No year is the same as another, and things seem to have gone wrong for the housing market. Or maybe not? The fact is that according to the latest data reflected the number of sales has contracted for the first time in 5 years. And a lower progression of the price rebound is beginning to be seen, in the case of purchases, which have been accompanying in recent years.
For rent, whose rise has been even more remarkable, the average rental price has risen 3% this 2019. In a context where real estate revaluations have been higher than salaries, what can we expect for 2020? Some voices blame that there could be a stagnation in prices due to political instability. Others to that the sector could begin to relax before the rebound that has been. But in any case, the best thing will be to be able to evaluate and contrast the new data released.
Evolution of the sale price of flats in Spain
The sale of flats fell by 3% in this past 3. This is the first year-on-year decrease in the number of sales since 2013, the year in which there was a decrease of 1%. Of the total transactions on homes, 9% correspond to second-hand, being 81% to new construction. Despite the fact that they tend to sell less, the new construction has also had its bad year, with sales falling by 5% on the total of transactions that had been carried out in the previous period.
Despite this, data that can invite optimism is that both 2018 and 2019 have sold more than half a million homes. Data that were not seen since 2007 and 2008 where these figures were exceeded. Some experts in the real estate market speak that after these years of increases of 10% per year, it is more a "consolidation" or "moderation" of the market rather than a slowdown.
Still and the decline, in general terms, the average house price rose above 3% in Spain. The provinces that registered the highest increases (over 10%) were Logroño with 20%, Huesca with 4%, Santa Cruz de Tenerife with 20%, Seville with 2%, and finally Pamplona , Soria, Ourense, Palma de Mallorca and Albacete between 15 and 1%. Madrid and Barcelona, have moderated their increases with 12% and -10% respectively.
The biggest price drops were registered in the provinces of Ciudad Real with -10%, Badajoz with -7%, Burgos with -4% and Tarragona with -7%.
The rent of the house and its unstoppable rise in prices
If something has managed to exceed the prices prior to the crisis, it is the rental of housing. At present, the highest prices that had ever been given are being recorded. And it is that the aversion to buy of the families before the financial instability is today more accused than before. This refusal to buy and choose to rent generates a rise in prices, as there are fewer apartments available. However, the most intense increases have occurred in large cities. A sign that has been attributed to the market's ability to "self-regulate".
Spain is still a country of owners, but curious about this, it is the data of rented houses. It has passed from 14% of rented homes in 2008 to 17% today. This phenomenon has occurred above all in the two main cities, Madrid and Barcelona, where the price increase has been so strong that it has forced many families to turn to this option. In addition, the profile of the buyer, where they do something else they focused on young people, today is different. The usual profile of the buyer are people over 35 years of age, with good and stable income. However, for younger people, the work environment is generally between precarious and low wages and little savings. A scenario that previous generations had not had.
Variations in the rental price in 2019
The rent rose an average of 4% in the whole of Spain. In Madrid, 4'4% more was paid and Barcelona had a smaller increase of 1%. On the other hand, what is shocking about this rising data is that investors did not foresee 8 as a year of increases, but rather of price stabilization. Some experts blame that the new rental law may have had unexpected effects on the rental price. This data is something that has been reflected in other European countries. Attempting to legislate on price, in an "artificial" way, can even have the unexpected effect, the opposite effect.
If we locate ourselves by autonomous communities, the ones that have registered the greatest increases are Navarra with 10%, Aragon with 6% and La Rioja with 9%. Among the smallest increases, we would find the Balearic Islands with 1%, the Canary Islands with an increase of 8%, and the Community of Madrid with 7%. That is, hikes in all Communities. And if we look in the provinces, there have only been two that have registered decreasesThese are Ourense with -2% and Teruel with -5%.
The ranking of the most expensive provinces where to rent a home is still led by Madrid, with a price of € 14 per square meter, and Barcelona with € 7 per meter.
What to expect for the housing market in 2020?
Although there are disparate figures and as we all know, making a reliable forecast is difficult, if there are trends to be expected. Among them, that of the moderation and stabilization of prices, which will continue with slight increases. For the more expensive areas of Madrid and Barcelona, the increases should continue, but at a much slower pace. The appetite for new construction housing will continue to exist, but there should be more promotions and buildings to avoid tensions in future prices.
The peripheral areas, with residential homes and usually larger ones, are expected to rise more notably. A phenomenon that occurs because despite the expected increases, prices will continue to be lower than those of its main cities. A common phenomenon, when the market begins to saturate due to the strong rises that have been registered in previous years.
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