Wonke umntu uye wamangaliswa ziindaba malunga nezi zibini zibaluleke kakhulu eSaudi Arabia nokuba zezelinye lamaqela ezemali kwihlabathi liphela, njengoko kunjalo inkampani yeoyile yombuso iAramco. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku ngalo mzuzu oko kuthetha ukuncitshiswa malunga neepesenti ezingama-50 kwimveliso yegolide emnyama. Kwaye ngaphandle kwamathandabuzo kunokuzinzisa iimarike zezemali, zombini ngenxa yento ngokwayo kunye nokuziphindezela okunokuthathwa kwelinye ilizwe. Ubuncinci kwinto emele ixesha elifutshane.
Ngale ndlela, impendulo yamandla oqoqosho akhokelayo akakhange abe kudala eza, njengoko uninzi lwabahlalutyi belindele malunga nale asethi yemali efanelekileyo. Kungenxa yokuba, umongameli wase-USA, uDonald Trump, ithathe isigqibo sokugunyazisa ukukhutshwa koovimba bezinto zekrwada elizweni ukuze, ukuba kukho imfuneko, baqinisekise ukubonelelwa kwehlabathi, okuchaphazeleka kuhlaselo lwakutsha nje ngokuchasene nezicoci zaseSaudi. Into eya kuthi ngokungathandabuzekiyo ichaphazele iinkampani zeoyile ezidweliswe kwiimarike zezabelo.
Ngelixa kwelinye icala, inokuba nefuthe, ngakumbi okanye kancinci, kwii-indices zesitokhwe eziphambili kwihlabathi liphela. Ngenxa yale meko, siza kukunika ezinye zeendlela zotyalo-mali onokuthi uzenze khusela imali oyityalileyo ekuthengweni nasekuthengisweni kwezabelo kwimarike yemasheya kunye nezinye iimveliso zezezimali. Kuba, eneneni, kunomdla ukuqaphela ukuba olu hlobo lweendaba alwamkelwa kakuhle ziimarike zezabelo. Ukuba akunjalo, ngokuchaseneyo, bohlwaywa kuzo zonke iindawo zamazwe aphesheya njengoko kwenzekile nakwiziganeko zeempawu ezifanayo.
Uhlaselo luchaphazela ixabiso leoyile ekrwada
Ngokumalunga nalo mba, kufanele ukuba kuqatshelwe ukuba i-US ineengaphezulu kwezigidi ezingama-600 zemigqomo ezigcinelwe imeko ezingxamisekileyo, kwaye zinokusetyenziselwa le ngxakeko kwicandelo leoyile. Ngayiphi na imeko, inye into icace gca kwaye amaxabiso egolide emnyama ngoMvulo adubule ngaphezulu kwe-10% kwiimarike zezemali. Zombini ngenxa yokuhlasela kwabagrogrisi kwiindawo zokucoca izinto eSaudi Arabia nangenxa yokwanda koxinzelelo olwenzeka kuMbindi Mpuma ngenxa yesi siganeko singathandekiyo.
Kukho abahlalutyi bezemali abakholelwa ukuba ixabiso le-crude linokunyuka liye kumqobo we-100 yeedola umphanda. Ngelixa kwelinye, ezinye azinathemba kwaye zibonisa ukuba kuya kubakho ukonyuka okuncinci kunye nexesha elincinci kakhulu ngokubhekisele kwisithuba sexesha kwizicatshulwa zabo. Ngayiphi na imeko, kwaye ngokubhekisele kuqoqosho lwaseSpain, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso amdaka kungakhokelela ekwehleni kwesishumi sepesenti kwiMveliso ePheleleyo yaseKhaya (GDP). Ngexesha apho uhlaziyo olusezantsi lukhula rhoqo. Ngamanye amagama, ingalimaza imveliso yelizwe lethu.
Iingxowa ziyawa, kodwa ngaphandle kwengozi
Ukuphendula kweemarike zezabelo zamazwe ngamazwe akukhawulezi ukuza kwaye olu suku lokuqala lweveki iimarike zentengiso kwihlabathi liphela ziwile. Kodwa hayi ngamandla awayekulindelwe kwimpelaveki. Kubonakala ngathi yonke into iphantsi kolawulo kwaye nakweyiphi na imeko kuye kwakho abaphumeleleyo kunye nabaphulukene nohlaselo kwizicoci zase Saudi Arabia. Njengokuba ayinakuba ngaphantsi, iinkampani zeoyile ziye zahlaziya ixabiso labo ngokomyinge we-2,5%. E-Spain, le ntshukumo iye yalawulwa ngu Repsol eyinkampani yeIbex 35 evuke kakhulu. Okulandelayo, zonke ezo zinxulunyaniswe neoyile, ezinje ngeTénicnicas Reunidas, ababone ukuthenga uxinzelelo kubekwe ngokucacileyo kumthengisi.
Elinye lamacandelo emarike yemasheya eliye laqhuba ngcono kule meko intsha yamazwe aphesheya yile yeenkampani zombane. Ukuqaphela ukunyuka okuncinci kwinqanaba labo njengamaxabiso akhuselekileyo ngokutsala indawo elungileyo yokuhamba kwemali eyonakalisayo kwamanye amacandelo omvuzo oguqukayo. Ukuya kuthi ga kwinqanaba lokuba inokuba sisizathu esitsha sokuvula izikhundla kweli candelo, ubuncinci kude kube zizinzile kwindawo yoMbindi Mpuma. Akumangalisi ukuba sinokuthi kule mihla sikulungele ukuphulukana nemali ukuba ukubheja kwethu akuyiyo efanelekileyo.
Ibex 35 yehla nge-0,9%
Oku kube ziziphumo zesalathiso esikhethiweyo sama-equity kazwelonke ngalo Mvulo kwaye sihambelana nezinye iimarike zezemali kwindalo esingqongileyo. Apho amaxabiso anxulumene nothutho ibiyeyona ishiye elona xabiso kwixabiso lezabelo zazo. Ngokukodwa, IAG moya phantse i-3% yoqikelelo lwamaxabiso lushiye kwimarike yemasheya. Ngelixa kwelinye icala, amanye amaxhoba aphambili kule meko ikhethekileyo ibe ziinqobo ezinxulunyaniswe necandelo lezokhenketho eziphulukene nezikhundla. Njengeenkampani ezijikelezayo ezingakhange ziziphathe kakuhle ezi ndaba zingathandekiyo.
Ngoku okusalayo ukuze kuqinisekiswe kukuba ingaba le ntshukumo ithe ngqo okanye iza kuqhubeka kwiintsuku ezizayo kwaye kwimeko apho i-Ibex 35 inokuphinda iwele phantsi kwenqanaba lama-9.000. Ukucima umnyhadala wokunyuka okwenziwe kwiveki ephelileyo. Kuhleli kuphela ukubona ukuba uhlaselo lwezinto zokucoca izinto eSaudi Arabia luya kuchaphazela njani iimarike kwaye ziye kuthi ga phi. Okanye ukuba ngokuchaseneyo, ibikukuhamba kuphela kosuku olunye kunye nokusabela okuncinci. Ndiqinisekile ukuba ekupheleni kweveki bonke abatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi baya kuba namathandabuzo ukuze bakwazi ukwenza izicwangciso zabo zotyalo-mali ngesiqinisekiso esikhulu sempumelelo.
Yintoni enokwenziwa ngoku?
Njengenyathelo lokuthintela, abatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi bayacetyiswa ukuzola kwezi ntsuku. Kuzo zombini iimeko, kububulumko kakhulu ukunqanda izikhundla kukhuseleko lwe- icandelo lezokhenketho nezothutho kuba bona babhencwa kakhulu ukuba baphulukane nezikhundla ezininzi kwiintsuku ezizayo. Ewe kufanelekile ukuba ulinde iintsuku ezimbalwa ukuze wenze isigqibo, ngenye indlela okanye enye, kwaye yintoni ebaluleke ngakumbi ngaphandle kokwenza iimpazamo kwiindlela ezisetyenziswa ngabatyali mali. Singatsho ngokukhuselekileyo ukuba kule veki lixesha elifanelekileyo lokuphuma kwiimarike ze-equity kwaye kuya kubakho ixesha lokuphinda wenze imali.
Kwelinye icala, kubatyali mali abakhohlakeleyo banokuvula izikhundla kwiinkampani zeoyile ezidweliswe kwimarike yemasheya. Inokuvelisa imbuyekezo enkulu, kodwa ngomngcipheko onokusibamba kwisantya esitshintshileyo kwaye ekugqibeleni sizifumane siphulukene nengxelo yethu yengeniso. Ngokukodwa, ngokunyuka okuphezulu kakhulu abenako ngalo Mvulo kwaye ibe lelinye lamaxabiso abalulekileyo kwiimarike zezabelo. Naphi na apho isigqibo senziwe khona, akukho sicwangciso-mali sicacileyo sokusifezekisa ngelona xesha lifutshane.
Isivumelwano se-ETF kwioyile
Olunye ukhetho olunokuba luncedo ngakumbi ngalo mzuzu ungowokwenza imveliso ngokusemthethweni nezi mpawu. Akukho mngcipheko uthathiweyo kwaye ungathatha ithuba lokushukuma okuphezulu kwale nto ibalulekileyo eluhlaza. I-ETF okanye ingxowa-mali yokurhweba ngotshintsho ngumxube phakathi kweemali kunye kunye nokuthengwa kunye nokuthengiswa kwezabelo kwimarike yemasheya. Emva kokuba amaxabiso eoyile enyukile kwimisebenzi yokuqala ngoMvulo phakathi kwe-15% kunye ne-20%, emva kokonyuka koxinzelelo kuMbindi Mpuma. Kwaye nakweyiphi na imeko, enokuthi ivelise ukungazinzi okukhulu kuqwalaselo lwamaxabiso, ngomahluko omkhulu phakathi kwamaxabiso aphezulu kunye neyona isezantsi.
Ngelixa okokugqibela, singekhe silibale malunga nenyani yokuba kukho abanye abahlalutyi bezemali abacinga ukuba ixabiso le-crude linokunyuka liye kumqobo we-100 yeedola umphanda. Oko kukuthi, phantse i-30% ngaphezulu kwamanqanaba eveki ephelileyo. Kwaye enye inyani engamele ilibaleke kukuchaphazeleka kwamaxabiso eoyile anokukhokelela ekwehleni kweMveliso yeLizwe eQhelekileyo (i-GDP) yamazwe aphambili ehlabathini. Ngexesha apho ukudodobala kwezoqoqosho kusemilebeni yabo bonke abahlalutyi bezemali kunye nabatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi. Lo ngowona mngcipheko mkhulu onokuthi uveliswe kukunyuka kwegolide emnyama kwiintsuku ezizayo. Nangona ngokuchaseneyo, inokuba ekugqibeleni yonke into iyintshukumo yokudibana kwaye ngaphezulu kwayo yonke ilawulwa ziimarike zemali. Oko kukuthi, emva kwayo yonke loo nto, yintoni ebandakanyekayo kwezi meko zinzima zokusebenza kwiimarike ze-equity.