Black swans are those unpredictable events that can have an impact on a global scale. Historically, this figure has represented events as important as the attacks of September 2001 in the Twin Towers or the fall of the New York Stock Exchange on Black Monday in 1987. Although it can affect all the orders of society, it has one of its benchmarks par excellence in the world of investment.
Because in effect, they are the facts that are not yet in are in the minds of investors and can decide the future of the stock markets. To the extent that your positions with respect to financial markets. With a forcefulness above the normal thing. Not surprisingly, we are talking about facts that you do not have from the beginning. But that can appear at any time and situation.
Next year in progress, of course you will have your black swans. Certainly and more than one. How the exercise that is ending has developed them. But without you knowing what it will be. That is why they are called black swans. Only the passing of days, weeks and months will reveal your identity. But anyway, you can foresee some of the events that can be glimpsed for the next dates. It will be a way for you to have more parameters so that you can build your investment portfolio from now on. Do you want to know what some of these black swans may be? Well, pay a little attention from now on.
Black swans: uncertainties
Undoubtedly, there are many events that can play this role during 2017. It is a very prone period to develop. From the economic point of view, but also political, social and even military. You must be very attentive to these movements. For a very compelling reason. It is none other than the great pressure it will put on the evolution of all equity markets. You will be seriously affected by all these movements. Influencing your money.
Some of them may be easily recognizable, but others will surprise you from the start. Perhaps because you do not count on them as factors to influence the financial markets with such decisiveness. And that every year, this operation is always repeated on those who may be the ones who play this special role, and at the same time important, of black swans. You may have more than one already planned after seeing how this year that is about to end has developed.
These black swans could completely turn the world of investing upside down. And as a consequence of this, that you can modify your investments during the next twelve months. In some cases in a totally radical way to how you have been developing them until then. Not surprisingly, at any moment the surprise can jump. When you least expect them. This is the main characteristics of this very peculiar figure in the equity markets.
Rupture of the European Union
Without playing predictions, there are some situations that can be predicted with some sense. Or at least whose cabal is not excessively far-fetched. One of them goes through the dismemberment of the European Union. Today is not a utopia, as some might consider. But a reality that can be endorsed by the elections and referendum that will take place on the European continent during the next year. To the point that there are many analyzes that are appearing in the most prestigious media on this important aspect.
If this news of great magnitude occurs, of course it will affect the financial markets, and also you as a small investor that you are. From many points of view. One of them will be the stock market. With a foreseeable cataclysm of them. Across all sectors and equities. But infecting practically all markets: currencies, fixed income, bonds, etc. You can lose a lot of money if this scenario is true, but it will also present excellent business opportunities. You will have no choice but to be prepared for the black swan that can flutter in 2017.
In any case, it is something that will be present from now on in the prices of the main European stock indices. You will have to start living with that variable in equities. What can lead to a extreme volatility, and not known during the past exercises. In this sense, if you opt for investment funds based on volatility, you will make the savings more efficient. Moving immediately to your pocket.
The price of oil at $ 100
Another especially relevant scenario for that black swan that always appears is oil. It could not be less after the last courses for what this financial asset is going through. It cannot be ruled out that black gold may return, even momentarily, to the barrier of $ 100 per barrel. Especially with the latest Agreements produced in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). That have boosted its listing in the markets where this financial asset is traded.
Price begins a rapid recovery as investors crowd to re-enter the market opening long. With the main oil companies leading the rises in all the world's stock markets. From this perspective, you have a very simple strategy to formalize and open positions in some of these companies. Offers will not be missing, especially outside our borders.
Ruble appreciation
One of the big surprises for this new season in equities is that it can come from the currency market. And very specifically of the Russian currency, the ruble. Because in effect, a strong appreciation against other currencies is possible. That can even get close to yields close to 30%. Being one of the most aggressive bets for which you can opt from now on if you expect very powerful returns. But not without great risks.
In any case, it will be an alternative that needs a greater degree of learning on your part. If not, you'd better go to other proposals that the financial markets have prepared for you. Even the role of black swans as one of the surprises that you will have your positions to make your savings profitable. In addition, the forex market will will require greater speed in the markets due to its volatility in the changes of the main currencies of the world.
Corporate bond sinking
Another of the scenarios that may arise, in this case for bad for your interests, is the fall in the profitability of corporate bonds. The reason that can trigger this situation in fixed income is an action by the Federal Reserve of the United States (FED) much more aggressive when it comes to interest rates. One of its main consequences would be derived from a strong sell-off in the main bond markets when yields begin to rise.
To avoid these situations that are so complicated for your interests as a retail investor, you would have no choice but to undo all the positions you have in investment funds of these characteristics. It is precisely where these financial products are contracted and through different formats, which can even be combined with other variable income financial assets. With a return on savings very favorable so far.
Good year for emerging
One of the great novelties that could come from 2017 is the relaunch of emerging markets. Especially the Brazilian that it can refloat its price once doubts about the composition of its government have been cleared up. One of the scenarios that can be generated is that emerging exports may be favored by cheaper local currencies. The consequences of this commercial strategy would certainly encourage emerging markets to have a great year, outperforming bonds and other exchanges.
This black swan of the economy would give you many and varied opportunities to invest your money. Through various financial assets and also markets. Where the Brazilian stock market would become one of the most attractive to operate since January. Not surprisingly, it presents a strong discount as a result of the bad year it has gone through. Both with regard to equities and fixed income.
Silver beats gold in interest
This precious metal can also be one of the surprises for the next financial year. Outperforming the yellow metal. With a return that will not be surprising that it was one of the most interesting in the financial markets. The political push to reduce carbon emissions by supporting the renewable energy will contribute to increased industrial demand for the metal. With which it will leave behind other refuge values of similar characteristics.
In fact, in recent months silver has developed an upward trend of undoubted interest for small and medium investors. Where a good part of the savers have shown their interest again. With the convenient, on the contrary, that it is more difficult to take positions since it contemplates less products for investment. It is investment funds that mainly pick up this trend. Another alternative is channeled through the physical purchase of this metal. And in any case, with little specific weight in the bag.