Tabbas, ɗayan labaran da suka fi dacewa a wannan shekara shine aikin ƙirar ƙididdigar hannun jari na Amurka, Dow Jones. Har zuwa ma'anar cewa ya hau kan kowane lokaci-lokaci bayan dizzying bijimin gudu da kake fuskanta na fewan shekarun da suka gabata. Ba abin mamaki bane, shine mafi girman jerin ƙasashen duniya gaba ɗaya, kuma, tabbas, sama da na Turai. Babban shakku ga masu saka jari ya fito ne daga gaskiyar cewa yana iya kasancewa ɗan jinkiri don buɗe matsayi a cikin wannan muhimmiyar kasuwar kuɗin. Ko watakila ba?
Duk abin alama yana nuna cewa Dow Jones bashi da iyaka a gaba kuma babu matakan da zasu iya tsayayya da shi. Kodayake tabbas tabbas akwai lokacin da za a dakatar da wannan tseren tsere mai ƙarfi kuma a cikin wannan ma'anar babu wasu ƙwararrun manazarta waɗanda suka yi imanin cewa wannan lokacin ya kusan zama kayan jiki. Wataƙila saboda sakamakon matakan kariya Shugaban Amurka, Donald Trump ya nema. A kowane hali, wannan lokacin har yanzu bai iso ba kuma masu saka hannun jari suna fuskantar zamanin zinariya a kasuwar musayar hannayen jari mafi girma a duniya.
Ya kamata a tuna cewa Dow Jones yana ta tashi tsaye daga lokacin da aka sami mai tsanani. rikicin tattalin arziki baya a cikin shekarun 2017 da 2008. Tare da kusan babu yankewa kuma kawai tare da takamaiman gyare-gyare, kamar waɗanda aka samar a wannan shekara ta yanzu. Amma bayan sessionsan zaman zaman ciniki, hannun jarin sa ya sake tashi kuma idan zai yiwu tare da ƙarfi da ƙarfi kusan shekaru tara kenan wanda sake sake lissafin ya kasance ɗayan fitattun abubuwan daidaito a cikin 'yan shekarun nan. Ya bambanta da kasuwar hannun jari ta Turai wanda ya kasance mai jinkiri sosai a wannan lokacin.
Dow Jones: a maki 26.000
Babu wani abu ƙasa da shi wanda ya kai matakin maki 26.000, har ma ya wuce su a cikin awanni na ƙarshe. Inda Umarni masu siye ana tilasta su ne tare da bayyananniyar fahimta game da matan tallace-tallace. Kowa yana son siyan hannun jari a Dow Jones kuma wannan yana da wahalar sauka. Arfinta ya wuce tambaya, aƙalla na ɗan lokaci haka kuma na shekaru masu yawa. Yankewar na amfani da masu saka hannun jari don siyan hannun jari a farashin mafi tsada. Inda babu rashin samun shigar jari daga dukkan yankuna, ba Arewacin Amurka ba kawai.
Bayan waɗannan ƙididdigar, yana da mahimmanci a bincika ko lokaci ne mai kyau don buɗe matsayi a cikin wannan kasuwar kasuwar da ta dace. Da kyau, ba shine mafi kyawun lokacin shiga ba saboda alamun farko na gajiya na iya faruwa kuma wannan al'ada ne kuma gama gari ne a kasuwannin daidaito. Kamar yadda masanan harkokin kuɗi ke faɗi sosai, babu abin da ya tafi har abada kuma ƙasa da kasuwar hannun jari. Kodayake kusan shekaru goma ke cikin yanki mai fa'ida kuma yana ɗayan mafi kyawun lokuta a cikin kasuwar kasuwancin Amurka. Masu saka jari sun iya sa ajiyar ku ta zama mai riba da kusan 90%. Wato, tare da samun babban jari na miliyon a mafi yawan shari'o'in.
Me zai iya dakatar da wannan tashin?
Akwai dalilai da yawa da zasu iya dakatar da waɗannan hawan ban mamaki a cikin asusun Amurka. Tabbas, ɗayansu ya fito ne daga matakan kariya da aka karɓa da kuma cewa shine babban maƙiyinta, a matsayin rahoto daga Asusun Kuɗi na Duniya (IMF). A wannan ma'anar, tsammanin su na gaba ba su da kyau kamar yadda suke a yanzu. Kodayake gyaran, in ji masu nazarin harkokin kuɗi, ba zai zama rikici kamar na lokutan da suka gabata a farashin ba. Kodayake hasashen ya kasance daya daga cikin abubuwan da ke tattare da ayyukanku.
A wannan ma'anar, imanin kasuwannin kuɗi shi ne cewa kasuwar hannun jari ta Amurka na iya samun tafiya mafi girma fiye da na Bature. Ba abin mamaki bane, wannan bai haifar da irin wannan mahimmancin tashin farashin hannayen jarinsa ba. Sabili da haka, akwai babban rikici domin farashin zai iya faɗuwa daga yanzu. A zahiri, ɗayan manyan muhawara tsakanin masu saka hannun jari shine ko zai iya zama mai riba yanzu shiga kasuwannin hannayen jari na tsohuwar nahiyar fiye da ta Atlantic.
Haɗarin haɗarin juyawa
Wani yanayin da dole ne a yi la'akari da shi daga yanzu shine haɗarin da ke iya faruwa game da canjin yanayin a kasuwar hannun jari ta Amurka kuma, musamman ma, a Dow Jones. Sun bambanta kuma suna da wata dabi'a ta daban, kodayake ya kamata a lura cewa ba lallai ne a bi su ba. In bahaka ba, to kawai suna fuskantar babbar barazana ga ci gaban kasuwancin Amurka don ƙarshe su daina. Kuma daga cikin waɗanda waɗanda muke bayyanawa a ƙasa suka yi fice.
- El kariya mai yawa cewa shugabansu ya ba tattalin arzikin Amurka kuma sun saka shi cikin mawuyacin hali. Kodayake watakila ba za a iya ganin tasirinsa ba a mafi kankantar lokaci kuma ba ma a tsakiya ba. Amma haɗari ne wanda yake ɓoye kuma yana nan don baƙin cikin yawancin ƙanana da matsakaitan masu saka jari.
- La raguwar tattalin arziki duniya kuma hakan a ƙarshe zai shafi Amurka kanta kuma duk da irin farin cikin da ta kasance a cikin 'yan watannin nan. Tare da yawan rashin aikin yi wanda ya ragu zuwa raunin tarihi, da haɓaka tattalin arzikinta.
- Yanayin da kasashe masu tasowa Wata alama ce da ke iya haifar da wani rauni a cikin tattalin arzikinta. Musamman game da hannayen jarin da yake riƙe da kyakkyawar alaƙar kasuwanci kuma wanda yana iya zama sanadin haifar da sabon rikicin duniya.
- Tsoron rashin lafiya mai tsayi a halin yanzu hannun jarin Amurka. Ba za a iya mantawa cewa akwai shekaru da yawa tare da wannan ci gaba ba kuma a wani lokaci dole ne ya tsaya. Ba abin mamaki bane, shine mafi girman lokacin a kasuwar hannayen jari ta wannan ƙasa mai girma kuma tare da ƙarancin sanannun sanannun shekarun nan.
Tashin hankali tare da China
A yayin zaman kasuwancin da ya gabata, Dow Jones yana samun ci gaba na rashin kunya wanda ya haifar da rikicin kasuwanci tsakanin Amurka da China. Dangane da fannoni mafi fa'ida, ya kamata a lura cewa mafi yawan riba sun kasance ga kayan asali, gaba da kuɗi da kuzari (0,38). A kowane hali, daga cikin taken 30 da aka lissafa a Dow Jones, haɓakar kamfanoni kamar Carterpillar, Boeing da Goldman Sachs (1,31%) sun yi fice. Tare da matsin siyarwa wanda yake da matukar dacewa a cikin recentan kwanakin nan kuma hakan na iya zama zaɓin siye don watanni masu zuwa.
A gefe guda, kuma abin lura ne cewa yanayin wannan kasuwar kasuwancin da ta dace ya fi kariya fiye da 'yan shekarun da suka gabata kuma bangaren fasaha ita ce wacce ta fi tasiri a cikin tsammanin ci gabanta. Inda tashin farashin mai ba ya shafar farashinsu fiye da kima. A kowane hali, fifita tsammanin kamfanonin mai waɗanda ke da takamammen nauyi a cikin Dow Jones. Ya fi girma a cikin kasuwannin hannayen jari na tsohuwar nahiyar waɗanda ke da ƙarancin shawarwari don zaɓar wannan madadin na saka hannun jari.
Jin yarda
A kowane hali, masu saka jari suna ci gaba da yin imani da damar wannan kasuwar kuɗi kuma duk da tsada a cikin hannayen jarin kamfanonin da aka lissafa. Dangane da wannan, ya kamata a lura cewa bisa ga binciken da aka saba yi kowane wata na manajan asusu daga Bankin Amurka Merrill Lynch, kashi 69% na wadanda aka bincika sun ce Amurka ce yankin da ya fi dacewa idan aka zo tsammanin tsammanin samun kuɗi, matakin rikodin a cikin tarihin shekaru 17 na binciken. Babban kwarin gwiwa ne a bangaren wani bangare mai kyau na masu saka jari kuma suna taimakawa ci gaba da karuwar su.
Game da fasaha index par kyau, da Nasdaq, kodayake juyin halitta tabbatacce ne a cikin 'yan makonnin nan, ba irin ƙarfinsa kamar na Dow Jones ba. Saboda rashin ƙarfin da sashen fasaha ke wakilta. Tare da faduwa lokaci-lokaci da ke jan hankali, kamar yadda yake a takamaiman lamarin Apple ko Microsoft. Kodayake dole ne a yi la'akari da cewa sun sami riba mai yawa a cikin shekaru takwas da suka gabata, kuma a wasu lokuta suna wakiltar ci gaban da ke kusa da 80%. Percentageimar da a ƙa'ida ke da wahalar samu a kasuwannin daidaito.
Koyaya, babbar matsalar da saka hannun jari a cikin kasuwar hannayen jari ta Amurka ita ce cewa ayyukanta suna da kwamitocin faɗaɗawa idan aka kwatanta da na ƙasa. Wani abu da yake sake jan hankalin masu saka jari don gudanar da ayyuka a cikin wannan kasuwar kasuwancin. Baya ga samun kamfanonin da ba a san su da masu amfani ba kuma waɗanda suka fi son ƙimar gida.