Ukuba ubuzibuza ukuba utyalo-mali lwesitokhwe lunokubuyela nini kowona mva nje uphezulu, singahlala phantsi silinde. URay Dalio kunye nentsapho yakhe iqela lophando Bacinga ukuba kusafuneka silinde ixesha elidana. Utyalo-mali kwii-stocks kufuneka luqhubeke ngakumbi, kwaye luya kwenza oko njengoko uqoqosho lwase-US lungena uqoqosho kwiminyaka eyi-1-2. Makhe sibone ukuba eli bali linokuvela njani...
Luthini uluvo lwakho ngoko?
Abaphandi baseRay Dalio's Bridgewater Associates, i-hedge fund enkulu yehlabathi, bathi izitokhwe zivame ukuwela kwizigaba ezibini xa inzala iphakama. Kwaye kunokwenzeka ukuba inqanaba lokuqala alikagqibi ukuphuhlisa…
Inqanaba loku-1: ukuxatyiswa kwesitokhwe kuyawa
Okukhona inzala inyuka, kokukhona imali enomtsalane isiya ithelekiswa notyalo-mali kwizitokhwe. Ngokungaqiniseki okungaka kwikamva lethu, siya kuhlala sityala imali kuphela kwi-stocks ukuba silindele ukuba isinike imbuyekezo engaphezulu kokunciphisa iingozi zayo eziphezulu kunye neendleko eziphezulu zokubamba imali. Oko kukuthi, sincoma ukubabamba ukuba bathengisa ngesaphulelo, oku kuthetha ukuba ixabiso labo liwela kwinqanaba elibenza bathandeke kwakhona.
Ukuthelekiswa kwenzuzo yezabelo kunye nezinga lenzala liyehla. Umthombo: Bridgewater.
Yiloo nto kanye eyenzekileyo, ngokuwa kwamaxabiso esitokhwe esinoxanduva lolungiso oluninzi ukuza kuthi ga ngoku. Kodwa nangona izitokhwe zingabizi kakhulu kunokuba bezinjalo kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo, azikho ndawo zikufutshane namanqanaba esaphulelo. Kwaye okukhona inzala inyuka, kokukhona uqingqo-maxabiso kuya kufuneka lwehle ukuze luhlale lukhuphisana ngemali ezinkozo. Njengoko i-Federal Reserve iqhubeka nokunyusa amaxabiso aphakamileyo, iNqanaba loku-1 linokuthi liqhubeke lidlala, kwaye ukuhla okuthe kratya kumaxabiso okulingana kuyingozi kakhulu.
Inqanaba lesi-2: iingeniso zenkampani ziba buthathaka
Ngelixa ii-dynamics zoqingqo-maxabiso esizichazileyo ngentla zibe ngoyena mqhubi wembuyekezo yotyalo-mali lwamva nje, kukho enye enokudlala indima enkulu ngakumbi kwixesha elizayo. Uphando lwe-Bridgewater lubonisa ukuba ukucotha ekukhuleni kwemivuzo kunokuba yinto ethatha isigqibo sokuba ngaba izitokhwe zifumana ukulungiswa okuncinci okanye okubi ngakumbi. Ukuba uqoqosho kunye neenzuzo ziyehla kancinci kwiinyanga ezizayo, utyalo-mali lwesitokhwe alusayi kuwela ngakumbi. Kodwa ukuba inzuzo ithatha ukubetha okukhulu, ukwehla okumangalisayo okufana nokwango-2008 kuba yinto ecacileyo enokwenzeka.
Into egqibayo kwikamva lokutyala imali kwi-stocks iya kuba yinzuzo. Umthombo: Bridgewater.
Ngeli xesha, abatyali-mali baqikelela ukwehla okuncinci kwimivuzo. Ukuthathela ingqalelo ukuba uqoqosho “luphantsi, kodwa alutshoni,” banethemba kwaye bakholelwa ukuba iinkampani ziya kukwazi ukugcina imida kunye nengeniso ephezulu. UBridgewater uyasilumkisa ukuba oku kusenokuba yimpazamo. Oku kungenxa yokuba iziphumo zokunyuka kwamaxabiso enzala zithatha ixesha ukusasazeka kuqoqosho kunye nefuthe kwinzuzo yenkampani. Oko kukuthi, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ngokuqhelekileyo kubetha inzuzo enzima, kodwa ayenzeki ngokukhawuleza.
Zingaphantsi kangakanani izitokhwe?
Ngokusekwe kwezi zigaba siwahlalutyileyo, amathuba esitokhwe ngoku axhomekeke kwizinto ezimbini: ingakanani inzala enyukayo kunye nendlela iingeniso zeenkampani ezihlangabezana ngayo noku kunyuka. Okwangoku, akukho nanye kwezi zinto ibonakala ilungile. Ngokunyuka kwamaxabiso kusephezulu, iFederal Reserve isandula ukuvuma ukunyuka kwenzala yayo okwesithathu ngokulandelelanayo isithi uninzi lusendleleni. Njengoko besesichazile ngaphambili, oku akulunganga kuqingqo-maxabiso lwesitokhwe. Iimpawu eziphambili zomsebenzi wezoqoqosho ziyaqhubeka nokubonisa iimpawu zobuthathaka, ezisixelela ukuba inzuzo yenkampani inokuba malunga nokuwa. Oko kuya kuba nzima kutyalo-mali kwizitokhwe, eziye zabona ngokwembali ilahleko yazo enkulu xa amaxabiso enyuka kunye nenzuzo yehla.
Izitokhwe zibone eyona lahleko inkulu xa amaxabiso enyuka kunye nenzuzo yehla. Umthombo: Bridgewater.
URay Dalio uqikelele ukuba inzala ebetha i-4,5% iya kukhokelela ekubeni amasheya awele enye i-30%. Ngokubona ithemba labatyali-zimali malunga nemivuzo yexesha elizayo, sicinga ukuba uDalio ulungile...
Ngoko silisebenzisa njani eli thuba?
Icala elihle lokunyuka kwamazinga enzala kukuba kuya kuba lula (kwaye kunenzuzo ngakumbi) kubatyali-mali ukuba bahlale ecaleni. Ngokugcina inxalenye efanelekileyo yepotfoliyo yethu kwimali yedola okanye iibhondi zexesha elifutshane, asigcini nje ukugcina imali yethu yemali kunye neemvakalelo, kodwa siphinde sihlawulwe (ukuya kwi-4,5%) ngokwenza njalo. Ukuba utyalo-mali lwesitokhwe luthatha ukwehla okukhulu, sinokuthatha ithuba lokungena kube kanye kwishumi leminyaka. Kwangaxeshanye, sinokucinga ngokwakha ngokuthe ngcembe ipotifoliyo yethu yotyalo-mali lwesitokhwe ngokwenza iavareji yezinto esizithengileyo ukuze sisebenzise amathuba avelayo. Ixesha lelona nqaku linzima kutyalo-mali, kwaye kukho ithuba elihle lokuba nomtyali-mali omkhulu onjengoDalio uya kuphazama...
Impembelelo kutyalo-mali kwizitokhwe ngexesha lokuncipha kweemarike. Umthombo: Bridgewater.