One of the questions that small and medium-sized investors will be asking is how the Catalan “procés” is affecting Spanish equities and more specifically the values that are closely related to linked to this geographical area. Not surprisingly, some of them fear that they may be immersed in serious stock market instabilities as a consequence of this political scenario that is centering the end of the holidays. With the aim of entering and leaving the financial markets based on the evolution of these proposals offered by the continuous Spanish market.
At first, it can be detected that the "procés" is not influencing the valuations of these companies at all. And not much less than in the rest. It is true that their prices fall, but not as a consequence of this remarkable fact. But on the contrary, it is due to a series of variables that have to do with the march of the national and international economy. And above all with the operation of its business lines. From this analytical perspective, the best that can be said is that there is no news on the front lines. Another very different thing is what could happen if the independence process comes to fruition and in the end Catalonia separates from Spain.
In this context, many Catalan companies are listed on Spanish equities. In addition, some of them are the most relevant in their sectors, with a specific weight within the national stock index. They do not quote on their own account, as it might seem at first. Rather, their prices are developed under the same parameters as the so-called national values. In this sense, the "procés" is not affecting either negatively or positively. But in a neutral way, without special incidence with respect to the purchases and sales made by investors.
"Procés": Catalan values
First of all, it will be necessary to identify which are the companies that have their headquarters or operations center in Catalonia. Well, some of the most relevant are Caixabank, Banco Sabadell, Gas Natural or Abertis. None of them is suffering, at the moment, from the possible separatist movement. To the point that the last of them is even at historical highs as a result of the acquisition process by the Florentino Pérez construction company, ACS. The presence of the "procés" is not present at all in the evolution of their prices. Not surprisingly, it is being one of the most profitable values in recent weeks for small and medium investors.
The value of these companies is about 80.000 million euros. And not only have they not fallen in the equity markets. But on the contrary, you have shown in many of them an impeccable upward trend and from which thousands and thousands of Spanish savers have been able to benefit. Without the slightest deterioration in the national parks. In a clear example that politics and money go completely different places, without shortcuts in their respective paths.
Caixabank on the rise
The Catalan financial group has almost doubled its price during the last year. Going from being worth 2,6 euros a share to about four and a half euros. In a clear example of this reality that we are exposing. Right now it is at one of the highest levels this company has ever traded at. In addition, in a general environment, where the banking sector is going through many and strong instabilities as a consequence of the adjustment and lower profits of this professional segment.
For this reason, it is not surprising that a good part of financial analysts have assigned the recommendation of buy at value. Or in the worst case, how to keep. As it is evident that their actions are not being contaminated with the presumed effects of the Catalan “procés”. Because in addition, it is worth noting that its shares are currently performing better than some of the most significant values of the selective index of national equities. Of course, as of today there are no indications that these events can be generated. With similar hiring volumes every day.
Natural gas with strong instability
Another very different thing is what is happening to the international gas company. It does not develop an uptrend as in the previous case. But this time, it is due to internal problems that have more to do with their business. And very specifically in the Latin American area. Its market value at the moment is just over 20 euros per shares. A bit far from the 22 euros that he marked during the spring. But this depreciation has nothing to do with what happens in Catalonia. Not much less since they are affected by the movements of gas in the financial markets.
On the other hand, Gas Natural is one of the most representative values of Spanish equities. With countless clients who are distributed throughout all the autonomous communities of the state. It has also ignored these events that are unfolding in Spanish politics and in particular Catalan. To the point that it is recommended to form part of a stable and balanced investment portfolio for the next few years. Both for an aggressive investor profile and for a more defensive or conservative character.
The Sabadell in the recovery phase
Another of the flagships of the Catalan economy is this financial group with a strong presence in all areas of Spain. It is currently in a recovery phase, both in terms of its stock prices and its line of business. Not surprisingly, it has been one of the values on the Spanish stock market that has been hit hardest by the Brexit. Something that affects him much more than the "procés", at least in the short term. Currently its shares are trading around two euros, after being much higher. But it seems that the time has come to stabilize in the financial markets.
This listed company was always seen as one of the most vulnerable to the distancing of Catalonia from the rest of Spain. But for the moment the reasons for its declines are not due to this factor, but to the evolution of its business line and the decrease in intermediation margins. In this case, the advice from the analysts is not the buying advice, but due to the problems the financial group is going through. Another aspect that should be taken into account is that during the first half of the year, the bank earned 5,9% more than the previous year. A sign that indicates that the worst has already happened to the Catalan entity.
Exit of companies from Catalonia
Where the “procés” has been most noticed, although in a very limited way, is in the change of headquarters of some companies that were located in the Catalan provinces. Because in effect, this is the specific case of naturehose, one of the small-cap companies listed on equities. Well, its president and founder, Félix Revuelta, has decided to move its headquarters from Barcelona to Madrid. But the reasons he points to in this decision are "purely operational", in his own words. Some of what time has not come by substantially altering the value of the price of its shares.
This food and dietary habits company does not have a good exercise, losing about 4% so far this year. But the reasons are not due to the "procés", but to a adjustment in the formation of its value in a bag. After many years with significant revaluations, even in some of them above 10%. At the moment, it seems to be stabilized and of course there are no symptoms of what may be affected by this political and social process that is taking place in Catalonia.
Conclusions about this process
In any case, in the short term the effects on these values are not being felt. Although things could change significantly if the Catalan process is carried out definitively. By depending on many variables. The decrease could materialize, even with special virulence in certain values of these characteristics. Is something that is very difficult to foresee, even for financial agents with more experience in the markets. And where only time will dictate what is the verdict that large investors will take in the end. Or if on the contrary, everything will continue as before.
Because if there is a change in trend for this reason, it will not only involve Catalan values but also those of the country. Even with the possibility that other alternatives of the equities of the old continent could be affected. Not surprisingly, it is one of the scenarios that you should raise from now on. With the objective of not being caught off-the-foot by changing your positions in the financial markets. Well, it is after all that it tries to protect your savings above other technical considerations.