Zvakajairika kuti vatengi vari muChinese real estate sector vabhadhare pamberi pechivakwa chisati chavakwa, uye maitiro akashanda zvakanaka munguva yakapfuura. Asi matanho akasimba eHurumende achangobva kuitika mu mari muChinese real estate stocks Vakamisa kuvaka munyika yose. Izvi zvapa kuti vanotenga dzimba varambe kubhadhara mari dzemba kusvika vaona kufamba zvakare. Uye izvo zvinogona kupedzisira zvakonzera musoro kune ese maChinese stock investing…
Sei kurova uku kune njodzi?💥
Vachakuvadza injini huru yehupfumi hweChinese🏗️
Investment muChinese real estate stocks (kubva pakuvaka zvivakwa kusvika real estate services) inofungidzirwa kuti inodarika chikamu chimwe muzvina chehupfumi hweChina. Uye maererano Pantheon Macroeconomics, pakati pe30 ne40% yezvikwereti zvebhangi zvinoratidzwa kune real estate sector. Zvakare kutengeswa kwenyika, iyo inomiririra pakati pe30 ne40% yemari yehurumende yenzvimbo. Saka chero chinhu chinovhiringa mari muChinese real estate stocks zvichakanganisa zvakanyanya hupfumi hwenyika.
Investment muChinese real estate stocks yave kuderera kweanopfuura gore. Kunobva: China National Bureau of Statistics.
Vachakuvadza imwe injini huru yehupfumi hweChinese🏛️
Investment mumabhanga chikamu chemasheya ndiyo inotevera yakakura kurasikirwa mune iyi saga. Inofungidzirwa kuti 1,7 trillion yuan (inenge madhora mazana maviri nemakumi mashanu emadhora) emari yembavha pamabhuku ayo inogona kukanganiswa neboycotts. Tichiswedera pedyo zvishoma, China Construction Bank Corp.'s (rimwe remabhanga makuru pasi rose) inotora chikamu chinodarika makumi maviri kubva muzana. musvondo rapfuura, paine mukana wekuti kudonha kuve kwakanyanya kana vakomana vacho vakawana simba.
Zvinopfuura makumi manomwe muzana ehupfumi hwemhuri hweChinese hwakabatana nekudyara muchikamu chezvivakwa. Izvi zvinoreva kuti kudonha kwakanyanya kwemitengo yezvivakwa kunogona kukanganisa zvakanyanya kushandiswa kwevatengi. Kudonha kunogona kuitika mukuvimba kwevatengi panguva iyo kukura kwepasirese kuri kuderera uye inflation inoratidza kuti hapana chiratidzo chekuderera chinogona kuperetera dambudziko guru kuhupfumi hweChina.
Ichakuvadza investment muChinese stocks📉
Kuisa mari muzvitoro zveChinese kwaitaridza kutaridzika zvakanyanya kupfuura humwe hupfumi hukuru mumakore maviri apfuura. Izvi zvinodaro nekuti hupfumi hwenyika hwakura zvakanyanya uye hahuna kutarisana nekukwira kwemitengo kwakanyanyisa. Nekuda kweizvozvo, vatengesi veUS neEMEA vakadira mari yakawanda muChinese equity ETFs kupfuura chero nguva mumakore gumi apfuura.
Monthly flow in Chinese equity ETFs. Kunobva: Blackrock
Asi kana kubhomba kwacho kuchikanganisa hupfumi hwakakura uye vanoisa mari vakafunga kusiya musika wemasheya, kudyara kwedu mumasheya eChinese kunogona kunyura.
Ichakuvadza investor chivimbo😠
Mazhinji emajunk bond eChina anopihwa nevanogadzira zvivakwa, uye vanoisa mari vanga vachizvitengesa muzhinji. Izvi zvave kureva kuti purofiti yavo yakwira kusvika pa26%, izvo zviri kuita kuti makambani anotengesa zvivakwa awedzere kudhurira nekuwana mari yavanoda kuti varambe vachishanda. Aya maboycotts anongoita kuti vatengesi vavimbe navo zvishoma, izvo zvinogona kuita kuti pundutso uye kuoma kwekubhadhara mari kuwedzere.
Kubatsira kwema bond ekuChina gore riri pamberi. Kunobva: Kutengeserana Economics
Hazvisi zvejunk bond chete: Vanoisa mari vari kutengesa mabhondi emakambani ekuvaka-giredhi ekuvaka, zvichiita kuti zvivaomere kuwana mari uye kuwedzera matambudziko avo emari. Izvi zvinoita kuti kudyara mumasheya muchikamu ichi uye, nekuwedzera, hupfumi hweChinese huve nenjodzi.
Ndovhunduka here?😱
Kwete izvozvi. Muchokwadi, pane zvimwe zvikonzero zvekuve netarisiro: (i) Hurumende yeChina ine kurudziro yekuita nekukurumidza. VaXi Jinping vari kutarisirwa kugashira kechitatu musimba, zvichireva kuti hurumende yavo ichaita zvese zvainogona kudzivirira vakomana kuti vasaparadze zvakanyanya. Uye une zvakawanda zvaungasarudza kuita kudaro. Kubva pakubvumira vatengi vedzimba kunonoka kubhadhara zvikwereti zvavo kusvika kukubvumira hurumende dzenzvimbo kutenga mapurojekiti kubva kuvagadziri. Chero mhinduro inosarudzwa, China yepamusoro-pasi yekuraira hupfumi inobvumira sarudzo kuitwa uye kuitwa nekukurumidza.
Kudyara muzvitoro zvezvivakwa kwafumura hupfumi hweChinese mukudonha uku. Kunobva: Bloomberg Maonero
(ii) Vatengi veChinese vanoita kunge vari kuita zvakanaka. Kunyange hazvo chikwereti chemumba cheChinese sechikamu chehupfumi hwenyika chakasvika 62% muna 2021, chichiri chakaderera pane 78% uye 86% yeUnited States neUnited Kingdom, zvichiteerana. Saka kunyangwe zvibhakera izvi zvingangokanganisa mashandisirwo emari, kudyara mari muChinese real estate stocks kuri pachinzvimbo chakasimba chinofanira kushandira hupfumi.
Chikwereti cheruzhinji cheChina chave kukura zvishoma nezvishoma gore negore. Kunobva: Bloomberg
(iii) Hazvigoneki kuti iyi ichava mamiriro akafanana neaya eCrash ya 2008. Kana dambudziko racho rikawedzera, zvingangogumira kunyika pachayo. Mushure mezvose, zvikwereti zvemabhanga eChinese kune vanogadzira zvivakwa zvepanzvimbo hazvisi zvekutengesa kana kuchengetedzwa seizvo zvemabhanga eAmerica muna 2008. Uyezve, kutarisisa kwakasimba kwehurumende kwakaita kuti mutengi wekunze atore chikamu mukudyara kweChinese real estate stocks akaderedzwa.
Tinogona sei kuchengetedza mari yedu mumasheya?🛡️
Hazvina chokwadi kuti kurambana uku kuchaguma kwakanganisa kukura kwehupfumi hweChina zvakanyanya, asi hapana chokwadi chekuti hazvidaro. Saka zvakanakisa kugara kure nekudyara mumasheya zvakanyanya kuratidzwa kuhupfumi hweChinese. Makambani eumbozha nevagadziri vemotokari vanounza chikamu chakakura chemari yavo munyika.Tinogonawo kunyanya kusarudza nezvekushandisa kwedu zvinhu zvinogadzirwa. Zvinhu zvinogara zvichionekwa seruzhowa rwakanaka pakurwisa inflation, asi kudzikira kwechikamu chekuvaka cheChina kunogona kudzima kupenya kwezvinhu zvakaita sesimbi nesimbi nemhangura. Zvakadaro, simbi dzinokosha segoridhe nesirivha dzinofanira kuramba dzakamira.
Nyika dzinotengesa zvinhu kunze dzakaita seAustralia, Brazil, Argentina neSouth Africa dzingangoona kupera simba mumari yadzo kana kusimukira kwehupfumi hweChina kukatanga kudzikira. Hupfumi hwekuAsia hwakaita seJapan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore neVietnam hunoenderanawo nehupfumi hweChina, uye misika yavo yemasheya ingangotadza kuita zvakanaka iyo yeUnited States neWestern Europe.