Muna 2022, inflation yaita chitarisiko, zvese nekuda kwekunetsana muUkraine uye nekuda kwekusaitwa zvakanaka kwemitemo yemari kuporesa kukonzeresa denda. Sekureva kwemuongorori ane mukurumbira wehunyanzvi Larry Williams, inflation yave kuda kudzikira, ndosaka vakurudzira mamiriro ekudzoreredza mastock pakati pazvino kusvika pakupera kwaJune.
Nharo yaWilliams ndeyei? 🤓
(Kana iwe usina kudzidzisa marisioni yemari uye iwe haunzwisise iyo data, usazvinetse, isu takaedza kuve nechokwadi kuti yakatsanangurwa kwazvo: D) Kududzira Williams 'chati-yakavakirwa ongororo, zvinobatsira kunzwisisa matanho maviri ekukwira kwemitengo: 1. Indekisi yemutengo wevatengi (CPI) tefa Inoteedzera mutengo wezvinhu zvinochinja mitengo nekukurumidza: chikafu, zvigadzirwa zvemagetsi, mota uye mutsa. 2. The indekisi yemutengo wevatengi (CPI) base inoteedzera mutengo wezvinhu zvinoshandura mitengo zvishoma nezvishoma: dzidzo uye mabasa ekurapa, semuenzaniso. Parizvino, iyo inochinjika CPI yakakwira, kutaura zvazviri, yakakwira kupfuura zvayanga iri pane ipi zvayo yepamusoro mumakore makumi mashanu apfuura.
Flexible CPI vs Base CPI yemakore makumi mashanu apfuura. Kunobva: Bloomberg.
Asi kana tikabvisa zvokudya uye simba, izvo zvinonyanya kushanduka zvinhu zvakatevedzwa muCPI inoshanduka, tinogona kuona maonero akasiyana. Nhoroondo, iyi CPI inoshanduka yanga iri chiratidzo chakavimbika chekuti base CPI inonanga kupi. Uye zvinoita sekunge isu tine nhau dzakanaka, zvakapihwa kuti musimboti chiyero chekuchinjana mitengo yakakwira gore rapfuura, zvichiratidza kukosha kwekukwira kwemitengo kunofanirwa kutanga kudonha munguva pfupi. Mune mamwe mazwi, isu tinogona kunge takakwira pamusoro pekukwira kwemitengo, inyaya yekuti vatengesi havasati vazviona (uye nehomwe dzedu ...).
12-mwedzi inoshanduka CPI vs. 3-mwedzi pagore. Kunobva: CNBC.
Izvi zvinorevei kumastock? 🚀
Kuti tipindure mubvunzo uyu, ngatitangei tatarisa chimwe chishandiso mukuongorora kwaWilliams: The advance/decline line (muchena), iyo inoteedzera huwandu hwemasheya arikukwira mumutengo maringe nenhamba iri kudzikira zuva rega rega. Iyo inzira inobatsira yekunzwisisa kusimba kana kushaya simba mumusika wemasheya rally kana kudzikira, ndiko kuti, kana mashoma emasheya ari kutyaira indekisi yese kana kuti masheya mazhinji ari kufamba nenzira imwechete. Zvinobatsirawo kuedza kufanotaura kuti masheya achaenda kupi (mublue).
Kufambira mberi uye kudzika mutsara nekukura kufanotaura. Kunobva: CNBC.
Kufembera uku kunoratidza kuti yave nguva yekuti mutsara wepamberi / wekudzikira usimuke, izvo zvinoreva kuti musika wemasheya unogona kugara zhizha rose. Ehe, kufanotaura kwaWilliam kunoratidzawo kuti tichave nekugadziriswa muna Nyamavhuvhu, kuchiteverwa nekudzokororwa pakupera kwezhizha. Ehezve, chidzoreso chemaitiro aWilliams ndechekuti hachitiudze hukuru hwekufamba kungangoita, saka hatizive kuti iyo rebound ichakwira zvakadii.
Tingashandisa sei mukana uyu? 🐸
Kana isu takapfuura peak inflation sezvakataurwa naWilliams, mabhanga epakati anogona kusazopedzisira akwidza mitengo yemubereko nekukurumidza sezvataitarisira tese, izvo zvingave zvakanaka kumusika. Edza kubatanidza iyo Williams mamiriro ekuongorora uye nekuisiyanisa nehunyanzvi hwekuongorora, iyo inoratidza kuti dhizaini inofanira kukwira, uye zvino inogona kunge iri nguva inotapira yekutenga mutengo. Pane nzira mbiri dzatingashandisa nadzo mukana uyu: (i) Yekutanga ndeyekutenga migove zvakananga, kuburikidza neETF, kuti tibatsirwe kubva mukuunganirwa. Tichifunga kuti nguva yekutengeserana kwedu kazhinji iri nyore kuziva kupfuura nguva yemusika pachayo, zvingava kuchenjera kugadzirira Nyamavhuvhu isingachinji, pane kuedza kuronga nguva yekutengesa uye nguva yekutenga zvakare. Iye Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) inoteedzera zviito kutenderera pasirese, saka taigona kuona kuti ari kusimukira sei pasi rose.
Kuvandudzwa kweVanguard Total World Stock ETF mumakore matatu apfuura. Kunobva: Morningstar.
(ii) Chechipiri kuburikidza nekushandiswa kwezvisarudzo: kana tichitenda kuti zvikamu zvichakwira uye tichida kuti zviite mari yakawanda, tinogona kutenga zvingasarudzwa pamusika weETFs nemutengo uri pamusoro pemazinga emazuva ano (izvo zvinotipa zvinopa kodzero yekutenga nemutengo wepamusoro) kunyangwe mitengo ichikwira. Isai sarudzo, iyo inotipa kodzero yekutengesa migove pamutengo wakati, inogona kutidzivirira pachiitiko chekutengesa muna August. Kubatanidza kufona uye kuisa sarudzo nemutengo wakafanana wekurova izano rinozivikanwa se straddle-Inotibvumira kuti tibatsirwe kubva kumusika wemasheya kusagadzikana mune chero nzira. Uye zvechokwadi, isu tinokwanisa kumisikidza akawanda straddles pamatanho emitengo akasiyana uye toagadzirisa zvichienderana nekuti iwo angangoita rally anokura sei.
Tsananguro yehurongwa hurefu hweStraddle.
Asi isu tinofanira kungwarira, sezvo vamwe vanhu vachizopokana kuti kuongororwa kwehunyanzvi kunopa masaini akakosha enguva pfupi yekutengesa, vatsoropodzi varo vanozoti manyepo. Zviuru zvezvidzidzo hazvina kuita zvinogutsa kufambisa tsono neimwe nzira. Zvakadaro, kunyangwe tichivimba nemasaini kana kwete, zvakakosha kuti tirambe takazvitarisa, nekuti vamwe vanoisa mari vanovashandisa kuita sarudzo. Uye kana zvakakwana kwavari kuita, kufanotaura kwekuongorora kwehunyanzvi kunogona kuzadzikiswa.