Zvinotaridza kuti iyo dambudziko gasi Kondinendi yekare ichine kuvuza kwekuvhara ... Kushomeka kwegasi, kugoverwa uye kudzima kunogona kuitika kuri kuumba kutipa chando chakaoma kuEurope. Hurumende dziri mubloc dziri kushanda kuzadza matangi egasi kana Russia ikakanganisa kuyerera kwegasi, asi isu tingangove negasi rakakwana kwemwedzi miviri kana mitatu. Saka, iko zvino zhizha rava kupera, inguva yakanaka yekufunga nezvemibairo mikuru mishanu ingangoitika munguva ino yechando, uye kuti tingavagadzirira sei masheya edu ekudyara mari…
1: Mutengi anotambura asi vanogadzira gasi vachibatsirwa.🎭
Kukura kwemutengo wegesi kungave nhau dzakanaka kune vanogadzira gasi, asi kwete kune vatengi vekuEurope nemaindasitiri. Uye zvakatonyanya kuipa, idambudziko nemhedzisiro yenyika. Semuenzaniso, ngatitarisei mutengo weDutch gasi (TTF), mutengo wekutarisa muEurope. Mitengo yavo yakawedzera zvakapetwa kanomwe kubva pakatanga hondo pakati peRussia neUkraine muna Kukadzi.
Kushaikwa kwepombi gasi muEurope kunorevawo kuti bloc yaifanira kutendeukira kune mamwe masimba emagetsi, senge liquefied natural gas (LNG), kuwedzera matura, zvichiita kuti mutengo wayo ukwire zvakapetwa kana kupfuura avhareji yemakore mana apfuura. Europe inogona kudzivirira kudzimwa munguva ino yechando, asi inongokwanisa kuzviita nekupa dzimwe nyika, uye zvinoreva kuti mitengo yeLNG ingangoramba ichikwira kwenguva refu. Nemitengo yemagetsi iyi yakakwira ichitora mari yakawanda pamabhajeti epamba, zvingave zvine hungwaru kudzivirira kudyara muEuropean consumer discretionary stocks kwechinguva. Ngatifungei zvirinani kuisa mari muEuropean gasi vanogadzira senge Equinor, Royal Dutch Shell o BP.
Isu tinogona zvakare kuita mari yedu mumasheya mumakambani anobatsirwa kubva kune yakasimba kudiwa kweLNG, senge Chesapeake, Nhoroondo ye EQT Corp, Antero Zviwanikwa, Golar LNG o Cheniere Energy.
2: Chikamu cheindasitiri cheEuropean chinobata zvakanyanya. 🏗️
Kuyerwa kwegasi kunonzwika kunyangara uye pamwe ndiko, kunyanya kumaindasitiri anoshandisa simba zvakanyanya semakemikari, mota, mapepa nesimbi. Mune girafu rinotevera unogona kuona kushandiswa kwegasi nechikamu cheindasitiri chega chega zvine chekuita nekupa kwayo kumabasa ehupfumi muGermany.
Aya zvikamu akatoona kukura kunoshamisa mukushandisa kwavo nekuda kwekukwira kwemitengo yemagetsi, asi zvinogona kutora zvakatonyanya kurova kune yavo yepasi mitsetse kana chiyero ichivamanikidza kudzikisa kugadzirwa. Izvi zvinozokonzera kudzikira kwemubairo, sezvo mari dzakatarwa dzinoramba dzakafanana, asi dzichipararira pamusoro pezvinhu zvishoma zvinogadzirwa. Uyezve, munyaya yemabhizimisi anokwikwidzana pamutengo wepasi rose (makemikari, mapepa uye simbi) kuwedzera kwemutengo pachikamu chimwe chete kuchaita kuti mari muzvikamu zvemabhizimisi aya eEurope isanyanya kukwikwidzana kana ichienzaniswa nevaya vekuAsia neAmerica.
Nokudaro, zvingava zvakanakisisa kudzivisa vagadziri veEurope vemakemikari, mapepa nesimbi. Zvirinani kuzviisa pachedu paAmerican makemikari vanogadzira senge Dow, lyondellbasell y Huntsman. Neizvi isu tingangobatsirwa nekukura kwemitengo yemakemikari sezvo kupihwa kweEurope kunokanganisa. Zano rakanaka rinenge riri rekuzvimisa pachedu pfupi mumasheya evagadziri vemakemikari eEurope uye kureba mumatokisi evagadziri vemakemikari ekuAmerica.
3: Kuderera kwehupfumi muEurope kwava kusvika.📉
Kuderera kwesimba rekutenga kwevatengi, kukwira kwemitengo yezvikamu zveindasitiri uye njodzi dzekudzikira kwekugadzira kunongedza kudzikira kwehupfumi uye kukwira kwemitengo muEurope. The economists of abrdn Vanoti kuderera kwehupfumi kuEurope kungangoitika gore rino. Vanofungidzira kuti kukura kuchatambura kudonha kwe1,5%, asi kuti kukanganisa kuchava kukuru, 4,5% kana Russia ikakanganisa zvachose kuyerera kwegasi. Uye vanofungidzira kuti kuwedzera kwemitengo yegasi kuchawedzera kumanikidza kukwira kwemitengo gore rino, uye zvimwe zvakawanda zvinotevera.
Dambudziko remagetsi rinogona kuparadza tarisiro yekukura kweEU. Kunobva: Bloomberg.
Kuderera kwehupfumi muEurope kwaisazove kwakanaka pakudyara muEuropean stocks, saka zvingave nani kutsvaga midziyo muUnited States. Nekudaro, kana isu tichida chaizvo kuratidzwa kuEurope, mikana yakachengeteka iri mune mamwe maindasitiri ekudzivirira akadai semishonga uye chikafu nechinwiwa, uko kudiwa uye kugadzirwa kwaizove kwakasarudzika kunyangwe pakaitika kudzima.
4: Euro inopera simba, uye inoramba isina simba.💱
Mugore rose ra2022 euro yakadzikira zvakanyanya padhora, uye ingangoramba ichitambura. Ehezve, European Central Bank (ECB) yatanga kukwidza mitengo yemubereko uye inogona kuramba ichiisimudza. (Matengo akakwira anowanzo batsira mari yenyika nekuwedzera kudiwa kwevanodyara mari.)
Nekudaro, iyo ECB yakanonoka kukwidza mitengo uye ishoma mune yakawanda sei inogona kusimudza, zvichienderana nekuti hupfumi hunopindura sei. Iyo ECB inobatwa pakati pedombo nenzvimbo yakaoma. Parizvino inofanirwa kuita kuti inflation irambe iri pamusoro peavhareji yedunhu uye kudzivirira kuderera kwehupfumi kwakasimba. Kuderera kwehupfumi kunganetesa euro zvakanyanya, zvichiwedzera kukwira kwemitengo kwatinosangana nako muEurope nekukwidza mutengo wekutengesa kune vatengi nemabhizinesi.
5: Permanent demand damage inoitika.🤕
Iyo nguva yakareba kushomeka kwegasi, ndiko kukura kwenjodzi yekuparara kwechigarire chinodiwa sezvo vatengi nemaindasitiri vachijairana nemhoteredzo ine mitengo yepamusoro yechikamu chesimba. Zvakare, kupera kwekutsamira kweEurope pagasi reRussia kuchakonzera kukwira kwemitengo yegasi mubloc yese, kuderedza kukwikwidza kweEurope muchikamu chekugadzira uye kuderedza kufarira kwevanodyara mari.
Uye panguva imwecheteyo, isu taigona kuona bhizinesi idzva rekudyara uye kugadzira kuchinja kumatunhu ane yakaderera mutengo wesimba. Semuenzaniso, mabhizinesi matsva ekudyara muzvikamu zvepetrochemical anogona kutevera kutungamira kwekunatsa kweEurope nekuenda kunzvimbo dzine mari dzakaita seUnited States, uko maindasitiri anobatsirwa nemitengo yakaderera gasi.