There is no doubt that the second part of the year is going to be very difficult to face the equity markets. Where there are many factors that can tip the balance in one direction or another. Although the prospects in these precise are not very favorable to your interests. Because there are still many questions to be resolved as of now. In what constitutes the main enemy for the interests of stock market users
From this general scenario, we are going to expose some of the most relevant factors and from which we can take advantage of to design any investment strategy. Either to open positions in the equity markets or to stay in liquidity in the savings account. So that in this way, we are in perfect conditions to make the savings profitable in the best possible way. From the point of view of all the profiles of small and medium investors: conservative, intermediate and aggressive.
On the other hand, we cannot forget from now on that these factors in the equity markets can be decisive in choosing the best stocks on the stock market. Even with the best prospects for look for broad returns for the medium and long term. From different treatments in the strategies to be used. Some of these factors are those that we are going to expose to you below.
Factors: trade war
The outcome of the trade war between United States and China It will be one of the most relevant aspects of this second part of this year. To the extent that it can affect the general trend of equity markets. In one sense or another and that can be used so that you can use a system to operate in the financial markets. Because it will be time to take a position for our relationships with the always complicated world of money. It may still be a few months for investors to see an outcome in this trade war between the two giants of the world economy.
The prospects at the moment are not at all promising since the decision of the president of the United States will not help much to impose optimism among small and medium investors. In the sense of imposing an increase in the price of tariffs on commercial products from China. With a more than evident risk that it is reflected in a decline in the international economy and that it can lead the stock markets of half the world to visit lows of the year in the price of the stock market values.
Brexit evolution
The exit of Great Britain from the European Union will continue to give a lot of play in the coming years. To the extent that it can exert its influence on the equity markets of the euro zone. Although perhaps not with the intensity that until now. Beyond other technical considerations and maybe also from the point of view of the fundamentals of the stock market values. Not surprisingly, Brexit is one of the most controversial points for the European economic policy. Without knowing for sure what will happen from now on.
While on the other, there is also the reflection that it can have in British politics in some very difficult moments in the equity markets. Where they can make things worse depending on the evolution in this really complex process for all financial agents. There will be no choice but to wait a few months to see the real impact it will have on the equity markets. Not surprisingly, it is a factor that can help you achieve better capital gains in the operations you carry out during these months.
Slowdown in the economy
Of course, the setback that the international economy may experience cannot go unnoticed. After the latest downward revisions by the different financial agents. And that can lead to a new period of recession that is latent in a good part of the economic spaces around the world. We will have to be very attentive from now on to know what is the best we can do in the equity markets. In order to make the right decision in these months that we have left until the end of this current year. And that with many possibilities of ending in a negative sense.
On the other hand, this factor may be the trigger for a downtrend in the bags of almost everyone. Going from bullish to bearish in a very short period of time, as shown by some of the most relevant analysts in the equity markets. Beyond other considerations of a technical nature from all kinds of approaches in investment strategies. It may be a more decisive factor than most small and medium investors may think.
Price correction
There is no doubt that share prices had risen a lot in previous years and that this part of the year may serve to initiate a correction in the share prices of listed securities. Although it remains to be known low what intensity This process will be carried out in the quote. In any case, it may be a very opportune time to undo positions in the equity markets. To opt for liquidity in the balance of the savings account of stock users.
While on the contrary, this period can serve as the basis for reaching minimum prices this year. So that in this way, the price of the shares can be bought at more competitive levels than up to now. In what could be considered a business opportunity that the equity markets offer us again. To reach a potential for appreciation much higher than a few years ago. In a few months that will surely be very intense due to the fluctuations in the price of these values.
Crisis in the European Union
Another aspect that should not be forgotten is that which has to do with governance in this political and economic space. Especially after the results of the last European elections. With a foreseeable instability and that can lead to a depreciation in the equity markets. Where it cannot be ruled out that it is a more decisive factor than what small and medium investors may think. Not surprisingly, it can generate a great volatility in stock prices and beyond other technical and fundamental considerations thereof.
Also very relevant is the fact that the member countries of the European Union are immersed in a process of lower European growth. And that without a doubt can generate your stock indices suffer corrections in their prices during the second half of the year. So that in this way, some more conservative strategy can be designed with the aim of preserving savings over other considerations. And that can be very useful at some point in this second semester of the year.
Tensions with Iran
Of course, one of the scenarios that can cloud equity markets is related to a conflict between the United States and Iran. Especially because of the impact it can have on the crude oil price. To the point that it can originate in international relations that may affect the formation of prices in some financial assets of special strategic relevance. While on the other hand, this fact can accelerate economic decline in some geographical areas. In short, be very careful with this geostrategic event.
Finally, note that there will always be other more secondary factors which may be more important than small and medium investors initially believe. With factors ranging from the most economical to the purely social approaches. Without forgetting other aspects that may emerge at some point in this second semester of the year. This is something that a large part of small and medium-sized investors expect, when they note that this period of the year is not going to be very beneficial for the equity markets.
It will also be very important, as regards the Spanish stock market, all investors will be aware of what may happen in the Catalan territory. With a clear impact on the price of the shares that can be very sensitive to everything that can happen in this episode in the national territory. Although under the influence of the previous factors that we have mentioned in this article. To be used for the operations of small and medium investors in the stock market, which after all is one of their main objectives in any kind of investment strategy.