It has been a long time since the selective index of Spanish equities, the Ibex 35, has not moved so laterally. In a strip that moves between 9.200 and 9.600 points that are the ones that mark the trend in one direction or another. To the point that many small and medium investors are waiting for the breakage of one of these supports. Maintaining liquidity in your savings account to take advantage of business opportunities in the equity markets.
From this general scenario, there is no choice but wait, wait and wait again. For the equity markets to define themselves for once as fatigue is taking over the actions of investors. Not surprisingly, at the moment there are very few differences between their maximum and minimum prices, with divergences in the best of cases around 2%. With few options for trading operations to make your savings profitable in the shortest term, with all that this implies in the movements taken.
On the other hand, everything seems to indicate that when these supports can be broken, the movements will be of a great intensity, one way or another. And we must be prepared to develop some investment strategy to make the money invested in the equity markets profitable. Beyond other considerations of a technical nature and maybe even from the point of view of its fundamentals. So that in this way the movements in the bag can be optimized.
Ibex 35: very flat stability
In either case, something that defines the selective index of national equities is its great stability in recent months. It has not earned much, but it has not seen the depreciation of its most relevant values either. With differences in their quotes that are very small over the last few months and that can surprise a good part of the financial agents. Although some of them estimate that the selective index of national equities can revalue by up to 10% during this fiscal year.
While on the other hand, all signs point to it being at the expense of international equity markets. That will ultimately determine the trend that the Ibex 35 should take in the coming months to abandon the neutral trend in which it is currently immersed. Without the contracting volume be very striking, neither in one sense nor in the other and that is a parameter that can give some or other signal about what your performance will be from now on. Something that small and medium investors are waiting with some anxiety.
The tracks they can score
In any case, it will be necessary to be very attentive to the signals that are generated in the financial markets from now on. Because they are the ones that will determine our entry into the positions of the securities listed on the equity markets. While on the other hand, we cannot forget at any time that the financial markets are very sensitive to business results and in this sense they can capitalize on the change in trend, in one sense or another.
While on the other hand, it seems that all the data indicate that the profits of the companies are going to be lower than in previous quarters. Although not low very significant margins and to take them into account when taking positions in the equity markets, both in national markets and outside our borders. But that will be one of the sources of information that we can have to develop any kind of investment strategy. Beyond other technical considerations and even from the point of view of the fundamentals of the stock market values.
Securities overbought
Another aspect that will determine the IPO in the coming months is undoubtedly the purchase status of the shares. In this sense, it should be remembered that in these precise moments it is a situation in which the buying pressure is above the selling one and at any moment the law of supply and demand will have to be adjusted to the current reality presented by the markets. variable income. Where there are some stock values that are at the moment above your actual valuation. As for example, in the specific case of electricity companies, which has developed a very pronounced bullish rally in the first months of this year.
On the other hand, there are other proposals on the exchange that have generated very strong tours and they have far exceeded their target prices. And at any time they will have to drain these increases to return to their real state and that in general they represent the most speculative securities that are listed on the different stock indices of the national and international stock market. At the moment, they will not have to be touched as they generate risks that must be considered as very high and that can lead to the occasional negative surprise from these precise moments. Beyond other considerations of a technical nature and perhaps also from the point of view of its fundamentals.
Confidence indicator: what does it say?
The leading and confidence indicators have stabilized, even with the occasional rebound, but it is early to anticipate a change in trend. In this sense, the most evident recovery has been in the Expectations Component of the Confidence Indicator German ZEW, already showing five consecutive months of improvement from the October lows of el IFO also rebounded in March after six months of consecutive declines.
However, the Manufacturing PMI still shows no signs of recovery. In February it entered contraction territory (below 50), and in March it has continued to decline, touching the level of 47,6 (by the previous 49,6), the lowest level registered since last April 2013 In any case, these PMI records do not allow us to foresee an improvement in the growth rate, at least during the first part of the year. Another very different thing is what can happen in the second half of the year and where the scenario could change slightly.
What strategies can be used?
Taking an investment strategy at this time is nothing short of impossible due to the little margin of fluctuation with which companies are listed in the equity markets. Where may even operations to trade pose a serious problem for investment strategies by small and medium investors. Beyond the trends that may be generated in the not too distant future and with little prospect of making savings profitable from these approaches.
In any case, you can carry out some of the actions that we are going to show you from now on.
- Wait for the panorama to be definitively clear and be in complete liquidity to what may happen in the coming months. To support movements in the stock market with greater security in the orders that you are going to execute in the equity markets.
- You can take positions in values of more conservative or defensive profile that can give you a very high profitability in the medium and long term. With intermediation margins that exceed levels of 5% and that can help create a solid and above all stable savings bag.
- Another investment strategy is based on taking positions in alternative financial markets where greater dynamism can be given in the conformation of prices. As for example, in those of raw materials or precious metals, among some of the most relevant that there are at the moment.
- Formalize a fixed-term bank tax until the trend in equity markets changes. To obtain a return to savings, even if it is minimal, but in all cases it is guaranteed. With an interest rate that ranges between 0,20% and 0,75%, but exempt from any kind of commissions and other expenses in its management or maintenance.
- Serving as a bridging investment until it is the definitive moment to take positions in the stock markets. Without having to risk your capital available for investment at any time and become your greatest incentive to contract this banking product.
Without forgetting that any decision in advance can have very negative effects on the income statement at the end of the year. As it can make you delay the period of permanence to which you are going to direct your investments. To the point that you will have to wait longer until you have to liquidate your positions in the equity markets, which is after all what it is all about. In a year that is being very complicated for the stock market. Confidence Indicator