Are the stock markets discounting the economic recession?

This is one of the most relevant questions that small and medium investors are asking themselves at the moment. Because they are surprised that there has not been any particularly significant bearish pull so far. The selective index of national equities, the Ibex 35, has been moving for several months between levels of 9.000 and 9.500 points. With hardly any significant deviations on these margins in the price and that in a certain way is causing despair to a good part of the retail investors.

From this scenario, it is very complex to carry out operations with certain guarantees of success since they do not even know if the incipient economic recession that has come to stay, at least for a few months, is discounted. In this difficult scenario, it is normal that the occasional investor is not very clear about what to do, or what investment strategies to use these days. With an indecision that has not been seen for some years.

While on the other hand, it is also very important that a choice is made in the financial assets that will be part of our next investment portfolio. With the eternal dilemma of whether to choose the more aggressive values or if, on the contrary, the best decision is represented by the most defensive or conservative proposals. In part, due to the effects that the economic recession can produce in the equity markets. Where any mistake on your part can cost your personal interests dearly.

Effects of the recession on stock markets

There is a very clear fact and that is that the Spanish stock market is trading at the same levels as five years ago. That is, without advances, but not losing positions in their movements in the stock market. Where it is true that for a few months the equity markets have discounted the arrival of a new economic recession. But with the difference that there is a lot more liquidity than in other scenarios with these same characteristics. Due to the impulses that have come from the community bodies and that have had very positive effects on the equity markets.

From this scenario, it is not very likely that the declines in the stock market will go very low compared to current levels. To the point that positions can be taken for the medium and long term. With some opportunities in the business that can be very interesting from now on. Sometimes with prices that are very tight in some of the Ibex 35 values ​​and that invite to take positions by small and medium investors. As recommended by some of the most important market analysts.

There is talk of a way out of the recession

In any case, there are already some economic reports that speak of an expiration date for the economic recession and this is in 2021. And from this point of view, the stock markets anticipate economic scenarios. In theory, as it is a low intensity recession, it would not be surprising if next year there would be an upward pull of some intensity. It would therefore be an opportunity for investors with a more aggressive profile. In particular, with operations on the securities of the Spanish stock market that present a higher level of oversold.

On the other hand, it cannot be forgotten that one of the keys to avoid falling into a downward trend by Spanish equities is that the 8.500 point level. As long as it is above some margins we can be more or less calm from any point of view. Except for operations carried out in the shortest term. In any case, it is possible to open positions in the stock market from more moderate strategies than before. So that in this way, the level of benefits can be raised from now on.

Diversify various financial assets

On the other hand, there is always the resource of combining several financial assets as a formula to preserve capital over other more technical considerations. In this sense, one of the proposals in the innovative investment it is based on choosing other products that complement the main investment in equities. And from where you can carry out any strategy to make profitable the savings of the operations in the stock market.

Investments can be expanded with investment funds, fixed-term bank deposits. In order that you do not have all your savings in the same basket and in this way you can lose a very important part of your invested capital. Not in vain, it is a practice that investors who have more experience in this kind of operations do very frequently.

Values ​​that can bring joy

One of the values ​​of the Spanish stock market that can be very profitable in this period is Mapfre that he is waiting for 3 euros and that sooner or later he will get it. Beyond the fact that some cuts may occur in some periods of the year due to volatility in the equity markets. With the added value that it provides a dividend yield that is one of the most attractive at the moment. With an average annual interest of just over 6%, one of the highest in the selective index of Spanish equities, the Ibex 35.

While the investment strategies are based on what may happen from now on with Solariums. In this case, because it provides a potential for revaluation that is very suggestive to take positions in this position, which on the other hand has more risks in operations. But despite this, it seems that it can give more than one satisfaction to investors in the short and medium term. Although it is intended for monetary contributions much more modest than the rest because its risks are a little higher, so that in this way, the level of benefits can be raised from now on.

If government formation is listed

On the contrary, if the formation of the possible government that is going to be formed in our country is contributing. To the point that this week the Ibex 35 has fallen from 9400 points to 9000 points at which it closed this Friday. Where the most affected has been the banking sector that has led the losses in the national equity market. With daily decreases above 2% in some cases such as Bankia approaching 5%. In a very dangerous move for the interests of small and medium investors. Not surprisingly, many supports have been broken that were of special relevance to maintain the upward trend in which they were immersed in recent months.

This is news that has not been very well picked up by the different agents in the financial markets. That in most cases they have opted to undo their positions to return to liquidity in their savings account before what may happen from now on. Where the forecasts are not very positive to enter the equity markets, as has been seen in these days so bearish for the stock market in our country. That is, things do not look very good so that in the coming days you can make your positions profitable from these investment strategies. If not the opposite, it will depend in excess of how the responses will continue to be in the national squares. Although everything seems to indicate that the trend may be the same as this week that we have left.

Most defensive sectors on the stock market

In any case, it should be noted that the global scenario continues to be very positive for investors. To the point that US equities have once again managed to break other all-time highs. Although all small and medium investors are aware of the moment in which the corrections occur because it cannot be forgotten that they can be very violent precisely because of the verticality of the previous increases. Where precaution should be the main weapon used by stock users. Above much more aggressive investment strategies, but which are closely linked to higher risk operations than up to now.

Some of these sectors, to the surprise of many of the users, are defensive but that after all they have shown a relapse in recent weeks. As important as to assess the exit from the equity markets. Because they can complicate your situation a lot in the coming days and therefore your presence is not convenient. Not in vain, we must think that there is more that we can lose than win. That is, not beneficial proposals from the point of view of profitability. If not, on the contrary, they can point out certain dangers to avoid.


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