Kwasara chidhinha chimwe chete kuti chirambe chakamira mu real estate stock investing. Kana iyo S&P 500 indekisi yakapinda mumusika webheya kutanga kwemwedzi uno, zvaive nekuti kuenzana kwekudyara kwainge kwakwira. Asi mamiriro ezvinhu angadai akawedzera kuipa dai chimwe chete chinhu changa chiri kusimudzira kudyara kwemari chisina kusimba. Dambudziko nderekuti pane zvikonzero zvekutenda kuti hazvitore nguva yakareba.
Sei kudonha kwemitengo kwakadonhedza pasi stock investing?😨
Sangano reUS Federal Reserve rapinda mune rimwe danho rayo rekukwira nepamusoro-soro gore rino mukuyedza kurwisa inflation yepamusoro yakanyorwa mumakore anodarika makumi mana. Iyi miberero yakakwira (uye kusvetukira mugoho remabond) yakadonhedza kukosha kwekudyara kwemari, kunyanya pakati pekudyara mumasheya ekukura anodhura ayo auya kuzotonga musika we equity. invest in US stocks. inogona kuona pazasi inogadzirirwa nedata kubva kuAbsolute Strategy Research, inoratidza shanduko ye12 mwedzi inoteedzana mumutengo-mubairo reshiyo (P / E) yekupedzisira yeS&P 500, ndiko kuti, hukama pakati pekukosha kwemusika weiyo index uye purofiti yayo mukati memwedzi gumi nemiviri yapfuura. Kusimuka, kana "kuwedzera” muna 2020, zvakanyanya nekuda kwekuwanda kwemapaketi ekusimudzira akaburitswa nehurumende nemabhanga epakati kuti vagadzirise denda iri, ndiyo yaive yakakurumidza kunyorwa uye yave kuteverwa nekunyanyisa. compression" pane rekodhi, kusiya 2020 mabhenefiti uyezve mamwe.
Iyo S&P 500 yakaona yakakura-pamusoro-gore kuderera mukukosha (sekuyerwa nekutevera P / E) pane rekodhi. Kunobva: Bloomberg.
Muchati chinotevera tinogona kuona kudonha kwakapinza muP / E yepamberi yeS & P 500, ndiko kuti, hukama pakati pekukosha kwemusika weiyo index uye kufanotaura kwayo pamusoro pemwedzi gumi nemiviri inotevera.
Mushure mekukwirira kwa2020, iyo P/E yeS&P 500 yadzokera kuavhareji yayo yezana ramakore rechiXNUMX. Kunobva: Bloomberg
Nepo iyo P/E yekumberi ichigona kudonha zvakanyanya, mazhinji ekutengesa-kunofambiswa nemutengo wapera, nereshiyo yeP/E ikozvino yadzokera kuavhareji yayo yezana ramakore rechi21. Mubvunzo zvino ndewekuti fungidziro yemuhoro payakavakirwa nhamba idzi ndeyechokwadi here, nekuti ndizvo chete zviri kuita kuti iwe uise mari mumasheya izvozvi.
Mafungiro emuhoro achangoburwa akarurama here pakudyara kwemari?📊
Pasinei nekusagadzikana kwese kwazvino kwakapoteredza kudyara kwemasheya uye hupfumi hweUS, fungidziro yevaongorori inoratidza kusakanganiswa kwekufanotaura kweUS kwegore rino, 2023 na2024.
Vaongorori vachiri kutarisira purofiti yeUS kukwira kunyangwe kutya kudzikira. Kunobva: Goldman Sachs Investment Research
Muchokwadi, S&P 500 mihoro yekufungidzira yakakwira 3% kusvika zvino gore rino. Ichokwadi kuti izvi zvinonyanya kukonzerwa ne mari mune simba kambani migove, izvo zviri kubatsirwa nekukwira kwemitengo yemafuta negasi. Kana tikasabvisa zviito izvi, kufanotaura kunenge kwakadzikama. Asi kunyangwe izvo hazvina kujairika: zvakajairwa ndezvekuti fungidziro dzidzike zvishoma pakati pegore zvichitevera muitiro wemakambani emakambani anodzikisa bara sezvaanoswedera pedyo. Chinotonyanya kushamisa ndechekuti mari yegore rino haisati yafamba zvisinei nemhepo yavanga vakatarisana nayo. Runaway inflation ichakuvadza kudiwa kwevatengi uye mari yebhizinesi, mitengo yakakwira ichakwidza mari yekubhadhara, mibairo yakakwirira inoderedza purofiti, dhora rakasimba richaderedza kukosha kwemhindu yekunze, zvichingodaro.
Inflation yakwira muzvikamu zvese zvekuisa mari mumastock. Kunobva:OECD
Hazvishamisi kuti hedge fund mamaneja vakave vasina tariro zvakanyanya nezve tarisiro yemuhoro mune ichangoburwa Bank of America ongororo. Pakarepo mushure mekubhuroka kweLehman Brothers muna 2008 ndipo mamaneja mazhinji akatarisira kuti purofiti yese ichadonha.
Tarisiro yekudzoka kwepasi rose kubva mukudyara mumasheya iri padanho rakaderera kubva pakaparara Lehman muna 2008. Kwakabva: Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey
Saka isu tinofanira kunetseka nezveramangwana rekudyara kwemasheya?💣
Kana tarisiro yepurofiti ikave yakanyanya kukwirira, chimwe chezvinhu zviviri chinogona kuitika:
- Makambani anozopotsa fungidziro dzemihoro (zvinotungamira kune mamwe mastock sell-offs).
- Kufembera kwakashata kwepurofiti kana kudyara mumasheya kunokonzera kudzikira.
Kana iri iyo yekupedzisira, zvinoreva kuti pane mukana wemitengo yekudyara kwemasheya kudonha zvakanyanya pasina kudzvanyirira tarisiro yako yekuyeresa - kureva kutora P/E yenguva dzose, kudonha kwemari kunosangana nekudonha kwemitengo. Kukosheswa kwekudyara kwemasheya kwakadzikira, asi fungidziro yemuhoro haina. Saka kunyangwe vaongorori vakaderera fungidziro kana makambani anopedzisira azvishaya, mitengo yekudyara kwemasheya inogona kudzika. Parizvino, zvakanaka kuti tichengetedze kuratidzwa kwekudyara kwemasheya kwakadzikira uye tigadzirire kusvika tatanga kuona fungidziro dzemihoro dzichidzokororwa zvichidzika.