Tingadzidze here kuda mari inovengwa zvakanyanya munyika?

Nekukwira kwemitengo pamazinga akapedzisira kuonekwa muma1970 uye Federal Reserve kutanga imwe yehasha dzayo dzekufamba-famba, hazvishamisi kuti kuisa mari yezvisungo ndiyo inovengwa zvikuru munyika yose. Asi kana isu tichiona kuti munhu wese ari kuratidza mabhebhi manzwiro pane imwe pfuma, isu tiri kutarisa inonakidza contrarian investment. Uye ndizvo zvazviri.

Sei mari yemabond yadonha?🍃

Inflation yanga isati yakwira kubva kuma1970s, uye yakamanikidza Federal Reserve (Fed) kuti ikwidze mitengo yemubereko nekukurumidza kupfuura zvaitarisirwa nevanodyara mari. Kukwira kwemhindu kuri kukwira nekukwira kwemitengo kwakaipa kumabhondi semari yekudyara: kukwira kwemitengo kwakakwira kunoderedza simba rekutenga remabhondi ekuyerera kwemari, ukuwo mitengo yakakwira ichimanikidza mabhondi aripo kuti atengeserwe nemari isingasviki mabhondi matsva anopa goho repamusoro. Izvo zvakashata kune ese mabhondi, asi kunyanya-refu-refu U.S. Treasuries, ayo anonyanya kutarisisa shanduko mumari yemubereko uye inflation pane yenguva pfupi.

Sei tisingaterere vanotuka?🙉

Kana munhu wese ari kunzwa kuderera nezve imwe mari, uye kana icho "chimwe chinhu" chatorasikirwa nerekodhi mari, isu tinofanirwa kuzvibvunza kana ivo vakarurama kuve vasina kunaka. Nekuti, neimwe nzira inopesana, midziyo haina njodzi zvakanyanya kana ikasangana nekurasikirwa kwayo kukuru pane iyo yave ichikwira zvakadzikama kwemakore. Uye sezvo kutenga masheya yaive pfungwa iri nani muna 2009 kupfuura muna 2008, kutenga mabhondi ipfungwa iri nani nhasi pane zvayaive gore kana maviri apfuura, apo mhindu yakanga ichiri yakaderera uye ichidonha. Pachine mukana wakanaka wekuti mhindu uye kunyange inflation ichakwira. Uye kana izvo zvikaitika, hongu, isu hatigone kuita chero mari yekutenga zvisungo, kunyangwe pamatanho aya. Asi kubudirira kwekudyara kune zvakawanda zvekuita neasymmetries munjodzi uye mubairo sezvazvinoita nekangani iwe wakarurama. Uye pamatanho azvino, mubairo wengozi wekuwedzera mabhondi kune yedu portfolio inotaridzika zvakanaka.

Sei mubairo wengozi uchitaridzika kuva unonaka kudaro?🤤

Kuwedzera purofiti kuchawedzera bond investment

Ehe hongu, chikonzero chikuru nei mabhondi ari kudonha, kukwira kwemitengo yemubereko, ndicho chikonzero chimwe chete chekuti tingade kuita mari mavari. Kunyange kukwira kwemitengo kuchizokonzera kurasikirwa kukuru kune vanoisa mari mumabhondi aripo, zvinopa vanoisa mari mumabhondi matsva kudzoka kwepamusoro. Kubva pamaonero iwayo, kukwira kwemitengo yemubereko, zviri nani. Nezviyero izvi zvepamusoro, kudiwa kwemabhondi kunofanira kukura zvakare. Mushure mezvose, kana isu tichigona kugadzira 3% pasina njodzi nekuita mari muUS Treasuries, vanoisa mari havazonyanyi kukurudzirwa kuisa muzvinhu zvine njodzi semasheya, kunyanya kana maonero ehupfumi achitaridzika kunetsa.

Musika wema bond waibva kune mashura chaiwo😮

Mitengo yemabhondi yatoratidza kunetsa kuri kuita mari dzemhindu uye inflation. Izvi zviri pachena kubva mukurasikirwa kwerekodhi mumitengo yemabhondi. Uye ikozvino mitengo yakadzikira, chero kushamisika kwakanaka maererano nemitengo yemubereko kana inflation inogona kukonzera mitengo yemabhondi kuti idzoke zvakanyanya. Muchokwadi, ndizvo zvakaitika muna 2019, iyo Fed payakadzokera kumashure pamitengo yayo mushure mekunge zvabuda pachena kuti hupfumi hwaisakwanisa kubata mitengo yakakwira. Nekune rimwe divi, zvingatora nhau dzakaipa kwazvo kuti mitengo iderere zvakanyanya, zvichipihwa kuti iyo asset yatove isingafarirwe sei.

Ngozi yekudzikira ichakurumidza kudarika njodzi yekukwira kwemitengo💥

Musika wakanyanya kutariswa izvozvi inflation, uye iyo Fed inonyanya kukosha ndeyekugadzirisa. Izvo zviri pachena kuti hazvina kunaka kumabhondi. Asi Fed inoshingairira kunonoka kukura kuderedza inflation. Uye nekutonga nenhoroondo, ichapfuura: iyo Federal Reserve yakangokwanisa kuwana "kunyorova kumhara," apo isina kusundira hupfumi mukuderera, pane imwe nguva munhoroondo. Fed Sachigaro Jerome Powell zvechokwadi haaratidzike kunyanyozvivimba panguva ino, nguva pfupi yadarika achiti kumhara "kupfava" kungangoitika. Uye kana iyo Federal Reserve yatarisana nehupfumi hweUS mukuderera, haizove nesarudzo yakawanda: Ichafanirwa kudzikisa mari dzemubereko zvakare.

Saka, tinoshandisa sei mukana uyu wekudyara?❓

Kunyangwe iyo yengozi-mubairo profile isingatitenderi pamusoro pemabhondi, isu tinogona kufunga kuwedzera iwo kune yedu portfolio kuti awane mabhenefiti akasiyana. Kunyange zvivakwa, zvigadzirwa uye masheya zvaizoratidza mabhenefiti akasiyana kana hupfumi huri kuita zvakanaka, vese vanogona kudonha kana ikadonha uye manzwiro achinja. Munzvimbo iyoyo, chete midziyo yakachengeteka senge goridhe neUS Treasuries ndiyo ingangopedza kurasikirwa kwavo. Asi mabhondi anofanira kubatsira kudarika goridhe kana inflation ikadonha pamwe nekukura kwehupfumi. Tingapokana kuti izvi zvinoita kuti US Treasuries ive yakanakisa hedge pamatanho aya. Ose maviri iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) imari yakanaka yakasimba kana tichitsvaga kutenga mabhondi. Homwe iyi ine hanya nekukura kwehupfumi uye inflation, izvo zvinofanirwa kutipa bhangi rakawanda munzvimbo ino. Uye ngatiyeukei kuti isu hatifanirwe kutenga zvese kamwechete: isu tinogona zvishoma nezvishoma kupinda nekufamba kwenguva, sezvo mitengo inodonha, nzira yakanaka yekupfavisa nzvimbo yedu yekupinda.