With the arrival of the new year, expectations are renewed so that the new year will be more fruitful in terms of the performance of your savings. Surely you want to improve the margins of previous years, even obtaining an additional income through the stock market that complements your income. It will be a more difficult task to accomplish as the equity markets they show a depletion in their quotation levels, which a good part of financial analysts warn of. During the past year, the Ibex 35 has already disappointed many savers, by not exceeding the 10.000 point barrier, accounting for a slight decline in this period.
The prospects for achieving your objectives in the equity markets necessarily go through a moderately satisfactory evolution of their main indices. In this sense, the experts' forecasts give an average revaluation level of around 5% or 10% for the European stock markets. Nor do you have to pay much attention to these predictions, which in the end almost never adjust to reality, which is what the markets mark. Of course, any adversity can knock down your hopes for this year.
However, there is one thing that is clear if you want to optimize your savings for this new stock market course, and that if you want to get a better return, you should risk more in your operations. And there is no other alternative for your wishes to be fulfilled than to go to equities. Although it will surely require greater efforts than in previous years. And always under the recommendation of making purchases with sufficient protection mechanisms to engage in unwanted situations in the financial markets.
Surely, you will face the new year with renewed illusions, no doubt, Any incident may derail your expectations to revalue your assets for another year. Not surprisingly, recent years have been highly positive for this kind of investment, with significant appreciations in the prices of the main securities that are present in the stock markets. In most cases with two digits. And above what fixed income banking products offer you, which rarely exceed 2%.
How will this year be for your investment?
It may not develop as you expected, and any incident may derail the forecasts you have planned. From the appearance of a new (or latent) military conflict, to the possibility that the main economies of the world once again enter a period of recession. Economic events are very difficult to foresee, and any variation in them can play a trick on you in 2016. It is convenient that you assume them so as not to be greatly disappointed.
So that you have more clearly that it can hurt you more in your investments, there are a series of scenarios, not only economic, but also social and even political that can hurt you in the coming months. Many will be very difficult to fulfill, but others may appear at any time, precisely when you least expect it.. This is the bag. And it is preferable that you take them into account to plan your investments in this period, before they are presented from now on. There are many euros that are at stake.
First incidence: the Chinese crisis may take its toll
There was already a strong warning last summer that the slowdown in the Chinese economy may affect European countries, and also the United States. Not in vain, its exports and imports depend on the evolution of the Asian giant. And all the macroeconomic data that are known so far affect, in that in Rather than a soft landing, what is unfolding is a full-scale crisis, which will first affect emerging markets.
If these expectations are confirmed, it is most likely that the stock markets will pick it up and experience strong depreciations in their prices. And that could be of great magnitude depending on the results of the main economic data on their national accounts. It will be an unfavorable scenario for your interests, which you must take into account when planning your investments. It will surely lead to losses to the main financial centers around the world in the coming months, even with an undetected virulence in recent years.
Second incidence: recovery of new world crises
If something can negatively influence the stock markets in the coming months, it cannot come from anything other than the economic downturn of the main engines of world growth. There are already symptoms that this scenario may appear again, and even some famous analysts predict that the latest cuts in stock markets is a consequence of this situation. Confirming that classic axiom that determines that markets anticipate economic scenarios.
Transplanted this hypothetical scenario to equities, it would mean that its most representative indices would correct their quotation levels, even taking them to levels not known during the last five years. Nipping at the root, the trend generated from the crisis of 2008. And in which case, investors in their positions will notice serious depreciations in their share prices, especially in sectors such as finance, construction, and those related to raw materials. .
Third incident: problems with the euro
The single European currency will undoubtedly be closely watched during this year due to the strong links to events that may unfold. To the problems that may arise on financing in Greece, will be added - new ones - such as the possible political stability over some of the community partners: Germany, France, Great Britain and Spain, mainly.
In some cases they are caused by the consultations that will take place this year in many of these countries. Good for legislative elections (Spain and France), or by processes of accession to the European Union (England). Without forgetting, of course, a possible instability in the German government that could finally affect the markets, and in a very negative way.
Fourth incident: business results below expectations
There are not a few the most authoritative voices that warn that the business results during this new fiscal year will not be as expected, and there may be certain adjustments in them. As a consequence of a stop in the activity of these companies. Even with results below those expected by the main financial intermediaries. It would be the definitive signal to indicate that the stock markets will not continue on the same path as in previous years.
Nevertheless, it will be time to take positions in those stocks that do meet your growth expectations. And that can mark the way for small and medium investors to select their investment portfolio. Not surprisingly, it is one of the keys to optimizing future operations in this period of so much uncertainty.
Fifth incident: possible rise in the price of crude oil
Although the evolution in the price of oil experienced a more than significant fall in the past year, going from 80 to 35 dollars a barrel, it does not mean that this trend will continue in the coming months. It's more, its upturn may be exacerbated as a result of the conflicts that develop in the environment of its main producers. And that could lead their prices to climb positions, at least to the barrier of 60 or 70 dollars.
Anyway, a falling crude is currently not well received by the markets. Especially because they fear that they will lead to a dangerously inflationary scenario for many of the world's major economies, particularly the European ones. And in any case, with the danger that the stock indices reflect this scenario so detrimental to the economy in general.
Sixth incidence: incidence of the rate hike in the United States
Although minor, it is a problem that can aggravate the trend of the stock markets, if the Federal Reserve of the United States prints a more aggressive tone to the rise in interest rates that already began at the end of 2015 with a rise of a quarter of a point. And after having been for many years with the price of money very cheap, practically at historical levels for many years.
Any deviation from established estimates can set the course for equity markets for a very long period of time.. From this conjunctural context, the setting for this year of financial intermediaries focuses on the European stock markets, to which they grant a greater potential for revaluation, above the markets on the other side of the Atlantic.
Seventh incidence: pay attention to the specific case of Spain
Finally, we should not forget what this community country is going through in its convoluted process to form a government, as a result of the last legislative elections that were held last December. What happens to form a government will depend - to a large extent - on the evolution of the equity markets. In this case referred to the national benchmark.
Even with the possibility that the electoral process will be repeated this year, and that it would not have a very positive effect on investors. Either way, and until this convoluted political scene clears up, You have the alternative of going to other less conflictive stock markets, at least during the first months of this year. Surely until a definitive solution is found on who will rule in Spain for the next four years. Or perhaps less, if there is an early general election, even within the next few months.