Ukunyuka okunokubakho kwiimarike zamasheya zamanye amazwe kuya kuba kufutshane kakhulu ne amanani amabini ukuba amanqanaba okukhula abonakalisiwe kwiingxelo ezisemthethweni ayahlonitshwa. Nangona apha enyakeni kuthotho lwezalathi ezakuvela eziya kuthi zibonelele ngaphezulu kwesinye ukuvula okanye ukulungisa izikhundla kwiimarike zemali. Ngayiphi na imeko, unyaka olandelayo unzima kakhulu kwimidla yabatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi abaya kuthi balungise kakuhle izindululo zesitokhwe ukwenza imisebenzi yakho ibe yinzuzo kwiimarike zezabelo.
Iimarike zamasheya zamanye amazwe ziqala kwelinye lawona manqanaba aphezulu kule minyaka mihlanu idlulileyo. Ngokuhlaziywa kwe-86%, i-32% kunye ne-22% kwi UDow Jones, i-Eurostoxx kunye ne-Ibex 35, ngokulandelelana. Ngoku umbuzo kukwazi ukuba ngaba le meko inokugcinwa ngexesha lomsebenzi okanye ukuba, ngokuchaseneyo, izilungiso ziya kufakwa kumgangatho weparque. Ngayiphi na imeko, kuya kubakho iiparameter ezinokuthenjwa eziya kuthi zimisele ukuvela kwazo kwezi nyanga zilishumi elinambini zizayo. Ngaba uyafuna ukwazi ukuba zeziphi ezibaluleke kakhulu?
Kuzo naziphi na iimeko, kuya kubaluleka kakhulu ukuba kulo nyaka mtsha bakunyanzelise njengeqhinga lokutyala imali ulondolozo lwenkunzi yakho Utyalomali ngaphezulu kwezinye izinto zobuchwephesha kwaye mhlawumbi isisiseko ngokunjalo. Kuya kufuneka uvule iiasethi ezintsha zemali ukuba awufuni ukushiyeka emva kwabanye abatyali mali. Ngenxa yokuba kukho ubomi ngaphaya kwemarike yemasheya kwaye kukho iimarike zesinyithi esixabisekileyo, izinto ezingasetyenziswanga okanye enye indlela yotyalo-mali ukubonisa le meko inokumiselwa kunyaka olandelayo oza kuqala.
Izitshixo: ukukhula koqoqosho lwehlabathi
Uqikelelo lwalo nyaka luya kuba yenye yeenjini ezikhuthaza okanye ezibuyisela umva kwintengiso yemasheya, kuxhomekeke kwizilungiso ezenziwe kwiinyanga ezizayo. Ngale ndlela, ingxelo yakutshanje ye Fund International Fund (IMF) inyuse ingqikelelo yayo yokukhula kwehlabathi ukuya kwi-3,7%. Ngelixa uvela kuMbutho weNtsebenziswano yezoQoqosho noPhuhliso ugcina umgca wokukhula ofanayo kuqoqosho lwamazwe aphesheya. Nangona esitsho ukuba ukubuyiswa komelele akunamandla ngokwaneleyo.
Kwelinye icala, isebe lohlalutyo Bankinter ilumkisa ukuba uqoqosho lutshone kwinqanaba lokukhula elinokuqhubeka. Bajongane nalo meko, bathanda ukulingana njengezona zixhobo zotyalo mali zinenzuzo. Ngokukodwa, baseta i-Ibex 35 ekujolise kuyo ngamanqaku ayi-11.000, 9% ngaphezulu kwenqanaba langoku. Nangona kunjalo kukho amathandabuzo amaninzi ekufuneka esuswe ukusukela ngoku. Ingakumbi ezo zimiselwe ilizwe le-euro. Ngayiphi na imeko, iya kuba yikhosi entsonkothileyo yentengiso yesitokhwe, ngakumbi kunakwiminyaka edlulileyo.
Ukulindela ishishini
Iziphumo ezivezwe ziinkampani ezidwelisiweyo kwikota nganye ziya kuba yiparameter ebaluleke kakhulu yokuvavanya ixabiso lezabelo. Ukungabikho kweziphumo zekota yesine, Inzuzo yenkampani kuluhlu lwe-Ibex 35 lukhule ngo-2018 nge-13%. Ngokuncipha xa kuthelekiswa nekota yokuqala apho imisebenzi yezoqoqosho inyuke yaya kwi-20%. Nangona kunjalo, enye yeenkxalabo zabatyalomali ilele kwindlela umphumo wengxaki yeCatalan eya kugqithiselwa ngayo kwiiakhawunti zeenkampani kwiinyanga ezizayo. Ukuya kwinqanaba lokuba iya kuba sesinye sezitshixo sokubeka umendo kwindlela eya kuthi isalathiso sikhethe.
Ngayiphi na imeko, imiqondiso yokuqala sele ibonakalisile malunga nokwehla okuthile kuqoqosho lwaseSpain nangokongezwa kwezamazwe aphesheya. Ukuya kwinqanaba lokuba inokuvelisa ukuba inzuzo yeenkampani ingaphantsi kule minyaka. Kwaye oku kungadluliselwa kwixabiso lezabelo ezilungisiweyo ukuya kwinqanaba elikhulu okanye elincinci. Into enokubangela ukuba iimarike zamasheya zamanye amazwe zehle kakhulu. Lo ngomnye wemingcipheko ozibeka kuwo ukuba uza kukhetha i-equities kwiinyanga ezizayo. Inokuba lixesha elifanelekileyo loku lungisa iphothifoliyo yakho. Zombini kwimarike yemasheya nakwezinye iimveliso zemali, ezinje ngemali yotyalo-mali.
Ukuncitshiswa kwesikhuthazo semali
Umgaqo wolawulo-mali kumacala omabini e-Atlantic sesinye sezitshixo sokuvela kwemarike yemasheya kwi-2019. Nangona kunjalo, zibonisa ukwahluka okuthile phakathi kwale mimandla mibini yezoqoqosho. Kwelinye icala, iUnited States Federal Reserve ithathe isigqibo sokuphelisa unyaka ngenqanaba lenzala elingaphezulu kwe-1%, emva kokuyinyusa ngekota yenqaku. Olu lonyuso lwesine kwixabiso lemali okoko watshintsha isicwangciso sakhe sezoqoqosho. Kulo nyaka mtsha, inkqubo ye Ukurhoxa kovuselelo, nangona iza kuthi chu njengoko iFed inyanzelisa. Esi sigqibo khange sibe sisizathu sokuba uDow Jones aphakame ama-25% kunyaka ophelileyo kwaye azinzile ngalo lonke ixesha.
Kwi-European Union, kwelinye icala, umfanekiso wahlukile kancinci njengoko siqhubeka kunye ixabiso lemali ubuncinci, kwi-0%. Ukuqala ngeyoMqungu, iBhanki eNkulu yaseYurophu iyakunciphisa ngesiqingatha ukuthengwa kwetyala likarhulumente nakwabucala elamiselwa ukuze kunyuswe imeko yezoqoqosho kwindawo ye-euro. Ngokubonelela ukuba iimarike zentengiso zaseYurophu zixabise phantse i-30% kule minyaka mihlanu idlulileyo. Nangona kunjalo, kwi-2019 kuyakubakho imeko entsha ngenxa yeenjongo zomzimba olawulayo waseYurophu wokuyeka ukukhuthaza iimarike zezemali. Iindaba ezingamkelwanga kakuhle ngabatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi.
Ixabiso leoyile lokuvela
Enye into ekugxilwe kuyo apho kufuneka kuhlawulwe khona amaxabiso e-oyile ekrwada. Nakuphi na ukuphakama okuphezulu okanye okuphantsi kuya kuvelisa utshintsho ngesiquphe kumaxabiso ee-stock indices. Kwimeko yokuqala kuba iya kudala uxinzelelo lwamaxabiso kuqoqosho oluphambili lwamanye amazwe. Ngelixa kuluhlu olungezantsi kwe- $ 40- njengoko kwenzekile kunyaka onesiqingatha eyadlulayo-ingadala ukuphazamiseka kumazwe asondele kakhulu kule asethi yemali. Ngayiphi na imeko, ixabiso eliphakathi lebharethi lijikeleze iidola ezingama-65, ngokunyuka kwama-24% ngonyaka. Uqikelelo lubonisa ioyile ekrwada inyuka malunga ne-10% kulo nyaka, ngokwengxelo yakutshanje yeGoldman Sachs.
Umbono walo nyaka mtsha kukuba imeko egolide emnyama iphinda iphinde iphinde iphinde iphinde ibekho. Le yinto enokohlwaya inxenye elungileyo yeemarike zezemali. Nangona ngokuchaseneyo, kunokuba lixesha elifanelekileyo lokuthatha isikhundla kwiinkampani ezidwelisiweyo ezinxulunyaniswe nale asethi ibalulekileyo yezemali. Kwelinye icala, kuyinyani ukuba unokumenzakalisa uqoqosho ehlabathini luyakhula ngendlela efanayo kude kube ngoku. Lo ngomnye umngcipheko onxulumene nokungena konyaka omtsha, njengoko inani elikhulu labahlalutyi bezemali livuma.
Unyulo e-Itali naseJamani?
Inqaku lezopolitiko liyakuthatha isigqibo sokuba ii-equity zithathe enye indlela okanye enye kwiinyanga ezizayo. Ngale ndlela, unyulo olunokwenzeka e-Itali kwiinyanga ezilishumi elinambini ezizayo luya kubaluleka kakhulu. Akunakulityalwa ukuba ilizwe elinqamlezayo liqoqosho lwesithathu ngobukhulu kwi-European Union, kuphela ngasemva EJamani naseFransi. Kwaye yesibhozo emhlabeni ngeMveliso yaseKhaya yaManzi iyi-1.850.735 yeedola. Nasiphi na isiphumo esidala ukungazinzi ngakumbi ukwenza urhulumente kuya kuba neziphumo kwiimarike zezemali, ngakumbi kwimarike yemasheya.
Kwelinye icala, imarike yemasheya iyakube ilinde uthethathethwano phakathi kwamaqela amaninzi (i-CDU kunye ne-SPD) ukuze ihlale kurhulumente eJamani. Kungenxa yokuba kungenjalo kuya kugwetywa kunyulo olutsha entwasahlobo. Ngophawu lokungazinzi kwiimarike zezemali kuba eyona micimbi ingxamisekileyo kwi-EU inokukhubazeka. Olu luvo luneentloni oluthathwe yi I-DAX yaseJamani eshiye phantse i-1% ngexabiso layo kwinyanga ephelileyo. Kuwo kufuneka kongezwe amandla amaqela aziwa njengabantu abadumileyo.
Ukurhoxiswa koncedo kwi-EU
Enye into ebalulekileyo ngokukodwa yile ibhekisa kurhoxiso lwenkuthazo kwi-European Union kwaye izakwenzeka kulo nyaka. Le nyani inokuba ngu ukubetha kancinci ebhegini okoko izikhundla ezimfutshane zinokubekwa ngokucacileyo kubathengi. Ngayiphi na imeko, iya kuba yenye into eya kuthi ibalwe kunyaka ozayo kwaye ingabi phantsi kobuncinane ngokubhekisele kumaxabiso kwixabiso lezabelo.
Akumangalisi ukuba iyakuba yimali eninzi eshenxa kwiimarike zesitokhwe ukuya kufuna amanye amathuba eshishini. Zombini kumvuzo osisigxina kwaye kuthathelwa ingqalelo njengolunye utyalo-mali. Ukuya kwinqanaba lokuba inokuphawula ukuvela kwemarike yemasheya kwi2019. Iindaba ezingamkelwanga kakuhle ngabatyali zimali abancinci nabaphakathi.