Kana paine chinhu chimwe chichave nechakanyanya kukanganisa pakudzoka mumakore anotevera, kugoverwa kweasset. Mazhinji emaitiro akafarira kudyara mumasheya (kukura kwakadzikama, kukwira kwemitengo kunoramba kuripo, kudonha kwemitengo) vari panjodzi yekudzokera kumashure. Chete chechokwadi chepodfolio chichatibatsira kutsungirira chero makore mashoma anotevera anotikandira. Tiri kuzokudzidzisa kuti ungagadzira sei yako.
Danho 1: Sarudza asset kune yega yega mamiriro🗺️
Iyo portfolio yakadzikama zvechokwadi haina basa kana kukura kwehupfumi uye inflation zvichikwira kana kudzika. Inofanirwa kukwanisa kuita mune chero nharaunda. Izvi zvinoreva kuwana mari inogona kuunza kudzoka kwenguva refu, asi inoratidzwa kuhupfumi nenzira dzakasiyana. Nenzira iyi, isu tichagara tiine asset paruoko inochengetwa mune chero mamiriro ehupfumi ...
Kana kukura kwakasimba uye inflation yakaderera… 📋
Mune ino kesi, iyo mari mumasheya inofanira kuunza kudzoka kwakanaka. Asi isu tingade kusarudza kuisa mari mumasheya epasi rose kwete ekuUS sezvo ari kutengeserana nemutengo wakaderera, asingaonekwi nenjodzi yeUS uye akasiyana muzvikamu zvakawanda. Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT), inova yakachipa, yakanyanyisa mvura uye yakasarudzika sarudzo. Ehe, iwe unogona kugara uchidyara mumasheya ega kana zvikamu zvaunofarira pane ETF, kana musanganiswa wezvitatu.
Kana kukura kwakasimba asi inflation ikaramba iri pamusoro…⛽
Mumamiriro ezvinhu aya, zvinowanzoitika kuti mibereko icharamba iri pamazinga akanyanya kudarika ayo atakasangana nawo mumakumi maviri emakore apfuura. Izvo zvingangoisa kudzvanywa pakudyara kwemari, uku uchibatsira midziyo senge zvinhu, izvo zvinobata kukosha kwazvo mumashoko chaiwo. abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Strategy K-1 Yemahara ETF (BCI) inzira yakachipa, yakasiyana-siyana uye inoshanda yekubatsirikana kubva pakudzoka kunowanikwa pazvinhu chaizvo.
Kana kukura kusina simba uye inflation ikaramba yakakwira… 🏆
Kuno kuisirwa mari mumastock, mabhondi uye zvinhu zvinogona kuzotambura. Ichowo chiitiko chinogoneka zvachose. Mamiriro ezvinhu akadai sedeglobalization, decarbonization, uye kuwedzera kwefiscal stimulus zvinogona kuita kuti inflation irambe yakasindimara yakakwira kunyangwe kukura kunodzikira.Sezvineiwo, goridhe rinofanirwa kuita zvakanaka mune iyi "stagflation" scenario, sezvo yaizobatsirika kubva mukudonha kwemitengo yemberero, kuderera kwenjodzi uye kukwira kwemitengo kwakakwira. . Zvinogoneka zvakare kuti iyo ndarama Iva ruzhowa rwakanangana nemhedzisiro isingatarisirwe yekuwedzera kuedza kwemari uye mitemo yezvemari, izvo zvinogona kutungamira mukuderedzwa kwemari.Nzira yakachipa uye iri nyore yekuwana mukana kune goridhe kuburikidza neETF. abrdn Physical Gold Shares (SGOL).
Kana hupfumi hukapinda mukuderera kwakadzika uye kwenguva refu ... 🎫
Zvinotyisa kungofunga nezvazvo ... Inflation inogona kudonha uye Fed ichacheka mhindu zvakare. Iyi ingave nharaunda yakaipa yekudyara mumasheya uye zvigadzirwa, asi yakanaka kune vanoisa mari. Treasury bond muUS mukufamba kwenguva, izvo zvaizobatsirika nekudonha kwemitengo, kuderera kwemitengo uye kumhanya kwekutenga zvinhu zvakachengetedzeka. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), iyo inowanzoisa mari muzvisungo nekukura kweanopfuura makore gumi.
Tinogona kupfupisa ese apfuura mamiriro seanotevera:
Tine mhando yekudyara inoita zvakanaka munharaunda yega yega.
Danho rechipiri: Seta mabasa ✍️
Zvino zvatava neasset yenzvimbo yega yega macroeconomic, ngativei nechokwadi chekuti portfolio yedu haina kurerekera kune imwe nyaya kana imwe.Pamusoro pezvese, chimwe nechimwe chemidziyo iyi chine kushanduka kwakasiyana, izvo zvinoreva kuti kugovera huremu hwakafanana hwemari (capital). 25% imwe neimwe) hazvizoiti kuti tiwane kuratidzwa kwakaringana. Ngatimbofungidzira kuti bond rinowanzo fambisa $1 zvichienzaniswa ne $3 ye stock. Kana isu tiine portfolio inoumbwa ne50% yekudyara mumabhondi uye 50% yekudyara mumasheya, iyo yekupedzisira (iyo inofamba katatu kupfuura mabhondi) ichave nekupesvedzera kwakanyanya pakubatsira kwepodfolio yedu. Nokudaro, kuti tienzanise iyo portfolio, tinofanira kuva nemabhondi akapetwa katatu sematokisi. Izvi zvinozivikanwa zviri nani se "risk-based" chinzvimbo saizi, uye ndiyo kiyi yekuvaka yakanyatsodzikama portfolio.Zvamazvirokwazvo, hazvisi nyore sekuti "stocks inokwira $3 pa $1 yega yega mumabhondi." Neraki, tinogona kushandisa chishandiso Portfoliovisualizer kuverenga kuti imarii yatinofanira kugovera kune imwe neimwe asset. Mumuenzaniso wedu, inotitaurira kuti tinofanira kugovera "ngozi-based weight" ye25% kumatokari, 21% kune zvigadzirwa, 24% kune goridhe, uye 30% kune Treasuries. Iyi portfolio ndeye "macro-neutral".
Iyo bulletproof "macro-neutral" chikwama.
Nhanho 3: Gadzirisa yedu portfolio zvichibva pane yedu yenguva pfupi chiratidzo 🔍
Kana iwe uchinzwa uine chivimbo mukati mako, unogona kutanga ku "tilt" yako macro-neutral portfolio. Nemamwe manzwi, tinogona kugadzirisa kugoverwa kana tichitenda kuti mutengo wemusika wabviswa kubva kuchokwadi chemamiriro ezvinhu.Ngatifungei kuti tinotenda kuti hupfumi huchadzikira zvakanyanya kupfuura izvo vatengesi vakaisa mitengo pamusika. Tinogona kutarisira kudzikira uku kudzikisa inflation, asi kwete zvakanyanya sezvinotarisirwa nemusika. Kuratidza maonero aya, tinogona kudzikisa kugoverwa kwekudyara kwedu kumasheya uye zvinhu, uye kuwedzera kugoverwa kwedu kune kwenguva refu Treasury negoridhe, sezvinotevera:
| ticker | WEDZERA | INFLATION | PORTFOLIO DISTRIBUTION | KUFUNGAMIRIRA | PORTFOLIO REDISTRIBUTION | |
| ZVINHU ZVOSE | VT | + | - | 25% | -4% | 21% |
| RAW MATERIALS | DBC | + | + | 21% | -5% | 16% |
| Goridhe | SGL | - | + | + 2% | 26% | |
| TREASURY BOND | TLT | - | - | 30% | + 7% | 37% |
Rangarira kuti kana ichinyanya kutsauka, ndipo patinozonyanya kutsamira pakubudirira kwekufanotaura kwemunhu. Uye sezvatakataura pakutanga, iyi portfolio inoedza kudzivirira kufanotaura zvakanyanya sezvinobvira.
Nhanho 4: gadzirisazve iyo portfolio ⚖️
Isu tinofanirwa kudzikamisa portfolio yedu nguva nenguva (semuenzaniso kota yega yega) kana pese apo kirasi yeasset inosangana nekufamba kukuru. Izvi zvinodaro nekuti kugova kwako chaiko kungangove kwakatsauka zvakanyanya kubva pachinangwa chako. Kana tichiti rebalance tinoreva kutenga zvakawanda zveasset kana mutengo wayo wadzikira, uye kushoma kana ichikwira.Tinofanirawo kudzoreredza portfolio yedu kana macroeconomic maonero edu achinja zvakanyanya. Semuenzaniso, kana kukosha kwekudyara kwedu mumasheya kukadzikira uye Federal Reserve ikatanga kudzoreredza chiyero chemhindu, tinogona kufunga kuwedzera mugove wedu kwavari. Asi tinofanira kuva nechokwadi chokuti hatisundi kure zvikuru nebasa iri rokutanga. Kunyanya nekuti isu tinofarira kuchengetedza chiyero chakakodzera munzvimbo isina chokwadi yakadaro, kunyanya sezvo chero emamwe mamiriro ataurwa pamusoro angangove ari pakona.
Danho rechishanu: Ramba uchitarisira zvinogoneka 📊
Isu tinofanirwa kuyeuka kuti yedu yekudzivirira portfolio ine chinangwa chekuwedzera mukana wekuita mari isu tisingazive kuti hupfumi huchatora gwara ripi. Zvinoreva kuti iyi portfolio haina mukana wekurasikirwa nehukuru kana kugara kwenguva refu seyakaomeswa zvakanyanya.Asi inogonawo kutadza kuita basa rakanangana nekirasi yeasset inoita zvakanyanya mumakore anotevera. Mune mamwe mazwi, chiyero chepodfolio chinoreva kuti tichagamuchira zvakanaka asi zvisingashamisi kudzoka mukutsinhana kwekurara kuri nani. Uye munguva dzino dzekusava nechokwadi, hazviratidzike sekukanganisa kwakashata ...