The latest report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cast doubts on the evolution of the international economy, by slowing down growth in the main geographical areas of the planet, and affecting the economic recovery. Not in vain, has lowered its expectations in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the main countries. From this economic scenario, can world instability stop our economy? There are many lights and shadows thrown by the new economic data.
There are many events that can influence the evolution of the Spanish economy. From really low oil prices - and despite the rebound that their prices have had in recent months - to the instability in equity markets. With trading sessions that as soon as they rise around 2%, as the next day they fall with the same intensity, even more. Are these parameters really warning that another recession is coming?
And that together with the rebound that Spain's risk premium is experiencing, as well as the political uncertainty as a result of the failure to form a government to print the economic guidelines for the coming years, it is not helping to consolidate the economic recovery of our country. Where the main international organizations have also lowered their growth levels for the next two years in neighboring countries.
What are the lights and shadows that this economic scenario can cause in the growth of Spain? In any case, it is not advisable to be pessimistic as a whole, since the latest report of the International Monetary Fund shows that Spain is the only country in the world whose growth forecasts are revised upwards, specifically 2,70%, or what is the same, two tenths above what is expected for this year.
Lights on economic recovery
Several are the factors that are helping consolidate these growth levels. And that you should take into account, not only for your relationships such as the markets for investment, but also for your status as a user. They will surely help you to develop an accurate investment strategy for the coming months, as long as you take into account what things favor us at these specific times.
In the first place, the fall in raw materials, which according to the general index have depreciated by around 30% during this period, and which is even more acute in the case of crude oil, whose prices are currently in the 40s barrier. dollars a barrel. Its effects are reaching the majority of drivers who can buy gasoline at service stations for a lower price than just a few years ago. With repercussions also on the companies that depend on this raw material.
Not of minor importance is that the money price cheaper than ever. As a consequence of the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower interest rates, and leave them at 0%. This strategy in community monetary policy is leading to greater access to business finance, and what is more important, at a lower cost. Also the personal loans offered by banks show more competitive interest levels, you can even formalize them with proposals at 6% or 7%.
This trend has also been transferred to mortgage loans. In this case, as a consequence of the evolution of the main reference index for formalizing mortgages, the Euribor, which for the first time in history it is at negative levels. In practice it will mean that the monthly payments will be more affordable for your personal interests, paying less money than before.
Not surprisingly, banks already sell mortgages with spreads below 1%. Even the most aggressive proposals are made without interest, and without other expenses in their management and maintenance. As specialists in the real estate market warn, it is a good time to buy a house. Although it will be necessary to analyze how long this trend can be maintained in the Euribor.
Another factor that is helping the economic recovery, undoubtedly, to strengthen the economic recovery in our country is derived from the strength of tourism and domestic consumption, partly also caused by the fall in the price of oil. It must be remembered that in recent months the number of visitors has increased notably. Benefiting practically all sectors of productive activity: restaurants, hotels, services, commerce, etc. Being, in any case, good news for the consolidation of the economic recovery.
In contrast, this trend is not being fully reflected in domestic equity markets. Although the benchmark index par excellence, Ibex 35, has been rising in recent months, caution is the general trend on the part of small and medium-sized investments. There is a certain resentment to invest the savings, because Stock market volatility is the new scenario that financial markets contemplate. It is the reality that you have to assume from now on.
Shadows that can affect recovery
Of course, not all of these are positive news for the Spanish economy, since there are others that impregnate with serious doubts, and that can shake the improvement of the main economic parameters of our country. Mainly of an economic nature, but reaching other connotations, especially those of a political nature. You must take them into account to formalize your investments in this difficult period.
- The main problem stems from the high public debt, one of the highest in the European Union, and which can act as a brake on the consolidation of the Spanish economic recovery, as noted by leading economic analysts. And that is being reflected in an increase in the risk premium, which is again approaching the level of 160 points, after having been below 100 points for many months.
- La excessive dependence on exports to Europe, which does not finish recovering, is another of the problems of our economy. And that is affected to the companies most linked to this commercial process. Precisely the slowdown of the community economy may be another of the obstacles that can be reached in this new scenario. Especially that of its main engine, which is none other than Germany.
- And at a third level, although not less important, is the political instability that can affect the economic recovery. The increasingly real possibility that on June 26 the Spanish will have to go to the polls again does not help at all to create a climate of trust in the Spanish economy. And that can be transferred in the coming days to the equity markets, with significant falls in the prices of listed companies. With a lower presence of monetary flows from abroad. Or what is the same, less presence of international investors.
Investor actions
Faced with this atypical scenario that presents the Spanish economy during the first months of 2016, there are not few investors who wonder what they can do with their savings. They do not know if it is time to invest them, and in what specific product. From this unusual scenario, it is one of the most hesitant exercises in recent years. Where there is no defined strategy, far from it.
To help you in this task, a series of tips on how you have to channel your investments can be very useful, and in which returns can be more favorable to your interests as a saver. It will not be an easy task, but at least you will have a few ideas to move the money in these months. Trying to make it profitable, even if it is minimally, but always with greater security and protection. It will be the key to the success of your operations in the markets.
- Looking for financial assets more profitable at all times, and less exposed to the instability of financial markets. From this perspective, German and North American bonds can be the best strategy to increase your assets. Not surprisingly, they are the ones that provide greater security at this time. And with better potential for revaluation.
- Diversifying investments. It will not be wise to focus on a single security, index or financial asset, but you should find models open to any scenario in the financial markets, both bearish and bullish.
- It will not be the most opportune time to focus your investments on highly sophisticated products, or high risk. Surely with them you can earn a lot of money, but the losses that your investment portfolio can generate will be very high. The risk will be enormous, and it is not worth taking positions in these products.
- To protect your actions in the markets, one of the best ideas is combine multiple products, which can affect equities, fixed income, but also other alternative designs. And even target those who are developing the best behavior during the first months of this year.
- It might be a time to be absent from equity markets, to see how they act during these next weeks. And if you have a positive response, start taking positions in the markets, although not excessively aggressive.
- And finally, you will always have the option of investing in securities that provide you with a high dividend yield. You can get up to 8% per year and guaranteed. And what is more important, without assuming excessive risks in your operations in the stock market. With a wide selection of values that maintain this characteristic.