Ehe, zvinoita sekunge varidzi vemari vachangobva kubheja kuti inflation yakakwira, zvichireva kuti Federal Reserve inogona kukurumidza kuderedza kukwira kwemitengo. Chiyero chinosimudzira hupfumi uye yakakwirira njodzi midziyo, sekudyara mumasheya. Asi aya anogona kunge ari maonero ane tariro. Kunyangwe paine zviratidzo zvekuti inflation iri kudzikira, mamwe masigns anoratidza kuti tichazotarisana nazvo kwekanguva...
Ndezvipi zviratidzo zvekuti inflation iri kudzikira?🌠
Hupfumi hwave kutotonhora kwemavhiki. Muenzaniso GDPNow Iyo Atlanta Federal Reserve inofungidzira kuti hupfumi hweUS hwakabata 1,6% mukati mechikamu chechipiri. Mashoko aya anoratidza kuti hupfumi hunogona kunge hwatoderera. Musika webasa unoramba wakasimba, asi kazhinji ndiyo domino yekupedzisira kudonha. Saka, kana hupfumi hwave kutotonhora, zvinoreva kuti kudiwa kuri kutoderera uye inflation inofanira kutanga kudzikama munguva pfupi.
Atlanta Fed CPI yekukura fungidziro. Kunobva: AtlantaFed
Nekuzodaro, kuvhiringwa kwe supply chain kuri kudzikira. Nyanzvi zhinji dzezvehupfumi dzinopokana kuti inflation yakanyanya kukonzerwa nekuvhiringika kwakadaro panguva iyo denda rakanga richichinja kudiwa kwevatengi kubva kumabasa kuenda kuzvinhu. Ikozvino kufarira mukudyara kwemasheya kuri kudzokera kumasevhisi. Pane zviratidzo zvekuti madhiri ekupa ari kureruka zvakare. Naizvozvo, kana kuwanikwa kuchikwanisa kuzadzisa zvinodiwa, inflation inofanira kuderera. Mitengo yezvokudya nemagetsi yakabatsira zvakanyanya mukukura kwekukwira kwemitengo, kunyanya kubva zvakatanga kubva pazvitsigiro zvakaderera mushure mekukanganisa kukuru kwakakonzerwa nedenda. Asi iye zvino mitengo yave yakakwira kwenguva yakati, gore-pa-gore shanduko yemitengo ingangove idiki mune ramangwana, uye inogona kunge isina kunaka kana mitengo yezvinhu ikaramba ichidzikira.
Pamusoro pezvo, vatengesi vanogona kushandisa zvinyorwa zvavo zvakawandisa kubatsira kuderedza inflation. Vane matani ezvigadzirwa zvekubvisa, uye vanogona kuita zvese zvavanogona (sekudzikisa mitengo kana kudzosera mari pasina kubvuma zvigadzirwa kudzoserwa) kudzikisa stock yavo. Uye kushanduka kudiki sei mukudiwa padanho rekutengesa kunogona kutungamirira kune zvishoma nezvishoma shanduko huru pamwe chete neketani yekugovera (iyo «whip effect«), inflation inogona kuderera.
Mhando dzakasiyana dze whip effect. Kunobva: Beetrack
Uye vatengesi vanotarisira kuti inflation ichadonha. Zvinotarisirwa zvakakosha zvikuru pakukwira kwemitengo. Vanhu pavanofunga kuti mitengo ichakwira mangwana, vachada mihoro yakakwira nhasi voedza kutenga zvakawanda sezvavanogona mitengo isati yakwira. Izvi zvinhu zvinosundidzira mubhadharo uye mitengo yezvigadzirwa kumusoro, izvo zvinokuvadza kutenderera. Neraki, data razvino rinoratidza kuti vatengesi havatarisire inflation kukura zvakanyanya mumakore mashanu anotevera sezvaitarisirwa masvondo mashoma apfuura. Izvi zvinogona kunonoka kana kumisa inflation cycle.
Ndeapi matambudziko atingawana pakudyara mumasheya?🌌
Sezvataona, pane zvikonzero zvakasimba nei kukwira kwemitengo kuchifanira kubuda nesimba. Asi, zvinosuruvarisa, hazvisi zvose. Dzvinyiriro inoitwa nokukwira kwemitengo yave ichikura, uye nhau inotiratidza kuti inflation ine tsika yokunamatira. Uyezve, kune mamwe makadhi emusango anogona kuunza matambudziko matsva ekukwira kwemitengo. Mutengo wemutengo wevatengi (CPI), unosanganisira chiyero che "core CPI" chinoratidza kuti mitengo yakachinja sei muzvikamu zvakasiyana (kunze kwekudya nesimba) uye zvakare iri padanho rekodhi. Muchokwadi, anopfuura 90% ezvikamu zvaanonyoresa anoratidza inflation yakakura kupfuura 5%. Uye chii chinonyanya kunetsa, mitengo yekudyara mumasevhisi masheya ndiyo yakakwira zvakanyanya nguva pfupi yadarika. Kuwanda kwemadzvinyiriro, inflation yakareba icharamba iripo.
Nhoroondo yekushanduka kweCPI vs iri pasi peCPI. Kunobva: Bankinter
Nhoroondo yakatidzidzisa kuti inflation inowanzoenda zvishoma nezvishoma. Kufanana nema1970, semuenzaniso, kwayakakwira kakawanda mushure mekudonha, uye yakagara kwenguva yakareba kupfuura zvaitarisirwa nevaisiridzi mari. Chimwe chikonzero ndechekuti inflation inogona kutora nguva kubva muhurongwa.
Chii chinoita kuti kuisa mari mumastock edzimba?🏡
Izvi zvino zvinoonekwa mumutengo wekutenga kana kurenda imba. Mitengo yedzimba yakakwira zvakanyanya kubva padenda, uye izvo zvakonzera kukwira kwemitengo nekusimudzira hupfumi. Mushure mezvose, kuisa mari muzvitoro zvekutengesa ndeimwe yevatyairi vehupfumi. Asi izvi zvakwidzawo mitengo yekurojesa. Kushaikwa kwedzimba dzekutenga uye mitengo yedziripo haisvikike kune vakawanda vangangotenga.Izvi zvapa kuti kudiwa kuchinjira kumusika wekurojesa. Naizvozvo, mitengo yekurenda inogona kuramba ichikwira kwechinguva, kunyangwe mitengo yemba ikatanga kudonha. Kuve chikamu chikuru cheCPI basket (ine uremu hwe32%), inogona kugadzirisa kudonha mune mamwe matunhu uye kuchengetedza inflation padanho repamusoro kwenguva yakareba.
Mutengo weimba ndiyo inonyanya kukosha, uye inogona kunge isina kukwira. Kunobva: US Bureau yeLabour Statistics
Pamusoro pezvo, kune njodzi mbiri huru dzinogona kukonzeresa spike nyowani mukukwira kwemitengo: hondo muUkraine neCovid. Mitengo yechikafu neyesimba yakakanganiswa zvakanyanya nehondo muUkraine, uye kurwisana kuri kuwedzera (kana sarudzo yeRussia bvisa gasi rekupa chando chisati chasvika) zvinogona kukonzera kuti mitengo ikwire zvakare. Zvichakadaro, Covid inoramba ichidhinda nemhando nyowani, saka pachave nenjodzi yehutachiona zvakare ichikanganisa cheni dzekugovera munyika dzakakosha senge. China.
Nokusava nechokwadi kwose uku, takananga kupi?🧭
Nezvatanga tichikurukura, taona kuti inflation inogona kunge yakakwira zvakanyanya. Asi inogona kuramba yakakwira kwenguva yakati, pamwe yakakwira kupfuura inotarisirwa nemusika uye zvechokwadi yakakwira zvakanyanya kupfuura iyo Federal Reserve's 2% tarisiro. Vakuru veFed vanoziva kuti kana vakakwira kubva mukusimudza mitengo kusvika pakubata (kana kutodzikisira) mitengo kana hupfumi huchiri kusimba, vanoisa panjodzi yekupisa hupfumi zvakare uye kukonzera inflation kuti ikurumidze. Naizvozvo, ivo vangango mirira humbowo hwekuti inflation iri kudzoka pedyo nekwainovavarira. Uye izvi zvinogona kutora nguva yakareba kupfuura zvinotarisirwa nevanosima mari.Nyaya chete yatinoona inflation ichidzikira zvakanyanya ndeiya yekuderera kwehupfumi kunotyisa. Asi izvozvo hazvingave mhedzisiro yakanaka yekudyara mari. Chaizvoizvo nekuti inflation ingangodzikira mushure mekunge hupfumi hwadzikira, zvichisiya vatengesi vakatarisana nemamiriro ekunze ekukura kwakaderera uye inflation yakakwira, mamiriro ekare akaoma ekudyara mumasheya.
Kuti inflation inokanganisa sei kuisa mari mumasheya. Kunobva: IG
Semaonero edu, kune zvakawanda zvakawandisa zvisingazivikanwe uye zviitiko zvakawandisa zvekufanotaura mumhedzisiro imwe chete, uye vanoisa mari vanogona kunge vaine tarisiro pamusoro peyakanakisa nyaya. Mumhando iyi yenharaunda, zvine musoro kusiyanisa masheya edu ekudyara mumasekete angaite zvakanaka mumamiriro akasiyana. Tinogona kuendesa chikamu chemari yedu muchikamu chezvekutengesa kuti tizvidzivirire kubva pakukwira kwemitengo kwakakwira uye kwenguva refu kuUS Treasury kana kudzikira kwakanyanya kuchidzikamisa kukura uye inflation.