo zemali zobunzima obukhethekileyo kodwa ezingabi bubble yezemali okanye ezoqoqosho

Iindlela zentengiso

idonga isitalato Ngayiphi na imeko, kuya kufuneka uyazi ukusukela ngoku ukuba iimarike zentengiso zibonisa imikhwa ehambelana namaqamza emali. Ngokuka-Dow, umyili we-New York Dow-Jones index, imarike yestokhwe ibonisa iindlela ezintathu: eyona nto iphambili kuyo, imeko yesibini kunye nenqanaba lesithathu. Kukwindawo yokugqibela apho iqamza esithetha ngalo linokwenzeka. Ayothusi into yokuba iphawuleka ngaphezulu kwayo yonke le nto ngenxa yokuba indlela ekumgangatho ophezulu iyahambelana nokuhla nokunyuka kwamaxabiso aveliswe ngexesha leseshoni enye kwimarike yemasheya.

Kwelinye icala, kufanele ukuba kuqatshelwe koku ukuba inyani yokuba intengiso yezemali Ukugqithisa kunye nokuthengisa kunyanzeliswa ngamandla okhethekileyo yenye yeempawu ezinokuthi ziqokelelwe okanye zifunyanwe ngolu hlobo lwamaqamza. Apho kukho ukuwa okubukhali kunye noloyiko phakathi kwabatyali mali, ukuya kuthi ga kwinqanaba lokuba baya kuthengisa ngezikhundla zabo kwiimarike ze-equity kwaneendleko zokuphulukana nemali eninzi kutyalo-mali lwabo.

Ezinye izizathu zokubonakala kwayo

Nangona kunjalo, kukho eminye imithombo yohlalutyo echaza le nyaniso ibalulekileyo okanye umcimbi wezoqoqosho. Njengomzekelo, yi uhlalutyo olungenangqondo, Isekwe kuphela kumvuzo ofunyenwe kwi-asethi edlulileyo. Ngaphandle kwalo naliphi na ixesha kuthathelwa ingqalelo icandelo lohlalutyo olusisiseko lweeasethi eziyimali. Kwaye oko kungakhokelela kwiziphumo ezingafunekiyo kwicala labatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi. Ngaphaya kokunye ukuqwalaselwa kobuchwephesha kwaye kwanakwindawo yokujonga esisiseko

Apho kunokwenzeka ukuba kwiimarike ezigqithileyo, kunye nemeko yethemba elingummangaliso, kungakhokelela kuluvo lwabatyali mali lokuba ezi meko azizukutshintsha ixesha elide. Ukuza kuthi ga kwinqanaba lokudala iimeko ezingalunganga kwaphela kwizenzo zabatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi. Apho banokulahlekelwa ngaphezulu kunokuzuza.


Umxholo wenqaku uyabambelela kwimigaqo yethu imigaqo yokuziphatha yokuhlela. Ukuxela impazamo cofa apha.

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  1. Uxanduva lwedatha: UMiguel Ángel Gatón
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  3. Umthetho: Imvume yakho
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