Uhlalutyo lobugcisa kwimarike yemasheya yaphuhliswa kuthathelwa ingqalelo Iithiyori zikaCharles Henry Dow's Market Market. Injongo yayo kukuqikelela ixabiso lexa elizayo lezabelo, izinto ezingafunekiyo, ikamva kunye nokukhuseleka okuthengiswayo; kuthathelwa ingqalelo amaxabiso angaphambili kunye nokusebenza kwala maxabiso.
Uhlalutyo lobuchwephesha luya kusebenza kumthetho wonikezelo kunye nebango ukuze ukwazi ukuqonda nokuqonda ngokufanelekileyo ukuba isebenza njani imarike yemasheya kunye neemarike zesitokhwe, kunye nokukwazi ukubona izinto esele zikho.
Iitshathi zisetyenziselwa ukuqikelela amaxabiso exesha elizayo.
Las Iingcamango zeDow Ngokumalunga notyalo-mali, ziya kuba sisiseko solu hlalutyo, kwaye ziya kwenza ukuba kube lula ukuba kufundwe iimarike zezemali.
Ukufuna iziphumo ezikhawulezayo ikakhulu lolona hlobo lokufunda, kodwa kusekhoUhlalutyo olusisiseko”, Eziza kugxila kwixesha elide, idatha yezemali yeminyaka emininzi.
Ukuphonononga nokufunda iitshathi zamaxabiso esitokhwe kunye neegrafu ngumsebenzi ekuya kufuneka umhlalutyi awenze ukuze abone ukuhla kwexabiso phakathi kweminye imiba. Kuya kufuneka kwakhona ukuqonda iikhonsepthi zenkxaso kunye nokumelana. Makhe sihlolisise ezi kunye nezinye iziqulatho ezingezantsi.
Izinto ezisisiseko ezilawula uHlaziyo loBugcisa
Iindawo eziphambili ekusekwe kuzo uhlalutyo lobuchwephesha ziya kuba:
- Ixabiso lihlawula yonke into.
- Amaxabiso azakube ehamba ngohambo.
- Imbali iyaziphinda.
Umgaqo wokuqala (Amaxabiso anciphisa yonke into), Iya kuba yi isiseko sohlalutyo lobugcisa.
Qwalasela zonke izinto eziya kuchaphazela intengiso; ezoqoqosho, ezokuqikelela, ezopolitiko, ezentlalo njl., ziboniswa kwizenzo zamaxabiso.
Oku kugqiba ekubeni xa kuthengiswa ixabiso lentengiso yentengiso, isixa sezinto ezinxulumene nemarike efundisiweyo ziya kuhlaziywa ngokungagqibekanga, nangona kungenjalo ngokuthe ngqo.
Ixabiso izakubonisa utshintsho kwi ukulingana phakathi konikezelo kunye nemfuno.
Ukuba ixabiso liyonyuka, kuyakubakho kuba ibango lingaphezulu konikezelo, kwaye ukuba liwile, unikezelo luya kuba ngaphezulu kwebango.
Xa uhlalutyo lobuchwephesha lwenziwa, ayizami ukwamkela ezo zinto zibangela utshintsho, kodwa kunoko kuya kucazululwa iziphumo zolo tshintsho, ziya kuba ngamaxabiso.
Ngokumalunga nomxholo wokuhamba, "Amaxabiso azakuhamba kwindlela ezenzeka ngayo", Kufuneka iqatshelwe into yokuba kuhlalutyo lobuchwephesha injongo kukuchonga imeko kwinqanaba layo lokuqala, ukuze kusekwe imisebenzi kwangelo cala linye.
Ngokufunda ixesha elidlulileyo, ikamva linokuqondwa. Oku kuchaza isiseko "Imbali iyaziphinda."
Ulwakhiwo lobuchwephesha olunokuthi lubonwe kwiigrafu, luza njengesiphumo sokuqikelelwa okanye kwintengiso ye-bearish yentengiso, kwaye iya kuba notyekelo lokuziphatha okufanayo phantsi kweemeko ezifanayo okanye ezifanayo.
Uhlalutyo lobuGcisa vs Uhlalutyo olusisiseko
Njengoko sibonile kwisiseko, "Ixabiso lihlawula yonke into”, Iziganeko ezinokuthi zichaphazele isenzo sentengiso, ziya kuba zizaphulelo kubunzima bexabiso. Oko bekuthethiwe, emva koko kuthathelwa ingqalelo ukuba akuyi kuba yimfuneko ukwazi izinto ezisisiseko okanye iindaba eziya kubangela inyathelo lamaxabiso, endaweni yoko kuya kuba ngokwaneleyo Uhlalutyo lweegrafu.
Ngexesha Uhlalutyo lobugcisa Iya kugxila ekufundeni isenzo sentengiso, uhlalutyo olusisiseko luya kugxila kwimikhosi yezoqoqosho yokubonelela kunye nebango eliya kuthi lihambise ixabiso ukunyuka, lihlale linjalo okanye liwe.
Le ndlela iya kuba kukuhlalutya ezo zinto zichaphazelekayo ezinokuchaphazela ixabiso lesixhobo semali ukumisela ixabiso langaphakathi lesixhobo esichaziweyo.
Ezi ndlela zimbini zizama ukusombulula ingxaki efanayo: qikelela amaxabiso exesha elizayo ngandlela thile, nganye nganye eyenzayo ngeendlela ezahlukeneyo okanye ngeendlela ezahlukeneyo.
Abaxhasi beemfundiso ezisisiseko bazakufunda oonobangela bentshukumo kunye nabahlalutyi bobuchwephesha baya kugxila kwiziphumo zayo.
Iingcamango zeDow
UCharles H. Dow, ngasekupheleni kwenkulungwane yeshumi elinesithoba, waveza ithiyori exhasa uhlalutyo lobugcisa. Zizakhiwo ezinxulumene nokusebenza kweemarike, kusetyenziswa amanqanaba okuvala eetshathi zemihla ngemihla.
Indawo ye Phantsi ithiyori Chaza ngokufutshane le miba ilandelayo. Izalathiso ziya kuyiphungula yonke into, oku kuthathela ingqalelo lonke ulwazi malunga neziganeko ezinokuthi zichaphazele iimarike.
Kuza kubakho iindlela ezintathu eziza kulandela iimarike. Inye (Ukunyuka - Ukuhla), kulandela iphethini yeencopho kunye neentlambo. Ezinye zeendlela eziphambili okanye zexesha elide, ukusuka kwiinyanga ezintandathu ukuya kunyaka, nangaphezulu.
Iindlela ezijongwa njengexesha eliphakathi, ukusukela kwiiveki ezintathu ukuya kwiinyanga ezintathu nakwimfundo ephakamileyo, ekwabizwa ngokuba lixesha elincinci okanye elifutshane (ngaphantsi kweeveki ezi-3).
Uhlobo lokuqala lweendlela baya kulandela izigaba ezithathu kwindaleko yayo. Enye yokuqokelela, okanye "ukuthengwa kweziko"; yokuthengwa luluntu ngokubanzi okanye isigaba esisisiseko kunye nenqanaba lokuhambisa, ekwabizwa ngokuba yintengiso yeziko okanye intelekelelo.
Iindices ezahlukeneyo zesitokhwe Kuya kufuneka baqinisekise bobabini ukuya phezulu nangaphantsi.
Umthamo uya kuqinisekisa imeko. Umthamo wezorhwebo kufuneka unyuke xa ixabiso lihamba kwicala lomkhwa kwaye kufuneka uwe xa uchasene nalo.
Umkhwa uya kuhlala ulawula okanye unyanzelekile de ubonakalise ngokucacileyo ukuba utshintshe indlela.
Uhlalutyo lwegraphical
Olu hlobo lohlalutyo luya kuthathela ingqalelo kwizifundo ezisetyenziswe kwigrafu yamaxabiso, ngaphandle kokusebenzisa uhlalutyo lobungakanani.
Sixoxa ngezantsi kwezixhobo ezisisiseko esinazo.
- Imikhwa: Iya kuba sisikhokelo seencopho kunye neentlambo apho ixabiso kunye nesenzo salo siyakubonisa ngokucacileyo. Kukho ukunyusa, ukubambelela kunye neendlela ezisecaleni. Ezinye zeendlela ziya kuvumela ukusetyenziswa kwezinye izixhobo ezinje: Imigca yokuhamba phezulu okanye esezantsi; Iitshaneli ezinokuthi zihlelwe njenge-bullish okanye i-bearish.
- Inkxaso kunye nokuxhathisa: Iya kuba kwinqanaba lamaxabiso asezantsi kuneli langoku. Ibango kuya kufuneka lidlule kunikezelo, kwaye ke ixabiso liya kunyuka kwakhona. Kwinqanaba legrafu, iya kumelwa ngumgca othe tye oya kuba ngaphantsi kwexabiso elilindelweyo ngoku eliqulathe nakuphi na ukunyuka okusezantsi, kwaye ke ixabiso liya kuphinda libuye. Ukuxhathisa kuya kuba kukuphikisana nenkxaso. Iya kuba kwinqanaba lexabiso eliphezulu kuneli langoku, apho unikezelo kufuneka lugqithe kwimfuno kwaye ixabiso liwe ngaloo ndlela. Kwinqanaba letshathi, iya kuba ngumgca othe tyaba oya kuba ngaphezulu kwexabiso esele likho ekufuneka linalo naluphi na umfutho wokuqhubela phambili.
- Ulwakhiwo lobugcisa, amanani okanye iipateni: Imizobo eza kwenziwa kwiitshathi zestokhwe. Ihlelwe kudidi olwahlukileyo okanye iiklasi, ziya kuba nexabiso lokuqikelela. Iimpawu ezijongwa njengezikhona zezi: i-bullish, i-bearish kunye necala.
- Iingxaki: Iya kuba ziintshukumo ezinamaxabiso ngokuchasene neyona nto iphambili kuyo. Kulindelwe ukuba ixabiso libuyele umva okanye lithathe indawo ebalulekileyo yentshukumo yoqobo, lifumane inkxaso okanye ukumelana namanye amanqanaba abonakalayo ngaphambi kokuqhubeka nokuhamba kwalo kwicala langaphambili.
Izixhobo zeMathematika
Kukho iimodeli zemathematics ezinokuthi zisebenze kwisenzo sexabiso, kunye nohlalutyo lobuchwephesha luyazisebenzisa. Oku kuyakuvumela ukuqikelela indlela yokuziphatha kweemarike kwixesha elizayo.
Ukuhambisa i-avareji: Ziziseko phantse zonke iinkqubo zokulandela iindlela. Izikhombisi zibandakanyiwe ziya kuba: IBollinger Bands, iiMilinganiselo eziQhelekileyo zokuHamba, iiMilinganiselo zokuHamba okunesisindo.
Ukuhambisa i-avareji ngokubanzi kuyakwenziwa njengemigca eqinileyo kwixabiso okanye kwitshathi yesilinganiso, kwaye iya kuhlala isetyenziswa ngokudibanisa ezimbini okanye nangaphezulu, namaxesha ahlukeneyo.
Ziya kuba luncedo kakhulu ukuba kukho ulwalathiso olucacileyo lwentengiso nokuba yeyokunyusa okanye yokuqina. Ukuba imeko ihambelana, kuya kuba kuhle ukufumana imiqondiso kwii-oscillators.
Ii-Oscillators: Iimodeli zemathematika ezisetyenziswa kwixabiso, ezisekwe kuqatshelo oluthile kwindlela yokuziphatha kwintengiso. Bavame ukuhlelwa ngaphantsi kwetshathi yesitokisi, njengemigca okanye i-histograms. Baza kulinganisa ukomelela kweendlela zentengo.
Ezinye zezona oscillators zibaluleke kakhulu kwaye zisetyenziswa kakhulu zezi:
- I-Stochastic (iStochastic Oscillator)
- I-MACD (Ukuhambisa umndilili wokuDibana / ukwahluka)
- Umzamo; I-RSI (Isalathiso Samandla Ahlobene)
Xa kukho imeko yecala kwimarike, ii-oscillators ziluncedo kakhulu, ngakumbi xa izifundo ezilandela umkhondo zinganiki mqondiso uqinisekileyo. Ii-Oscillators zinika umhlalutyi imiqondiso eya kwenza kube lula kubo ukuba baxhamle kumaxesha angenachaphaza elichaziweyo.
Kwimizuzu apho iikowuti zilandela i-bullish echanekileyo okanye ye-bearish, ii-oscillators ziya kubonelela ngolwazi olusisiseko njengoko amaxabiso esondela kwimimandla egqithileyo.
I-Oscillators iya kuba sisilumkiso ngokulinganayo malunga nobuthathaka bendlela enikiweyo xa iphambuka kwitshathi yesitokhwe okanye ezinye ii-oscillators.
Ukuqikelela
La Umthamo woqikelelo lohlalutyo lobugcisa ulinganiselwe. Kuqwalaselwa ukuba yi-3% kuphela yomahluko wemihla ngemihla onokuchazwa kuthathelwa ingqalelo amaxabiso angaphambili esabelo. Ngenxa yoku, ulwazi kwimbali yexabiso elidlulileyo lokhuseleko ekuthethwa ngalo alonelanga ukuqikelela ixabiso elizayo.
Iingcinga ezininzi zichaza ubunzima bohlalutyo lobuchwephesha kunye nezinye iintlobo zohlalutyo lwesitokhwe ezisetyenziselwa ukuqikelela amaxabiso exesha elizayo.
Enye yezi inxulumene Iimarike ezifanelekileyo, ethi lonke ulwazi olufumaneka esidlangalaleni luya kuchaphazela ngokukhawuleza ixabiso lokhuseleko. Ngokwenza oku, akunakwenzeka ukuba "ufike kwimarike" kuthathela ingqalelo ukuhla kwezinto ezidlulileyo okanye ukuxabisa okungaphezulu.
Obunye ubungqina obufunyenweyo bubonisa ukuba iimarike zinamaxesha okuhamba ngokungacwangciswanga, ekungayi kubakho nanye into egqibeleleyo eya kwenzeka, iphazanyiswe kukuphazamiseka okungxamisekileyo kunye nemincili.
Ngenxa yobume bovuyo obunqabileyo, kuthathelwa ingqalelo ukuba iindlela zangoku zokuqikelela azinakho ukuba luncedo kakhulu.