Trend inotevera yanga iri imwe yehedge funds' inonyatsoita masheya ekudyara mari gore rino. Iye SG Trend Index yakakwira 29,6%, nepo S&P 500 index yadonha 19%. Ava vateveri-vanotevera vatengesi vakawana kudzoka uku nekutarisa pazviratidzo zvemitengo, kutsvaga kukurumidza, uye kurangarira chirevo chekare chekusapikisa Federal Reserve. Ngationei kuti iyi stock investment strategy inogadzirwa sei...
Ndeipi maitiro anotevera strategy?
Trend inotevera inovavarira kutora mukana wenguva refu, yepakati kana pfupi-yenguva pfupi mumisika yemari. Hazvisi zvekufanotaura mafambiro aya, asi nezvekutora mukana iwo pazvinoitika. Ndiko kuti, tsvaga mashandisirwo makuru uye shanduko dzine zvikumbiro uye kuunza mabhenefiti kubva kwavari. Maitiro anotevera zano anoshanda nekutenga zvakakwirira nekutengesa zvakakwirira, kana kutengesa zvipfupi uye kubuda zvipfupi pane imwe nhanho yakaderera. Isu tinokwanisa kuita maitiro anotevera zano tichishandisa iyo kufamba maavhareji 100 uye 200 nguva misika yaunotevera. Kunyanya kutora mukana wavo kutsanangura yedu yekupinda uye yekubuda mapoinzi, kiyi ichave yekutevera mutengo weasset uye kurega purofiti ichimhanya. Semuenzaniso, ngationei kuti ingave yakashanda sei mumakore achangopfuura kana tikaisa mari mu Nasdaq 100. Kana iyo 100-nguva yekufamba avhareji (yero mutsetse) uye mazana maviri-nguva inofamba avhareji (pink line) yakayambuka muna Chivabvu 200, yedu yekutevera nzira yaizotiudza kutenga, kunyanya tekinoroji stocks. Isu tinofungidzira kuvharwa kwekushanda kweKubvumbi 2019 wegore rino, apo mutsara we6-nguva yekufamba pakati wakayambuka 100-nguva yekufamba avhareji. Panguva iyoyo, zano redu raizoratidza shanduko yezvinzvimbo, kubva pakutenga kuenda pakutengesa.
Nasdaq 100-zuva rinofamba mavhareji. Kunobva: Tradingview.
Ko Federal Reserve yakapesvedzera sei zvese izvi?
Gore rino, iyo Federal Reserve yakafambisa maitiro munenge mumisika yese. Izvi zvinosanganisira kupera simba kwekudyara mumasheya, kukura kwekudzoka kwe mabhonasi nekusimbiswa kwe Dhora rekuUS. Sezvo dambudziko rezvemari repasi rose ra2008-09, mutemo mumisika waiva "usarwisa Fed." Mabhanga eCentral, kusanganisira Fed, akange adzikisa mitengo yemubereko kusvika pedyo ne zero uye akapa mvumo yekutenga mabhondi zvirongwa. Nenzira iyi vaiwanzopa chinzvimbo chaikurudzira kudyara mumasheya, zvichiita kuti hupfumi hushande zvakare. Pane zvinhu zviviri zvakakosha zvezviitiko izvi:
Runaway inflation
Asi nguva pfupi yadarika, inflation yasvika pamazinga asati aonekwa mumakore anopfuura makumi mana, uye Federal Reserve yakamanikidzwa kushandura chimiro chayo, ichisiya maitiro ayo ekare ekubvumidza pahupfumi. Chinangwa chayo ndechekudzorera inflation, iyo yakasvika kusvika pa40% munaJune, kusvika kune 9,1% chinangwa, kunyange kana izvi zvichikanganisa hupfumi. Svondo rapfuura, mitengo yakasimudzwa zvakare ne 2 muzana mapoinzi neFederal Reserve, nevamwe vachitevera.
Inflation nhoroondo muU.S. Source: Inflation.eu.
Chibereko chinowedzera
Ikozvino kune imwe nzira yakasimba yekudyara mumasheya, mwedzi mitanhatu Treasuries iri kudzoka ingangoita 4%. Izvi zvinodaro nekuti mitengo inobhadharwa pamadhipoziti emari inokwira zvinoenderana nedanho rekukwira kwakarongwa neFederal Reserve. Svondo rapfuura, bhiriyoniya hedge fund maneja Ray Dalio Akataura kuti nemitengo ye4,5%, mitengo yekudyara mari inogona kudonha ne20%…
Kufanotaura kwemitengo yemitengo yemakore maviri anotevera. Kunobva: Bloomberg.
Kune rimwe divi, Goldman Sachs yakaburitsa mushumo umo yaifungidzira kuti, kana kuomeswa kweFed kuchikonzera kudzikira muUS, iyo S&P 500 inogona kudonha imwe 27%. Kunyange zvazvo inflation ndiyo inonyanya kunetseka neFed uye iri kuwedzera, shoko rokuti "kusarwa neFed" ikozvino rinoratidza nzira yakasiyana zvikuru; Gara kure nemasheya uye bond investment markets.
Pane mukana wekudyara mumasheya here?
Sezvo mhindu uye kutya kuderera kwehupfumi huchikwira, isu tanga tatofunga nezve kuzadzazve yedu yekudyara portfolio nemasheya muzvikamu zvinodzivirira zvemusika, zvakaita sezvehutano kana zvekushandisa. Mushure mezvose, ivo vangangove vakanyanya kuvharirwa kubva mukuderera kwehupfumi. Ehe, kudzikira kwemari muUS kunogona kukonzera kuti masheya mazhinji ekudyara mari adzikire. Tinogona kufunga kugovera chikamu che stock investment portfolio yedu kune inoteedzera nzira dzinotevera. Izvi zvinotitendera kuti tiise mari mune yazvino nzira yemusika uye kwete kutambura zvipingamupinyi. Asi pane kuedza kufanotaura zvichazoitwa neFed zvinotevera, zvingangove zviri nani kushandisa maitiro akareruka ekutevera mazano ane mavhareji ekufamba. Parizvino, pane mashoma ETF atinogona kutevera…
Rondedzero yeakanakisa ETFs kutevera
- ProShares Pfupi 20+ Year Treasury (TBF): Inotipa kudzoka kwakatarisana nekudzoka kwezuva nezuva kwe index ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bonds. Tarisiro yemitengo yepamusoro inogona kusundidzira ETF iyi kumusoro.
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Simply Interest Rate Hedge ETF (PFIX): Inowedzera kushanduka uye ine ngozi, asi inotipa ruzhowa pakurwisana nekuwedzera kwakasimba kwemhindu yenguva refu.
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ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF (SH): Inotipa iyo inopesana nepurofiti yeS&P 500. Ndiko kuti, kana iyo S&P 500 isingapi mhedzisiro yakanaka, iyi inoita.
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ProShares Short QQQ (QSP): Iyi ETF inotipa yakatarisana nekudzoka kuNasdaq-100. Iwo maviri anti-indices ETF anogona kutarisirwa kuunza kudzoka kwakanaka kana kutya kwekuderera kweUS kukwira.
- WisdomTree Yakareba USD Pfupi GBP (GBUS):Ndi a ETC (Exchange Traded Certificate) inoteedzera zvinzvimbo zvakareba mudhora reUS zvichipesana nepondo sterling. Mamiriro ezvinhu muUK anoramba asina chokwadi, zvichiratidza kwatiri kuti dhora reUS richaramba richiwana pondo. Kunyangwe kana tarisiro yekuwedzera mubereko ichikwira muUnited States ichidonha, nhanho yavo yekuwedzera inoenderera mberi.