Kuisa mari mumatokisi ekukosha kwakaderedza misika mumakore mashoma apfuura. Apa ndipo pane «Magic formula»naJoel Greenblatt: Maneja ane mukurumbira pasi rose hedge fund maneja ari nyore kutevedzera anogona kutibatsira kuburitsa zvakanaka zvenguva refu pakudyara kwemasheya edu. Uye zvese zvatinofanira kuita kutevedzera aya matanho akareruka…
Joel Greenblatt's "magic formula":📜
1. Wana kambani yakanaka🕵🏻
Greenblatt inoshandisa chiyero chimwe chete kutsanangura "kambani yakanaka" yekudyara kwemasheya: kudzoka pamari yakaiswa mari (ROIC) Mune maonero ake, makambani anowana yakakwira ROIC, i.e. avo vanoshandisa mari yevanoisa mari yavo kuwedzera kukosha kumabhizinesi avo zvinobudirira, vangangove vane mukana wakakosha: kugona kuchengetedza mukana wemakwikwi pamusoro pevakwikwidzi. Izvo zvinofanirwa, sekureva kweGreenblatt, kubvumira kambani kuchengetedza pamusoro-avhareji miganho kuchengetedza chikamu chemusika, zvichitungamira kune yakanaka uye yakagadzikana mihoro kukura mukudyara kwedu mumasheya erudzi urwu.
Kuti uongorore ROIC, Greenbatt inotarisa mihoro isati yawana mubereko uye mutero (EBIT) kuyera purofiti uye mari inobatika inoshandiswa (net working capital plus net fixed assets) sechiyero chemari. Kukura kwehukama, zviri nani kunaka kwebhizinesi. Mukuita, Greenblatt inoisa "kambani yakanaka" nekuverenga uku: EBIT ÷ (Net Fixed Assets + Working Capital).
2. Tsvaga kambani yakanaka pamutengo wekutengesa🛒
Kutenga kambani yakanaka hakuna kukwana. Kuti tiunze pamusoro peavhareji inodzoka, isu tinofanirwa kuita mari yedu mumasheya nemitengo yebargain. Greenblatt's favourite valuation metric kukosha kwebhizinesi (EV) pamihoro pamberi pemubereko uye mutero (EBIT). Anosarudza chiyero ichi kune mamwe echinyakare, senge mutengo-mubairo reshiyo (PER), nekuti haina kukanganiswa nekuchinja kwemazinga echikwereti (EV inosanganisira zvese zvakaenzana uye chikwereti) uye mutero. Asi mukuverenga kwake, Greenblatt anodzoreredza hukama kuti ave nechokwadi chekuti nhamba yepamusoro inoreva mwero wekuyeresa unoyevedza. Iyi chiyero cheEBIT/EV inodaidzwa kuti "earnings yield" uye inoratidza kuti kambani inowana yakawanda sei zvichienderana nemutengo wekutenga kwekambani. Nokudaro, kuverengwa kwemutengo wekutengesa ndeichi:
Chiyero cheEV/EBIT chakatsanangura. Kunobva: Valortis
3. Sefa zvaunowana uye tenga zvakanakisa🧮
Isu takatokwanisa kuita ongororo yedu yekudyara muzvikamu zvemakambani anovimbisa nemitengo. Zvino isu tinofanirwa kusefa kuti ndeipi yekudyara mari uye sei. Chekutanga, isu tinofanirwa kurambidza kuisa mari muzvitoro zvatisingakwanise kushandisa. Chero ani zvake ane makepisi emusika asingasviki $50 miriyoni, sezvo ari kudhura zvakanyanya kutengesa. Isu tinobvisawo mari mune zvemari nekudyara masheya. mabasa ehurumende sezvo mabhizinesi avo emhando dzakasiyana zvakanyanya kuita kuti aenzaniswe.
Greenblatt Stock Investment Strategy Guidelines. Kunobva: TheEconomicTimes
Tevere, isu tinofanirwa kurongedza makambani "akanaka uye akachipa" zvichienderana nekuti akanaka uye akachipa sei. Tinogona kushandisa ma metrics ari pamusoro (ROIC neEV) kuaisa pamberi. Uye kana apedza, tinosanganisa iwo maviri Classification. Zvino zvatava nekuongorora kwedu kwekudyara kwemasheya kwakagadzirira, tinodyara mu5-7 yavo tichishandisa 20-33% yemari yatinoda kuisa mukati megore rekutanga, tozodzokorora kota yega kusvika tapedza mari yedu. Nenzira iyi, tichava neanosvika makumi maviri emasheya. Isu tinotengesa kambani yatakaita kwegore, todzoreredza capital. Isu tinodzokorora kweasingasviki makore matatu, zvisinei nepurofiti yekudyara.
Mashiripiti aGreenblatt anonyatsoshanda here?⚙️
Zvinoita, chero bedzi tine nguva yakareba yekudyara nguva. Greenblatt's mashiripiti formula ndeye, pamusimboti wayo, kukosha kwemari yekuisa mari, uye kukosha kwekudyara mari nzira dzinofanirwa kurova musika kwenguva refu. Greenblatt paakaburitsa bhuku rake pane iyi mashiripiti formula, zano rakazvirumbidza nekudzoka kweanoda kusvika 30% pagore, zvakapetwa kaviri izvo S&P 500 yakagadzira panguva imwe chete. Asi mazano ekukosha anogona zvakare kupfuura kwenguva refu yekudzoka kwakaderera, uye iyo yemashiripiti formula haina mutsauko. Yakave nekuita kwakanaka mukati memakore gumi apfuura, chokwadi, asi ichiri kuita pasi peiyo S&P 500.
GreenBlatt stock investment strategy performance nhoroondo. Kunobva: InvestorsEdge
Ikozvino, zvisinei, maitiro ekukosha, uye mashiripiti fomula, akanyatso kurongeka kuti awane kudzoka kwakakwirira zvakare mumakore gumi anotevera: kukura kwemasheya, seaya ari muchikamu chetekinoroji, anowanzo ari padanho repamusoro rekukosheswa, uye masheya Kukosha kwemasheya kwakamboita kare zvakanyanya. zvakanaka mushure menguva refu yekudzoka kwakaderera.
Tingatora sei mukana wemashiripiti formula?🤷♂️
Pane nzira nhatu dzatingashandisa mashiripiti aGreenblatt:
- Tinogona kutevedzera manyorerwo acho kune tsamba, kuita inofambira mberi equity investimendi mune yepamusoro yakanyorwa masheya chikamu chimwe nechimwe uye kutengesa izvo zvatakabata kwegore. Greenblatt anogadziridza runyorwa rwake nguva nenguva uye anogara achigovera runyorwa rwemasheya anokurudzirwa nefomati. Tinogona kuwana sefa uye rondedzero yezviito pano.
- Tinogona kushandisa Greenblatt's stock list kugadzira mazano, vachitsvaga mikana inovimbisa yekudyara mari vasati vapinda mumhando dzebhizinesi ravo. Kana isu tiine moyo murefu uye kugona kuitisa kwakaringana hunhu ongororo, tinogona kugadzira yakanyatso kutarisisa portfolio yedu 5-10 stock investment mazano apo tine chivimbo chikuru kana kudzivisa makambani atinotenda kuti achaita zvisina kunaka.
- Isu tinogona kushandisa fomula yemashiripiti sekutanga uye kuvandudza yedu yakazvimirira yakazara stock investment analysis sefa