Musika weBritish stock market ndeumwe weanovengwa zvakanyanya pasi rose. Vanodyara mari vanoifuratira, maneja ehomwe anoidzivirira uye ivo chete vanoisa mari mairi makambani eBritish ivo pachavo. Asi kana boka rezvinhu rakazvidzwa kwazvo, unoziva kuti unenge wakachenjera kutarisa. Saka ngationei kuti sei mukana uchizviratidza mumusika wakachipa pasi rose.
Sei pasina munhu anoda migove yeBritish?
Iyo UK yakabatwa mudutu rekukura kwakamira uye inflation isingaregi. Bhizinesi reEngland (BoE) rave richisimudza mhindu, richivaendesa kunenge kudzungu dzakakwirira, kuedza kutonhora kukwira kwemitengo, iyo yakasvika pachiyero chavo chepamusoro mumakore makumi mana pakupera kwe40. Uye iyo yakakwirira yepamusoro yave ichiisa. kudzvinyirira kwakasimba pakukura kwebhizinesi uye purofiti.
Uye ndizvo chete muhupfumi. Kana tikatarisa kune makuru eku UK stock indices tinowana vanogadzira zvinhu (seShell, BP neRio Tinto), vanodzivirira vatengi vezvitoro (seUnilever, Diageo neBritish American Tobacco), mabhanga (akaita seHSBC) nemakambani emishonga. (zvakadai seAstraZeneca neGSK), iine mashoma tekinoroji uye kukura masheya. Uku kurerekera kune zvekudzivirira uye kukosha kwemasheya kwave kunetsa panguva iyo vatengesi vachinja vakananga kukura uye cyclical stocks.
Saka sei uchiswedera kuBritish stocks?
Kana tichizodyara mari kwenguva refu, tinofanira kutarisa pane izvo zvinofambisa izvo zvine munyu zvenguva refu kudzoka: yakachipa yekutanga kukosha, inoyevedza migove, nekuvandudza zvakakosha zvekambani (semuenzaniso, kukura kwepurofiti yepamusoro uye migumo yepurofiti). Kufanotaura kwenguva pfupi kwezvikamu zveBritish zvinogona kuvhiringa, asi zvinhu izvi zvinonongedza mazuva arinani kune avo vane moyo murefu:
1. Valuations: Migove yeBritish ndiyo yakachipa pamusika.
Morgan Stanley akatsikitsira nhamba ndokuona kuti masheya eBritish pari zvino ndiwo akachipa pasi rose. Haisi chete yakachipa kana ichienzaniswa neinodhura yevamwe vekuAmerica, asi zvakare ichienzaniswa neEuropean (yebhuruu mutsara) uye yepasirese (yakasviba mutsara) mutsara, ayo akanyorwa pazvidzikiso zve20% uye 40% zvichiteerana. .
Uye izvi hazvisi nekuda kwekubatana kwakasimba kweUK kurudzi rwezvikamu zvinowanzove nekushomeka kwakaderera: kunyangwe mushure mekugadzirisa zvikamu izvi, migove yeUK ichiri kutengeserana nechikwereti che30% kuderedzwa kune vezera ravo repasi rose. Zvinotonyanya kukosha, migove yeBritish haisi kungochipa kune mamwe matunhu, asiwo zvinoenderana nenhoroondo yavo, zvichiita kuti mukana wacho uwedzere kuyedza.
Kuve nechokwadi, yakachipa asset haisi nguva dzose kutenga kwakanaka. Asi, kazhinji, kuwana midziyo yakachipa kunopa chiyero zvishoma mukuda kwedu, kunyanya mukufamba kwenguva. Vanodyara mari vanowanzoisa kukosha kwakanyanya pane yakashata yapfuura yapfuura uye vanotadza kuona ramangwana rakajeka. Naizvozvo, kana zvese zvichitaridzika zvisina kujeka, manzwiro anowanzoisa kukosha pasi pekukosha kwavo. Kana isu tikapedzisira tatenga pasi, isu tinowanzo batsirikana kubva kune zvishoma zvakasviba zvakakosha uye nekukwira kwekukosha kwepamusoro. Muchokwadi, zvidzidzo zvakaratidza kuti kukoshesa ndechimwe chezvinhu zvakakosha mukubatsira kwenguva refu.
2. Zvikamu: pakati pezvibereko zvinoedza zvikuru munyika.
Kunyangwe kana migove yeUK ikasakwira, goho ravo repamusoro re4,3% (rakapetwa kaviri iro remasheya eUS) zvinoreva kuti ticharamba tichiita purofiti yakawanda. Batanidza izvi nekudzoka kwakasimba pakuenzanisa (kuenzaniswa nemakambani ekuUS) uye kudzokororwa kwemitengo, uye migove yeUK kamwe kamwe inotaridzika kushoma kana ichienzaniswa nezvimwe zvinopa goho repamusoro semari nemasecurities. Uye zvechokwadi, maBritish masheya anogona kunge asiri maNvidia matombo anorota vamwe vanoisa mari. Asi rangarira; Kakawanda ikamba, kwete tsuro, ndiyo inotanga kusvika patambo.
3. Zvinokosha: nzvimbo yekuvandudza.
Mitengo yemazuva ano yakatotora pfungwa yekusagadzikana macroeconomic maonero. Naizvozvo, chero kuvandudzwa kumberi uku kunogona kuwedzera mitengo yekugovana sezvo vanoisa mari vachiongorora tarisiro yavo. Zvinhu zvave kutotarisa kumusoro: data reinflation rakaunza kushamisika kwakanaka svondo rapfuura, neUK ichiisa muhomwe huru yekusimudzira kune 2023 GDP kufanotaura kusvika parizvino gore rino. Kunyangwe munguva yepakati, chiyero chemubairo wengozi chinotaridzika chaizvo.
Nekufamba kwenguva, kumwe kusasimba kwemusika weUK kunogona kuve kwakasimba. Tinogona kuzviwana tave padanho rekukura reupfumi hwenyika, nekukwira kwemitengo uye mitengo yemubereko yakakwira kudarika makumi emakore achangopfuura. Pamusoro pezvo, hurumende dzinogona kushandura pfungwa dzadzo kubva kumari dzichienda mukukura kwehupfumi, dzichishandisa mari inosimudzira kufambisa mberi. Mumamiriro ezvinhu akadaro, mashizha ane mari, vagadziri vezvigadzirwa uye "hupfumi hwekare" semabhangi uye vanovaka dzimba vanogona kudarika kukura kwepamusoro-kubhururuka kwemashure ekare.