Ray Dalio, bhirionea muvambi we hedge fund chikuru munyika, inozivikanwa nokuda kwezvinhu zvakawanda, asi pamusoro pezvose nokuda kwe "bubble indicator", iyo inyanzvi. Izvo zvakavakirwa pamibvunzo mitanhatu inobatsira kuona kana isu tiri munzvimbo isingagoneki yemutengo wepamusoro, uye yakaridza alarm pamasheya eUS kutanga kwegore rapfuura. Saka ngatitarisei zvakare toona kana bubble iro richiripo ...
Ndeipi mibvunzo mitanhatu yaRay Dalio?❓
1) Mitengo yemasheya yakakwira zvakadii maererano nemaitiro echinyakare akakosha ekukoshera seP/E kana mihoro pachikamu chimwe chete? 💱
Parizvino, kuyerwa uku kunenge kuri pakati nepakati. Mushure mekudonha kwemazuva ano kwemasheya eUS, parizvino iri pachiyero che50% mumakore zana apfuura.
2) Ko mitengo inoderedza mamiriro asina kugadzikana? 🌡️
Izvi zvinosanganisira kuongorora mazinga ekukura kwemari yemakambani anodiwa kuti masheya awedzere mabhondi. Chiyero ichi chakakwira mumakore maviri apfuura sezvo goho remabhondi rakura, zvichikwidza dambudziko rekudzoka kwemasheya uye ikozvino pa60% yemasheya eU.S. Kureva kuti, kuderedzwa kwemari kukura mumatokisi kwakakwira zvishoma, uye izvi zvinotonyanya kukosha muUS software chikamu.
3) Vangani vatsva vekudyara vakapinda mumusika nguva pfupi yadarika?🚪
Mafashamo evakapinda vatsva, kunyanya vatengesi vadiki vanokwezvwa nemitengo iri kukurumidza kukwira, kazhinji inovhura maziso. Ichi chiyero chakakwira pamusoro pe90% muna 2020 mushure mekuwanda kwevatengesi vezvitoro mumatokisi akawanda. Asi nguva pfupi yadarika, chiitiko chekutengesa mumisika chadzokera kune pre-Covid mavhareji.
4) Pakazara, manzwiro anoita investor akanaka sei? 😐
Kana iwe uine tarisiro zvakanyanya, vatengesi vazhinji vanogona kunge vakatoisa zvese zvavanazvo, zvichireva kuti vanogona kunge vari vatengesi kupfuura vatengi. Hazvisizvo zvino. Manzwiro ari mumusika haana kunaka zvakanyanya, achisvika pamazinga atakaona panguva yekudzika kwakadzika kwedotcom bubble kudonha.
5) Kudyara kunopihwa mari nekuwedzera kwepamusoro? 🎰
Vatengi vanovimba zvakanyanya pamuganho (mari yakakweretwa) kana zvigadzirwa zvakasimudzirwa senge sarudzo zviri panjodzi yekumanikidzwa kutengesa mukuderera. Sezvo zvinhu zvamira, musika weUS uri kuita zvakanaka chose, nechiyero ichi chakagara pa50%.
6) Makambani ari kuisa mari mune ramangwana ravo here? 🛒
Kushandiswa kwebhizinesi pazvinhu zvakaita semidziyo nemafekitori kunogona kuratidza kana tariro yemusika wemasheya yakanganisa hupfumi chaihwo, zvichigadzira zvingangoitika (uye zvinodhura) zvinotarisirwa mukukura kwekuda. Ichi chiratidzo parizvino chiri pa40%, kana zvishoma pazasi peavhareji, pamwe yakakanganiswa nenyaya dzirikuenderera mberi dzekugovera cheni.
Saka, chii chinotaridza bubble chiratidzo?🚥
Chati iri pazasi inoratidza chiyero chebubble chakaumbwa chakashandiswa kumasheya eUS mukati memakore 110 apfuura uye inoratidzwa sezvikamu. Muchidimbu, iyo yakakwirira yekuverenga, iyo yakawanda iyo chiratidzo inoreva kubhuroka kwemusika wemasheya. US stocks parizvino yakadzikira 40%. Izvi zvinoreva kuti isu hatisisiri mububble.
The US stock bubble indicator iri mu 40th percentile.Kwakabva: Bridgewater Associates
Zvino sezvo bubble raputika, inguva yekudzokera here?🔮
Pasina rubatsiro rwekristaro bhora, zvakaoma kupa mhinduro chaiyo kumubvunzo uyu, asi mhinduro yenguva pfupi inogona kuva: Kwete. Ngationei... nepo kudzokororwa kwemusika kwave kwakakosha, kuderedzwa kwekukura kwemari yeramangwana kuchiri kukwirisa zvichienzaniswa nenhoroondo, kunyanya kana kudzikira kuri kufungidzirwa kuti kuri kuuya. Pamusoro pezvo, masheya eUS achiri kutaridzika kuwedzeredzwa nemamwe matanho.
Zvakaitika kare zvinoratidza kuti kana kuputika kwatanga, mabhavhu anowanzo gadzirisa zvakanyanya kusvika kune yakaderera—kureva, kutengesa zvinopfuura zvingataurwa nehwaro—pane kungogadzirisa pamitengo “yakajairika”. Uye izvi zvakanyanya-kururamisa zvinogona kuve hurongwa hwakareba nekuti mabhuru anowanzo tora nguva kuti anyatso zorora. Kare, makore maviri munyaya ye 1929 bubble uye gore rimwe munyaya ye dotcom bubble yekupera kwema 90. Isa imwe nzira, chokwadi chokuti mashizha haasisiri pamagumo ebhubhu Hazvirevi kuti ivo vari. tenga zvakanaka manje. Nhoroondo inoratidza kuti pane zvimwe zvakaipa zvichauya. Nhoroondo haidzokorore, asi inowanzoita nhetembo... Mark Twain