Munhoroondo yevanhu hatina kumboona shanduko dzakawanda kudaro munguva pfupi. Kubva pakatanga makore gumi aya takatosangana nedenda, the Runaway inflation kukura, one dambudziko remagetsi uye hondo. Zviitiko izvi zvakashandura zvachose mafambiro emangwana emisika yekudyara mari. The Strategists ve Goldman Sachs Vakatota panyaya iyi uye vataura kuti isu tiri mushanduko muzvikamu zvakakunda zvemakore gumi aya, nevakunda vakawanda asi vaine zvikomborero zvishoma. Ngationei kuti ndezvipi zvakamisikidzwa semafambisirwo ekudyara kwemari yemakore gumi ano...
Chii chakafambisa pundutso mumakore gumi apfuura?🔍
Kudzoka kwemakore gumi apfuura kwaiva pakati pezvakanakisisa munhoroondo. Nenguva yekukura kwehupfumi mushure mekukanganiswa kwedambudziko ra2008, mari yekudyara mumasheya muchikamu chehunyanzvi (iyo FAANG kunyanya) yakatungamira kudzoka kwemakore gumi apfuura. Uku kusanganiswa kwezviito kwakabudirira nekuda kwezvinhu zvitanhatu zvakakosha:
Lower inflation.📉
Mushure mekutambudzika kukuru kwedambudziko ra2008, kwakauya nguva yekubudirira kwehupfumi. Kukura kwechigadzirwa, kudyidzana kwepasi rose uye kufambira mberi kwetekinoroji kwakawedzera zvikuru kuwanikwa kwekupa, zvichikonzera kudzikira kweinflation uye nekudaro mitengo muzhinji.
Kuvandudzwa kweinflation munguva ye2010. Source: Inflation Data.
Mibereko yakaderera.➗
Mushure mekudonha kukuru kwemhindu kuderedza dambudziko rezvemari repasi rose uye kuderera kwekukwira kwemitengo, vakachengeta mubereko wakaderera kwenguva yakareba, izvo zvakakurudzira zvakare kudyara mumasheya eUS.
Mari dzemubereko dzeUS kwemakore makumi maviri apfuura. Kunobva: Federal Reserve System.
Kudzorwa kushoma.👨🏻⚖️
Mushure mekuziva zvakajeka izvo zvinokonzeresa dambudziko rekare, shanduko yekugovera uye kuderera kwemitengo yemubereko yakagadzira nzvimbo yakanaka yekukura kwemakambani uye nekudaro yekudyara mumasheya muzvikamu zvakawanda.
Ngozi dzakaderera dzezvematongerwo enyika.🕊️
Padanho repasi rose, njodzi dzezvematongerwo enyika mukati memakore gumi apfuura dzaive shoma. Pashure pekurwisana muIraq neAfghanistan pamwe chete nokuparara kweSoviet Union, kurwisana kwenyika kwakaderera. Mamiriro ezvinhu aya akabatsira kuti pave nemamiriro akanaka ekusimudzira hupfumi hwenyika mumatunhu akasiyana pasi rose, zvikuru ari kusimukira.
Mafambiro epasi rose mukurwisana kwezvombo kubva 1946 kusvika 2019. Source: Systemic Runyararo.
Globalization.🌐
Panguva iyo kushandira pamwe kwaive kwakakosha mukugadzirisa hupfumi hwenyika, kutengeserana kwenyika kwakakura zvakanyanya. Izvi zvakabatsira kukurudzira kutengwa kwemari uye kuderedza mari kumakambani sezvo vaikwanisa kuendesa zvivakwa zvavo kunyika dzine mabasa akachipa.
Digitization.👨💻
Kupinda mumakore gumi aya kwakaunzawo shanduko huru kwazvo yeruzivo rwemichina kuvanhu. Zvishandiso zvemaSmartphone uye vanhu zvakawedzera kubatana, nekuda kwemachipisi uye simba rekombuta, ndosaka kuisa mari mumasheya eFAANG kwakabatsira mumakore gumi apfuura.
Zvikamu zvakasiyana zvakafambisa digitalization mukati memakore gumi apfuura. Kwakabva: Digital Shanduko Mishumo.
Ndezvipi zvinhu zvichafambisa kudzoka kwemasheya mumakore gumi anotevera?🤷♂️
Nekuuya kwe2020s takatoona kuti zviitiko zvakakura-zvikuru zvaiuya. Mumakore maviri chete takaona shanduko dzakangoerekana dzachinja muhupenyu hwedu hwezuva nezuva, kushandura zvachose zvinhu zvekutevera kwemakore gumi aya:
Kukura kwe inflation.🎈
Kuwedzera kwemitengo kwave kuchifambiswa-kufambiswa, pakutanga nekuda kwenyaya dzekutengesa dzakakonzerwa nedenda. Uye mazhinji ematambudziko aya ari kunyangarika, asi kumwe kumanikidzwa kwemitengo kungangoenderera nekufamba kwenguva. Europe yakatarisana nekukwira kukuru kwemitengo yemagetsi uye iri kuparadzira zvishoma nezvishoma inflation kune dzimwe nyika nekudaro mitengo yekudyara kwemasheya.
Inflation yakakwira zvakanyanya mukutanga kwemakore gumi aya. Kunobva: NXTmine.
Mibereko yakakwira.🌡️
Matanho ekudzikisa mhedzisiro yedenda akatanga kushanda munguva pfupi. Nhasi mhedzisiro yaonekwa mushure mekurarama nemitengo pamakumi emakore ekuderera uye abysmal quantitative expansions (QE). Mabhanga makuru ehupfumi hwenyika akatotanga kuhusimudza, uye angatofanira kuita izvi zvakanyanya, kuedza kuderedza inflation.
Forecast kuvandudzwa kwemhindu kusvika 2024. Kwakabva: Bloomberg.
Ngozi dzakakura dzezvematongerwo enyika.⚔️
Kunyange zvazvo tichiziva kuti pashure pokunge dutu radzikama, muchiitiko ichi zvinhu zvakachinjwa. Mushure mekudzikama kwemakore gumi apfuura, kunetsana kwezvematongerwo enyika kwakabuda zvakare munzvimbo dzakasiyana dzepasi. Izvi zvakatokura zvakanyanya zvichitevera gakava reIran neUS pakutanga kwemakore gumi, kupinda kweRussia muUkraine uye nekusawirirana kuri kuwedzera pakati peChina neTaiwan.
Global Peace Index yegore 2021. Kwakabva: Impakter.
More regulation. 🥵
Nekuwedzera kwekurasikirwa kwekukura mumatunhu makuru akasiyana epasi, hurumende dzakatanga kuisa mitero mitsva isingatarisirwi inowira zvakananga pakudyara mumasheya muzvikamu zvikuru. Nenzira iyi, tinogona kunzwisisa kuti kuedza kuderedza mhedzisiro yekuderera kwehupfumi, makambani makuru achatambura nekuwedzera mutero uye, nekudaro, purofiti yavo.
Maonerwo ekukura nedunhu. Kunobva: IMF.
Kugovera patsva kwekugadzirwa.🏗️
Supply cheni nyaya dzakakonzerwa nedenda uye kusawirirana kwe geopolitical kwakapa nzira kune imwe nzira yekuenda kure. Makambani ari kugadzira zvakare padyo nenzvimbo dzawo dzekugovera, padyo nepanodiwa. Izvi zvave kutoitika muindasitiri yesemiconductor, uko kuri kuwedzera kusawirirana pakati peChina neTaiwan kwaita kuti makambani mazhinji adzokere kumusha.
Izvi zvinorevei pakuisa mari mumastock?😮
Nzvimbo itsva inofanirwa kuchinja zvinhu zvakawanda, kunyanya nzira yekudyara. Idzi dzese nhau dzakanaka kune vanhu vanofarira kuita tsvakiridzo padiki pakusarudza kwekudyara uye vanovimba nekuongorora kwakakosha. Imwe yehunhu hwekudyara mumakore gumi apfuura yaive sarudzo yechinhu chinokunda (sekukura) kana chikamu (senge tekinoroji). Zvaiita sezvine basa zvakanyanya kupfuura makambani ega ega akasarudzwa. Kuisa mari muhunyanzvi uye kukura kwemasheya kwakaunza mhedzisiro yepamusoro zvisinei nepurofiti yavo, ukuwo kudyara mumasheya akakosha kwakaburitsa mhedzisiro yakaderera zvisinei nemhando kana kukwikwidza chinzvimbo chekambani yavo.
Kudzoka kwakazara pakudyara mumutengo wemasheya maringe nekukura. Kunobva: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Pasina kutsigirwa kwemitengo yakaderera, kusarudzwa kwemari kuchava kwakakosha kuunza kudzoka kwemusika. Kubatsira kwega kwega kwemakambani kwatinosarudza kuisa mari ndiko kuchave chinhu chakakosha, kwete purofiti yechikamu chavo zvachose. Naizvozvo, isu tingangoda kutanga takatarisana nekuongorora makambani ane akasimba emakwikwi mabhenefiti uye yakasimba purofiti chizvarwa.
Isu totora sei mukana weiyo situation? 🧐
Tingangoda kutanga kunyatsosiyanisa mapotfolio edu. Vakahwina vemakore gumi apfuura vaive avo vaivimba zvakanyanya neUS uye tekinoroji stocks kuti vaunze purofiti. Munguva ino nyowani, akakura akasiyana siyana ezvikamu anogona kutipa mhedzisiro iri nani kwatiri, uye tekinoroji FAANG stocks inogona kutsiviwa nyore ne. FAANG 2.0 zvatakakuratidza mavhiki mashoma apfuura. Isu tinonyatsoziva kuti chikamu chesimba chichava mumwe wevachabatsirika zvikuru mumakore gumi anotevera ...