Nekunetsana kuri kuramba kuchikwira kwezvematongerwo enyika, takaona kukwira kwemitengo yezvinhu, kunyanya gasi neoiri. Asi nerumwe rutivi, kune zvimwe zvinhu zvakaita semhangura zvakarasikirwa (35% YTD) kusvika parizvino gore rino. Muchinyorwa chanhasi tiri kukupa dzidziso yekudyara mari muzviwanikwa kuti uone kuti chii chakonzera kurasikirwa kwesimbi yakakosha iyi uye matorero emikana inomuka.
Sei mutengo wemhangura wadonha zvakanyanya?🤦♀️
Gore rapfuura, mafekitori paakatangazve kuita basa mushure mekumbomira kwenguva refu kwakakonzerwa nedenda, mutengo wemhangura wakasvika pakukwirisa nguva dzese. Gore rino yakawedzera zvakanyanya, sezvo kurwisa kweRussia kuUkraine kwakawedzera mafuta kumoto weinflation. Asi kamwe-kamwe, kuwa kwakauya ... Pasina mubvunzo, kudiwa kwemhangura kwakawa pamwe chete nekuderera kwekukura kwehupfumi hwepasi rose nekufanotaura kweramangwana. Izvi zvinodaro nekuti mhangura ndiyo barometer yehutano hwehupfumi hwenyika (iye anozivikanwa nezita remadunhurirwa rekuti "copper doctor"). Munguva pfupi yapfuura, kutya pamusoro pekuderera kwehupfumi kwakura. Asi kudonha kwemutengo kwe35%, pakutanga pakuona, kunoratidzika kunge kwakawedzera.
Chinhu chimwe chekuziva nezvemhangura ndechekuti inotapukirwa nekufamba kwemusika kusingatarisike. Pane zvikonzero zvakawanda zveizvi, asi hezvino zviviri zvakakosha:
1. Kuwanda kwecopper supply.😵
Uku kudonha kwakanyanyisa kunokonzerwa ne "elasticity yekugovera", ndiko kuti, kushanduka kunoita vagadziri vemhangura kune shanduko mukudiwa. Munguva pfupi, mhinduro ndeyokuti: kwete zvakawanda. Vanowanzoomerwa nekugadzirisa kugadzirwa kuti kuwedzere kana kuderera mukudiwa, zvinoreva kuti kupa kunove "kunamira" kana "inelastic." Chiripo ndechekuti kucherwa kwemhangura inzira inodhura uye ine mitengo mikuru ine chekuita nekutanga kana kumisa kugadzirwa. Izvo zvakasiyana nekubviswa kwezvinhu zvakasvibiswa semafuta, semuenzaniso, apo dzimwe nguva zvinokwana kuwedzera kana kuderedza kuyerera kwegomba munguva pfupi.
Kukura mukudiwa kwemhangura kunoisa elasticity yekugovera pasi pekunetseka mune inomhanyisa shanduko yesimba. Kunobva: Wood Mackenzie.
Kusagadzikana ikoko kwakanaka kumitengo yemhangura apo kudiwa kunowedzera nekukurumidza kupfuura zvinotarisirwa. Asi munzvimbo inopfava yekuda seyazvino, zvinoreva kuti kune mhangura yakawanda kupfuura inodiwa, ndosaka mitengo ichidonha.
2. Inelastic demand.🙋♂️
Kune rimwe divi, isu tine kudiwa, chimwe chinhu chekufunga nezvacho mukati mekudzidziswa kwedu mukudyara mune zvigadzirwa. Kwemhangura, kudiwa kunewo inelastic. Havasi vagadziri chete vasingakwanisi kugadzirisa zvavanoita panhunzi. Vatengi vanoona zvakare kuti zvavanoda zvemhangura hazvishanduke chete zvichibva pane izvo simbi inodhura. Kune vatengi, zvidzikiso zvakadzika (semuenzaniso 35%) pazvinhu zvakaita semota, zvipfeko kana zvishongo zvegoridhe zvinogona kuwedzera kudiwa. Asi kumakambani, akadai sevakavaka imba kana vagadziri vemotokari, kudonha kwemutengo wemhangura hakuzokanganisa kudiwa. Vanongoda huwandu hwepombi dzemhangura kana waya dzemagetsi. Mune mamwe mazwi, kudiwa kwemhangura kunopesvedzerwa nezvimwe zvinhu kunze kwemutengo, nebasa rehupfumi riri mutyairi mukuru.
Global copper production forecast kubva 2006 kusvika 2026. Source: Mining Technology.
Mhedzisiro ndeye kaviri inelasticity pakati pekuda nekupa. Munguva pfupi, shanduko diki mukuda kunobva mukuita kwehupfumi hunogona kukonzera kuwanda kwekutengesa mumusika, izvo zvinozoita zvine simba pamutengo, nekuti kunyangwe nemitengo yekuderedzwa inogona kukurudzira kutenga.
Ndeipi fungidziro yenguva yemberi yemhangura?🔮
Zvinenge zvisingabviri kunyatsofanotaura mutengo wenguva pfupi wezvigadzirwa. Zvakakwana kudzokorora kudzidziswa kwekudyara kwatakapa nhasi kuti tifungidzire mitengo yakanaka munguva pfupi iri kutevera yeiyi mbishi zvinhu. Izvi handizvo zviri kuitika iye zvino, sezvo mamiriro akaita zvinhu pasi rose anotiudza kuti kukura kwehupfumi kuchanonoka kwenguva yakareba. Ndicho chikonzero, munyaya yemhangura, zvine musoro kushivirira kusagadzikana uye kuisa pfungwa pane nguva refu, apo zvikonzero zvose zvekufara pamusoro pemhangura zvinoshanda nhasi sezvazvaive gore rakapera. Pane zvinhu zviviri zvekusimbisa pamusoro pekukura kwesimbi yakakosha iyi munguva refu:
1. Demand ichakura ne decarbonization.💨
Kudiwa kwenguva refu kwemhangura kungangove kuchifambiswa nemaitiro makuru emagetsi emagetsi uye mota dzemagetsi. Izvi zvinoda kugadzirwa kwemhangura yakawanda. Uyezve, nematambudziko akatangwa gore rapfuura neRussia, hurumende dzekuMadokero dziri kushanda nekukurumidzira kuderedza kuvimba kwadzo nemafuta efossil.
Kutsamira kwesimba kwenyika dzeEuropean Union. Kunobva: European Parliament.
2. Chikumbiro chichatora nguva kuti chiitwe.⏳
Padivi rekupa, iyo elasticity nharo inogona kubata kwenguva yakati iri kuuya. Mukufamba kwenguva refu inogona, uye pamwe ichakura kuti ienderane nekukura kuri kudiwa. Asi kuwedzera kwekupa kunotora nguva uye, ikozvino, vagadziri vanoita sevasiri kukurumidza. Muna 2012, kekupedzisira apo mutengo wemhangura wakaona kukura kwezvinhu zvinotungamirwa neChina, makambani emigodhi aive mubishi kuzadzisa kudiwa kukuru kwe "supercycle". Vagadziri vakuru vemhangura Freeport-McMoRan, Rio Tinto y BHP Ivo pamwe chete vakashandisa $42.000 bhiriyoni mumari yekushandisa kuti ikure kuwanikwa, inomiririra 30% yekutengesa. Humwe huwandu hukuru kana uchienzaniswa nenhamba dze2021, kwavakaita madhora zviuru gumi nezvishanu zvemadhora, iri pakati pegumi muzana yekutengesa.
Kuenzanisa pakati peFreeport-McMoRan, BHP neRio Tinto. Kunobva: Koyfin
Kana ichi "chirango chekushandisa" chichienderera mberi uye kudiwa kwenguva refu kunobata, mhangura haigoni kutambura kubva pakuwedzerwa kukuru, uye izvo zvakanaka pamutengo wayo. Iriwo nhau dzakanaka kumakambani emigodhi yemhangura. Uku kusanganiswa kwemutengo wemhangura wepamusoro uye chirango chekushandisa kwemakambani kunofanirwa kutungamira kumakore mashoma ekubuda kwakasimba kwemahara kwemari. Uyezve, mitengo yemigodhi yemigodhi yakatowira mukuwirirana nemhangura yemhangura ichangopfuura. Chokwadi ichi chinoderedza, zvishoma zvishoma, njodzi inofungidzirwa nevashambadziri, kunyanya tichifunga nezve yambotaurwa kwenguva pfupi kusatarisika kwemitengo yezvigadzirwa.
Pane mukana wekudyara here?👀
Munguva pfupi, uye neiyo elasticity nharo yataurwa pamusoro, isu tinogona kusarudza kupfupika neiyo WisdomTree Copper 1x Daily Short ETF (SCOP), kunyanya kana tichitarisira nguva yakaoma yekukura kwehupfumi hwenyika munguva pfupi. Asi tinofanira kungwarira, sezvo kana zano redu richibva pagwara richangoburwa remutengo wemhangura, tinotarisana nenjodzi dzakafanana dzakabata mabhuru emhangura asina kungwarira: kusatarisika.
Nokudaro, tinofanira kungwarira pamusoro pekusafungidzika uye kusagadzikana kwemutengo wemhangura munguva pfupi. Uye pamusoro pezvose, ramba wakatarisa pamukana wenguva refu, unoramba uchikwezva. Zvakare, tinogona kufunga kutora mukana wekumwe kuderera kwemitengo semukana wekutenga migove yevacheri vakaita se. Freeport (FCX), Rio Tinto (Rio) uye BHP. Mushure mekudzidziswa uku kwekudyara kwakabatana nemhangura, tinoda kukuyeuchidza kuti musika uyu unochinja zvakasiyana kubva kune vamwe. Naizvozvo, isu tinokurudzira zvakasimba kuti iwe uongorore yedu commodity investment training article kudzivisa kukanganisa uye kushanda zvakanaka.