Misika yese, kunyanya musika wekudyara, wakadonha gore rino. Asi kudonha kwekudyara mukati kukura masheya Zvinonyanya kukosha: Kukosheswa kwevanodyara mari vari kukurumidza kukurumidza kwakabviswa sezvo Fed inotanga mushandirapamwe wayo wehutsinye hwekukwira mumakumi emakore. Asi kana zvese izvi zvikwiriso zvikaita kuti hupfumi hweUS hudzike, hunogona kunyatsoshanda mukukura kwemasheya, kana tikaziva kuziva kuti ndedzipi…
Sei kuisa mari mukukura kwemasheya iri yakanaka recession hedge?
Iko kukwezva kwekudyara mukukura kwemasheya kunovandudza panguva yekudzikira, apo mamwe makambani mazhinji anoona purofiti yavo ichidzikira kana kudzikira. Isa imwe nzira, kana kukura kwakashata, vanoisa mari vanodirana kumakambani mashoma anogona kuramba achiunza purofiti - nemamwe mazwi, kukura kwemasheya.
Kuisa mari mukukura kwemasheya kwave kuri ruzhowa rwakanaka munguva dzakaoma. Kunobva: JP Morgan Asset Management
Kana hupfumi hweUS hwapinda mukuderera, iyo Federal Reserve inowanzo mira kana kudzoreredza mamwe emitengo yayo yapfuura. Izvo zvinobatsira kudyara mukukura kwemasheya, ayo maratidziro anonyanya kutarisisa kune shanduko mumitengo yemubereko.
Mukati memakore ekuma80, FED yakadzikisa mitengo kuti ichengetedze hupfumi. Kunobva: Marketwatch
Mumamiriro ezvinhu aripo, mamiriro ezvinhu akaipisisa aizoona Fed ichimisa chiyero ichikwira, ichibvisa zvipingamupinyi zvekukosha zvinotarisana nekukura kwekudyara kwemari gore rino. Muchiitiko chakanakisa, mitengo yaizodonha, zvichigadzira kudzokororwa kukuru kwekudyara mukukura kwemasheya.
Saka, ndeapi maitiro atinotevera kufunga nezvekudyara mukukura kwemasheya?
Isu hatisi zviri pamutemo mukuderera, uye hapana chikonzero chekumhanyisa uye kutanga kutenga izvozvi. Isu tinogona kutanga kuona inoyevedza masheya ekuwedzera kune yedu watchlist. Chaizvoizvo, makambani ane mukana wekugadzira kunze kana paine kudzikira. Tinokurudzira kuti uongorore aya matatu maitiro:
1. Kambani inobatsiraTere
Makambani asina purofiti ane kukura kwemari yakawanda anowanzoona kurasikirwa kwavo kuchikwira panguva yekuderera kwehupfumi. Izvi zvinomanikidza vazhinji vavo kuti vatengese migove mitsva nemitengo yakaderera kana kuunganidza zvikwereti zvakakura, zvese zvinobata vanogovana.
Mhando dzekudyara mukukura kwemasheya. Kunobva: WallStreetMojo
Nechikonzero ichi, zvakanakisa kutarisa chete kumakambani ane pundutso, ane purofiti yakakwira uye mihoro inokura nekukurumidza pachikamu chimwe nechimwe (EPS). Aya makambani anowedzera kusimba panguva yekuderera. Tinogona kufunga nezvavo se "kukura kwekudzivirira" zviito.
2. Mutengo unokwezva mutengo
Kunyange iwe uchida kuita mari mumastock ari kuona kukura muEPS yavo, hausi kuzoda kubhadhara zvakanyanya pakukura ikoko. Kuisa mari mumasheya ekukura anoita seanodhura kunogona kutipinza mudambudziko kana mhedzisiro yavo ikasasangana netarisiro yevatengesi, sezvakaitika munguva pfupi yapfuura Netflix.
Investment mumasheya seNetflix yakatambura panguva ye2022. Source: Bloomberg
Uye ngatitarisane nazvo, iwe unowanzo kuona kukura kunononoka (kana kudzikira) panguva yekuderera. Saka kana tichitsvaga masheya ekukura, isu tinofanirwa kutsvaga iwo ane mutengo unokwezva. Imwe nzira yekuita izvi kusefa masheya ne PEG ratios yakaderera (P/E yakakamurwa nereshiyo yekukura kwemuhoro). The online investment tool FINVIZ mungatibatsira here. Inotibvumira kuti tiongorore maitiro akawanda ekudyara mumasheya, kusanganisira iyo PEG.
Masheya ane yakaderera PEG ratios. Kunobva: Finviz
3. Kambani inogona kuunza purofiti panguva yekuderera
Rangarira, kana kukura kwehupfumi kwakawedzera kushomeka (kana kuti kwakashata), vanoisa mari vanodirana kumakambani mashoma anogona achiri kukura purofiti. Naizvozvo, basa rako nderekutsvaga makambani anogona achiri kukura purofiti panguva yekuderera.
Economic market cycles. Kunobva: Ana Trenza
Kambani inogona, semuenzaniso, kubatsirikana kubva kune yakafara maitiro asina kukanganiswa nekudzikira, senge mhepo kana solar kambani pane saiti ine zvibodzwa zvinogoneka kuvandudzwa. Kana kuti kambani inogona kuva nesimba rakasimba remitengo pazvinhu zvinodiwa nevanhu, kunyangwe munguva dzakaoma, sekambani yebiotechnology ine zvigadzirwa zvinoponesa hupenyu muindasitiri ine vashoma vanokwikwidza.
Isu tinotora sei mukana uyu mukana wekudyara masheya?
Companies like Vestas Mhepo Maitiro (VWS), CropEnergies (CE2) kana Kutanga Solar (FSLR) ndiyo yakanakisa nzvimbo mune ino chikamu. Kana, kune rimwe divi, isu tichida kusiyanisa mari yedu mumasheya muchikamu ichi, tinogona kuwana kuratidzwa nekudyara mu iShares Global Yakachena Simba (ICLN).
Yeuka, mamiriro ehupfumi anogona kuchinja nokukurumidza. Naizvozvo, kugadzirira iko zvino kuchatiisa muchinzvimbo chakasimba, takagadzirira kugadzirisa mapotifoliyo edu kana nguva yasvika zvakare yekudyara masheya.