Kubonakala ngathi ayinakucingelwa kwiinyanga nje ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo kwaye ngakumbi esiphelweni se-2019. Kodwa inyani kukuba isalathiso esikhethiweyo sezabelo zaseSpain, i-Ibex 35, sele ikwindawo ezingama-9600. Ngendlela kubonakala ngathi igubungele iinjongo zayo ubuncinane kwixesha elifutshane. Kodwa inyani kukuba le meko ivelisa amathandabuzo amaninzi phakathi kwabatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi. Ingakumbi kuba abazi ukuba mabenze ntoni ukusukela ngoku. Ukuba uhlengahlengisa izikhundla zabo kwimarike yemasheya okanye ukuba ngokuchaseneyo kulungile ukuba ngaphakathi kweemarike.
Ngayiphi na imeko, kwaye ngokuhambelana ngokugqibeleleyo nolunye utshintshiselwano lwesitokhwe saseYurophu, iseshoni yokuthenga kwi-Ibex 35 ikhokelele ekubeni ibekwe kumanqanaba akhankanywe apha ngasentla. Ewe kunjalo, kuba imali ayiyeki, ngamehlo Intlanganiso yeFed kwaye kunokwenzeka ntoni ngeBrexit eyoyikekayo. Ngelixa kwelinye icala, ixabiso leoyile lizinzile emva kokunyuka kwayo kwakutshanje. I-cocktail yonke apho kuya kuba nzima kakhulu ukwenza isigqibo sokukhusela imali ekhoyo ngabathengisi bokuthengisa.
Apho inyani ebaluleke kakhulu kwiimarike zokulingana kwihlabathi liphela ayinakulityalwa. Lunjani uzinzo lwe- Ingxoxo yorhwebo phakathi kwe-US ne China iye yavelisa ukuhlanganiswa kweemarike zezemali. Ngaphaya kwezinye izinto zokuqwalaselwa kobuchwephesha bobugcisa ngabo. Ubukhulu becala, kwiveki ezayo iimarike ziya kusinika olunye udidi oluxabisekileyo kwindlela imarike yemasheya eza kuvela ngayo ukusuka ku-Epreli olandelayo. Ixesha eliqhele ukuba li-bearish kule minyaka idlulileyo.
Ibex 35: iinjongo ezigutyungelweyo?
Lo ngumbuzo onobubele obuzwe ngamawaka kunye namawaka wabatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi kwilizwe lethu. Ngendlela a Ukugula kwindawo ephezulu emva kokuhlaziywa kweemarike zezabelo kwikota yokuqala yonyaka. Apho kuye kwakho ukonyuka kufutshane ne-10%, into engakhange ibalwe nangabahlalutyi abanethemba lokugqibela ekuqaleni konyaka, emva kokuba isalathiso esikhethiweyo sezabelo zamashishini esizwe siye sehla saya kufikelela kwi-13% kunyaka ophelileyo. Kodwa yonke into ibonakala ibonisa ukuba iimarike zamasheya zamanye amazwe zisabele kakuhle kolu celomngeni.
Kwelinye icala, ukonyuka ukusukela ngoJanuwari bekuthe nkqo kwaye ngekhe kumangalise ukuba ezinye ulungiso olusempilweni kumaxabiso ezabelo ezikhuselweyo ezidwelisiweyo. Ukujongana nesemester yesibini enzima ngakumbi kwimidla yabatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi. Ngokukodwa, kuba inokuthi ihambisane nokuwohloka kwezoqoqosho kuqoqosho lwaseYurophu. Ngokukodwa, ngokubhekisele kwi-locomotive yoLuntu, eJamani, ethi kwiinyanga ezidlulileyo ibonakalise uphawu olungaphezulu kwesinye sobuthathaka kwezoqoqosho.
Ukuhamba kancinci ukuya phezulu
Ngayiphi na imeko, inye inkalo apho uninzi lwabahlalutyi bemarike yezabelo bavumelana khona. Kwaye inyani kukuba indlela ekunokukhethwa kuyo isalathiso sezinto zokulingana zaseSpain, i-Ibex 35, sele ilinganiselwe. Ikhutshiwe, okona kulungileyo, apha amanqanaba asondele kumanqaku ayi-10.000, apho ukubanakho ukuphinda kusebenze kungasayi kuba phezulu kakhulu kwizikhundla zangoku. Kuba ngokwenyani, ngesele "idlile" indawo elungileyo yolonyuso kwicandelo lokuqala lonyaka. Nangona icandelo lebhanki liye lasilela ngasemva kunamanye ukufezekisa ezona njongo zikhawulezileyo.
Ukusuka kule meko ngokubanzi, alithandabuzeki elokuba kusekho okuncinci kakhulu onokukufikelela ngeemarike zezemali. Apho kuwo onke amathuba kukho okungaphezulu kokulahlekileyo kunokuwina ngoku. Ngaphandle kokuba ivelise into ebalulekileyo ukulungiswa kwexabiso ekuvumela ukuba uthenge izabelo ngexabiso elinokukhuphisana ngakumbi kunangoku. Ngokukodwa ngaphambi kwepanorama esinayo ngaphambili kwaye ayisiyonto intle malunga nokuvela kweengxowa kwindawo yoluntu. Apho, i-Italiya ngokwayo ingene kwimeko yokudodobala kobugcisa.
Elona candelo lilungileyo lokungena
Ngayiphi na imeko, kukho inani lamacandelo esitokhwe anokwenza ngcono kunamanye avela kula maxesha achanekileyo. Phakathi kwezinye izizathu, kuba bohlwaywe ngakumbi kwiinyanga ezintathu zokuqala zalo nyaka. Ngokukodwa, enye yazo yibhanki ekuziphatheni kwayo ubuncinci kunenkqubela phambili. Ngokwehla okukhulu kwexabiso kumaxabiso kunye nomnye wemizekelo efanelekileyo ubonakalisiwe Banco Sabadell okwangoku kuthengiswa ngaphantsi kweyunithi enye ye-euro. Kwaye nangona kubonakala njengexabiso elifanelekileyo ukuvula izikhundla, zikwimeko ethe-ethe kakhulu.
Nangona kunjalo, akunakulindeleka ukuba amaxabiso ecandelo lebhanki aqhubeke nokuwa ngamandla okhethekileyo kuba oko kungadala ingxaki enkulu kwinkqubo. Ngale ndlela isenokuba ngummangaliso omkhulu kwikota elandelayo yonyaka, ngokufumana kancinci kwindima yayo kwiimarike zezabelo. Ngaphandle kokunye ukuthathelwa ingqalelo kobuchwephesha bendalo kwaye mhlawumbi nakwindawo yokujonga izinto ezisisiseko. Apho kuya kubakho imfuneko yokujonga kakhulu ukuvela kwayo kwiindawo zesizwe nezamazwe aphesheya.
Ngaba ingagqitha ngaphaya kwe-10.000?
Lo ngomnye wemibuzo abatyali-mali abaninzi abancinci nabaphakathi abazibuza yona, njengoko kunjalo kwimeko yakho. Inzima kakhulu ukuba ingafikelela kula manqanaba kwikoteyishini kwimeko yezoqoqosho njengale ikhoyo ngoku. Kodwa ngokuchaseneyo, yonke into iya kubonisa ukuba i-downtrend kufuneka ifakwe kwiimarike ze-equity. Ngokukodwa kwisalathiso esikhethiweyo sokulingana kweSpain, i-Ibex 35, ebonakala ngathi igubungele iinjongo zayo. Ngokhuseleko oluye lwahlaziywa ngaphezulu kwe-10% ukuza kuthi ga ngoku kulo nyaka.
Ngelixa kwelinye icala, ayinakugwetywa ngaphandle ukuba kwiinyanga ezizayo kunokubakho uxinzelelo olunamandla lokuthengisa olubekwe ngokucacileyo kumthelekisi. Ngokukodwa ukuba idatha yezoqoqosho iyaqhubeka ukuba mbi kwindawo ye-euro. Akunakuphikwa nokuba isalathiso esikhethiweyo sezabelo zaseSpain, i-Ibex 35, siza kuphinda siwele phantsi kwamanqaku angama-9.000. Kwimeko apho, kuya kubakho okubalulekileyo jika imeko yakho esezantsi inokuhamba isuka kwi-bullish iye kwi-bearish kwisithuba esifutshane kakhulu sexesha. Njengabahlalutyi beemarike abakhokelayo belumkisa ukusukela ekuqaleni konyaka.
Amaxabiso ombane kunyuka simahla
Asizukutshata ukukhumbula ukuba la maxabiso esitokhwe anyuke kakhulu kumaxabiso abo kwaye zezona zikwimeko ezintle xa bethengisa ngokunyuka simahla. Ngawona manani mancinci anokubakho kuba bengenachaso ngaphambili kwaye banokunyuka kwizikhundla eziphezulu ukusukela ngoku. Imeko echaphazela onke amaxabiso ayo kwaye ngaphandle kwako nakuphi na ukwahluka, njengoko iigrafu zisilumkisa ngoku. Kodwa kwelinye icala, abayi kuxolelwa kulungiso ukusukela ngoku ukuya nakumathandabuzo malunga nokuza kwenzeka ukusukela ngoku. Hayi ngelize, zizindululo kwimarike yemasheya eziye zaxatyiswa kwezinye iimeko ngaphezulu kwe-40% kwiinyanga ezimbalwa kakhulu.
Ngapha koko, ayinakulityalwa ukuba eli licandelo elisebenza njengendawo yokusabela xa kujongwa kwezona meko zingazinzanga kwiimarike zezabelo. Kodwa kuninzi okuye kwavuka kwiinyanga nje ezidlulileyo ukuba inyani iyothusa malunga nento enokwenzeka kwiiseshoni ezilandelayo zorhwebo. Nangona bane isivuno sesahlulo inomdla kakhulu, isondele kakhulu kwi-7% kwaye enye yezona ziphezulu kwizalathiso ezikhethiweyo ze-Spanish equities, i-Ibex 35. Ngokuhlawulwa okuqinisekileyo nokuqinisekisiweyo minyaka le, okuhanjiswa ngokubanzi kwisemester nganye.
Inzala yemithamo
Ngayiphi na imeko, akufuneki ilibale ukuba abatyali mali bajonge izigqibo abazenzayo kwasekuqaleni. KwiBhanki ePhambili yeYurophu (ECB) ukumisela umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali. Apho zonke izikhombisi zalatha ukuba kuyakuba kunyaka olandelayo apho ukunyuka kudala kulindelwe kwinqanaba lenzala kuyakwenzeka. Inokuba sisiqalo seemarike zezabelo ukuqalisa ukwehla kulungelelwaniso lwamaxabiso abo.
Le yinto eyoyikwa ngabo bonke abatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi. Apho isalathiso esikhethiweyo sezabelo zaseSpain inokuba sesona sixhoba siphambili sale meko sinqweneleka kakhulu kwiimarike zemali. Apho ukuthengisa bekuya kubuya khona kunye namandla angaqhelekanga kumgangatho. Njengabahlalutyi beemarike abakhokelayo belumkisa ukusukela ekuqaleni konyaka.