Haisi yese ichave iri yakaipa nhau dzezvemari zvinhu munguva yekupararira kwakapararira. Uye nhau dzakanaka dzinouya kubva kumafuta, iyo yanga iri imwe yematanho makuru emisika yemari yakadhirika kubva munaKurume. Mupfungwa yekuti pakupedzisira Russia neSaudi Arabia ivo vakwanisa kubvisa zvipingamupinyi zvavo zvikuru pakubvumirana chibvumirano chitsva pakuchekwa kwemafuta. Vachagura mabhiriyoni makumi maviri emabhiriyoni pazuva, asi nemamiriro ezvinhu nenhumwa dzeRussia dzinotaura nezvekuti "chingave chigadzirwa chakakura kupfuura zvese chakambobvumiranwa neOPEC, asi Russia yakasimbirira kuti ichangodzikisa kugadzirwa kana US ikabatana. chibvumirano.
Chero zvazvingaitika, inhau dzakamirirwa kwenguva refu kuvashambadziri nekuti zvinotora kumanikidza kumisika yemasheya angangoita epasirese. Hazvishamise, Mutungamiri Trump akataura neChitatu kuti vagadziri veoiri vekuUS vanga vachitocheka kugadzirwa uye vakayambira kuti ane zvakawanda zvaangasarudza kana Saudi Arabia neRussia zvisina kusvika chibvumirano. Asi pakupedzisira pakange paine chibvumirano pakati pemapato ese uye izvo zvakabatsira kukosheswa kwemusika wemasheya kwakagadziridzwa muzvikamu zvichangopfuura. Iko kuenzanisirwa equity index yenyika yedu, iyo Ibex 35, yawana huwandu hwemapoinzi mazana manomwe. Kunyangwe riinhi?
Pasina kupokana kuti chiyero ichi pane kugadzirwa kwevatema goridhe inogona kuve yakakosha nzira yemisika yemari kubva zvino zvichienda mberi. Kunyanya kana ichiperekedzwa nekudzikisira uye kudzikisira macoronavirus kesi kutenderera pasirese. Asi izvo mune chero mamiriro ezvinhu hazvireve kudzoserwa mumisika yemari, asi zvinopesana icho chikamu chekudzokorodza, zvakanyanya kana kushomeka izvo zviri kusimukira kubva pazasi zvakazosvika pakati paKurume. Uye uko iyo Ibex 35 yakasvika pakuyedza kutsigirwa kwemapoinzi mazana mazana masere nemakumi mashanu, yakaderera pane mazhinji uye mazhinji makore ekutengesa.
Oiri: pamusoro pe $ 30
Muvhiki rapfuura, ramangwana reBrent rakapfupisa madhora makumi matatu nematatu pakati pekukwira kwetariro kwechibvumirano chitsva chepasi rose chinogura mafuta. Iyo brent yakasvika kukwira kumusoro + 47%, muzinga rayo repamusoro rezuva nezuva rinowanikwa, uye rakavharwa nekukwira kwe + 21%, richiri padhuze nehafu yemadhora makumi matanhatu nematanhatu payakatengesa pakupera kwa66. Uku ndiko kumwe kwekuwedzera kwakanyanya munguva pfupi yapfuura uye mushure yakasvika pamatanho zvishoma pasi pemadhora makumi maviri pabharira, hushoma hwakawanikwa mumakore achangopfuura uye hunogona kuwedzera matambudziko muhupfumi hwenyika dzese. Nema alarm ese akaiswa munyika dzese dzakasimukira
Mushure mekunge Goldman Sachs achangodzikisa mutengo wayo we2020 Brent, achipokana kuti kuderedzwa kwekugadzirwa kweOPEC uye kutemerwa kwepakati pebhangi hazvingakwanise kudzora kuwanda kukuru kwezvivakwa zvinokonzerwa nekuderera kwakadzika kwekuparara kwekononavirus. Hazvishamise kuti, kusvika parizvino tarisiro yeiyi nhepfenyuro yezvemari parizvino yanga isiri iyo inonyanya kuvimbisa uye mune dzakawanda zviitiko zvine zvinangwa zvine njodzi kune zvido zvenyika dzepasirese. Kunyangwe iyo mamiriro angave akachinja kubva zvino zvichienda mberi, zvirinani munguva pfupi. Mupfungwa iyi, zvinofanirwa kuyeukwa kuti Brent inoshandiswa sereferenzi mumisika ye Africa, Europe, uye Middle East. Iyo Brent minda iri muNorth Sea, pakati peScotland neNorway uye uko Brent isina kuchena inotengeswa pane ICE kuchinjisa kuburikidza neramangwana uye sarudzo
Vabatsiri vechibvumirano ichi
Hapana mubvunzo kuti mumwe wevakakunda zvikuru pachiyero ichi mune yegoridhe chikamu ndiyo misika yequity. Mupfungwa yekuti indices dzayo dzinonyanya kukosha dzinogona kusimudzira kumusoro, kunyangwe pasina kuziva kusimba kwayo uye kunyanya nguva yeichi chiitiko chekumusoro. Nepo kune rimwe divi, iyo inogona kushanda kupa hukuru kuvimba kune vashoma nepakati varimi. Kubva ino maonero hapana mubvunzo a Nhau dzakanaka dzevashandisi vemasheya pamwe nekwaniso yekuti vanogona kuita kuti yavo inowanikwa capital ibatsire munguva pfupi. Nesarudzo dzinonakidza kwazvo panguva ino dzinogona kutungamirwa nekufamba kwakasimba kwekuvimbika.
Chimwe chinhu chekufunga nezvacho kubva zvino ndicho icho chinoreva kune data rakaratidzirwa neiyi yemari asset mukota yakapfuura. Kubva pane ino maonero, zvinofanirwa kuyeukwa kuti mushumo wemwedzi wega pamusoro pekushanduka kwemutengo weBrent mafuta munaKurume 2020, mutengo weBrent mafuta mumwedzi waMarch 2020 wakaderera ne - 55,78%, ingangoita - 28,74 madhora ekuUS. pabharira. Chii chaive chatove chakaipa chimiro chakaratidza kudzikira kwekukosheswa kweiyi yakakosha mari yemari, sezvazvakaitika nekushanduka kwayo mumavhiki aKurume. Hazvishamise kuti ndakanga ndisati ndaona masero emadhora makumi maviri emadhora pagiramu kwenguva yakareba.
Repsol iwe unogona kukwira zvinzvimbo
Pakati peiyo Ibex makumi matatu nematanhatu, iyo inogona kunyatso kutora iyi yekukwira maforivha asina kugadzirwa. Mushure me kuputsika kwemusika wemusika Iri kusvika maeuro manomwe pachikamu uye pasi petsika yakajeka mushure mekunge yasvika anopfuura gumi nemaviri euros pakupera kwegore rapfuura. Kuve imwe yetsika dzakaipisisa yesarudzo inoshanduka inoshanduka munyika medu. Kunyangwe ini ndakakwanisa kuburitsa yakakosha rebound kubva kune yayo enhoroondo lows uye isu hatizive kuti ingasvika kupi iyo inogona kuenda kana kana yanga yaneta mazuva ano. Mune chero zviitiko zvacho, ndeimwe yeanonyanya kushambadza masisitisi emakesi ezvose uye izvo zvinopa nzira zhinji dzekudyara kubva kune ese mafaera evashambadzi vadiki nepakati.
Kune rimwe divi, chisina kukosha ndechekuti iyi kambani yemafuta irikutungamira zano rayo rekuve kambani ine zero net emissions na2050, ichive chekutanga muchikamu chayo kumisikidza ichi chinzvimbo chinangwa. Iyo kambani yakafungidzira hutsva hwemafuta uye gasi mamiriro emitengo anoenderana nezvinangwa zvemamiriro ekunze zvechibvumirano cheParis, izvo zvave zvichireva kugadziridzwa kwemamiriyoni e4.849 emamiriyoni mubhuku kukosha kwezvinhu zveboka zvakakonzera mhedzisiro mambure e2019, yaive -3.816 mamirioni euros. Yakagadziriswa mambure mari, iyo inoyera mashandiro emakambani ekambani, yakasvika 2.042 mamirioni euros, ichiratidza simba rayo kunyangwe mune mamiriro emitengo yakaderera yemafuta uye gasi uye mashoma emahara maindasitiri.
Zviitiko mune zvimwe zvikamu
Zvirongwa zvekuchengetera kuchengetedza mumakambani emafuta akanyorwa pamisika yemasheya ndeaya inomiririrwa nemitemo yeEurope (Repsol, Total Fina, British Petroleum kana Royal Dutch Shell) uye kuburikidza nedzimwe sarudzo dzine hukasha dzinogona kugadziriswa muNorth American parquets (Exxon Mobile, DRM…) uye izvo, musimboti, zvinosanganisira kuwedzera kunokwana mumutengo wemafuta asina kuchena. Munguva yepakati nepakati, kukwira kwemafuta kunogona kukanganisa vashandisi veSpain sezvo zvichizokanganisa kuwanda kwepeturu uye mafuta, uye semhedzisiro zvakare mukutakura kwevanhu (makochi, ndege, nezvimwewo) uye imwe imba mabhiri emagetsi.
Paunenge uri kune rimwe divi, iwe unogona zvakare kuzviisa iwe mune ino yemari asset kuburikidza neyakagadziriswa-term deposits. Pamusoro pechinhu ichi, zvinofanirwa kusimbiswa kuti chakanakira iko kuchengetedzeka kunogadzirwa nezvigadzirwa izvi zvinovimbiswa mari yese yakasimwa, pamwe nekuderera kwekukwanisa kudonha mumitengo yavo. Pane kudaro, haina kusanganisira zvese zvayakakwidziridza, asi kazhinji unogona kuwana pakati pe3% ne5% purofiti, chero zvichiteerana zvinodiwa zvinowirirana zvinowirirana nekushanduka kwakanaka kwemakambani akanyorwa pabhegi.
Pane nzira dzinoverengeka dzekutora mukana nerudzi urwu rwekudyara, kungave kuburikidza nemadhipoziti akabatana nemakambani emafuta anotendera kuwedzera mubairo wechigadzirwa, kana kuburikidza nechigadzirwa "Bent Premier", Iyo iri kutengeswa nemamwe masisitimu echikwereti uye ayo anongedzo poindi ndiyo dhiramu "Brent", Uye kuti kutanga kubva padiki mari kuti unyore kubva ku2.000 euros, iyo inobvumidza kusimudzira mamiriro echigadzirwa, kunyangwe kuvhara kudonha kunogona kuitika, hafu yeguta guru inosimbiswa semutero wakatarwa kwemwedzi mitanhatu ine kufarira kwakatenderedza 3% APR. Nemari inodikanwa yemipiro kupfuura mune mamwe mabhengi anoisa. Yakagadziriswa mambure mari, iyo inoyera mashandiro emakambani ekambani, yakasvika 2.042 mamirioni euros.