Vazhinji vezvehupfumi vanobvuma kuti kuderera kwemari hakudzivisiki mukudyara kwemari. Sezvo usiri mubvunzo wekuti zvichaitika here kana kuti kwete, asi riini. Uye pamubvunzo iwoyo, kutenderera kwetariro, kwakagadzirwa naPiper Sandler mukuru wekudyara strategist Michael Kantrowitz, inogona kupa imwe nzwisiso. Inoratidza kuti mibairo yakakwira sei inokanganisa zvikamu zvina zvakakosha zvehupfumi: dzimba, maodha, purofiti uye basa. Saka ngatitarisei kutenderera uye tione zvarinotitaurira izvozvi...
Real estate market: ndiyo yekutanga kumira🏘️
Chikamu chekutanga chekuita kune yakakwira mubereko musika wekutengesa zvivakwa, uye inowanzoita nenzira huru. Mushure mezvose, real estate ndiyo yakakura yeasset kirasi munyika uye yakabatana zvakananga kune mamwe akakosha zvikamu zvehupfumi: vatengesi vevatengi, semuenzaniso, uye mabhangi.
Mortgage mitengo yakakwira pamusoro pe6% munguva pfupi yapfuura. Kunobva: Bloomberg
Pano, mareti emubereko akakwira anoturikira mumitengo yakakwira yembavha, iyo inokwidza mutengo wekutenga imba uye inoderedza kudiwa. Uye kana mitengo yembandi yakakwira zvakanyanya, nekukurumidza, sezvavakaita nguva pfupi yadarika (muyero wemakore makumi matatu echikwereti chemondi muUS uchangopfuura 30%, kubva pa6% mwedzi mishoma yapfuura) , kukanganisa kwacho kwave kuda kuitika. Vanogona kutenga vanomanikidzwa kubva pamusika; apo vatengesi vanoona kuti vanofanira kumirira kwenguva yakareba kuti vawane mutengi uye vangafanira kukanganisa pamutengo.
Mashoko acho anotiudzei?🕵🏼
Iyo NAHB Housing Market Index, iyo inotora humbowo hwemusika wedzimba dzemhuri imwe chete nekuongorora vanhu nezvezvinhu zvakaita sekugona kwedzimba, vangani vangangove vatengi vakashanyira dzimba nyowani, uye kutengesa kunotarisirwa, kwakakwira muna 2021 uye nguva pfupi yadarika yakadonha neyechitanhatu. mwedzi wakatevedzana.
Nahb 10-gore US real estate market index. Kunobva: TradingEconomics
Dzimba itsva nemvumo yekuvaka, chiratidzo chekuvakwa kweimba itsva, zvakadererawo. Uye sezvo izvi zviratidzo zvichiratidza kuti iyo yepamusoro yakaitika mwedzi mishoma yapfuura, isu pamwe tatopfuura nhanho yekutanga.
Mirairo: Maodha matsva kubva kumakambani nevatengi anodzikira
Kana makambani anotarisira kuti vatengi vaderedze kushandisa kwavo munguva pfupi, vanogadzirisa kugadzirwa kwavo nekukurumidza sezvavanokwanisa. Uye iko zvino, pane zvikonzero zvakawanda nei vatengi vava kuda kuomesa mabhandi avo: Kukwira kwemitengo yedzimba uye mitengo yakakwira yechikafu, gasi uye zvekushandisa zviri kuomesa bhajeti remhuri uye kuita kuti ivo vawedzere kudzikisa mari yavo.
Mashoko acho anotiudzei? 🕵🏼
El ISM Kugadzira Maodha Matsva, iyo inoongorora makambani anopfuura mazana mana pamaodha matsva, zvinyorwa, maodha uye zvirongwa zvekugadzira, zvave kudonha zvishoma kubva gore rapfuura. Uye nechivimbo che vatengi y iyo makambani kudonha kubva kumawere, isu hatigone kuona shanduko nekukurumidza. Zvakadaro, the maodha matsva ezvinhu zvevatengi vakaramba vakasimba uye indasitiri yekutengesa Vakangosangana nekadonha kadiki.
ISM indekisi yemirairo mitsva muchikamu chekugadzira. Kunobva: Tradingeconomics
Izvi zvinoratidza kuti tinogona kunge tava pedyo nepakati pechikamu ichocho chechipiri. Kana chiri chokwadi, tingangove tiine isingasviki gore hupfumi hwese husati hwatanga kuderera (T = 0 mune chati iri pamusoro).
Benefits: Pakupedzisira, makambani anokanganisa
Kana purofiti yemakambani ichiita kunge yakaramba yakatsiga, imhaka yekuti, sekuratidzwa kwehurongwa, kukanganisa kwemitengo yakakwira pane purofiti haisi yekukurumidza. Zvinotora kubata chete mushure mekunge vatengi vaomesa tambo dzechikwama.
Uye munguva pfupi, makambani anogona kazhinji kuchengetedza purofiti yavo nekucheka mitengo, kushandura imwe mari kune vatengi vavo, kana kunonoka kushandisa. Asi pakupedzisira, kudzikira kwekushandisa kwevatengi uye kuwedzera kwekugadzira uye mari yekushandisa inotanga kuruma, uye purofiti yemakambani inodzikira. Panguva ino, makambani achafanirwa kuomesa mabhandi avo zvakanyanya, kumisa vashandi uye kusiya zvirongwa zvekuwedzera. Izvi zvine mhedzisiro yakakura kune yasara hupfumi uye ndosaka kudzikiswa kwepurofiti kunowanzo kukurumidza kuteverwa nekuderera kwehupfumi hwasara.
Mashoko acho anotiudzei? 🕵🏼
ari capital goods (nhumbi dzinoshandiswa kugadzira zvimwe zvinhu), the Kugadzirwa kwemaindasitiri and the avhareji yevhiki nevhiki ovhataimu maawa (AWH) yevashandi vekugadzira uye vasiri vatariri muchikamu chekugadzira vanoramba vachikura, kunyangwe ichinonoka. Izvi zvinoratidza kuti hatisati tasvika padanho rekuti purofiti yadzikiswa, asi kuti tave kuswedera pedyo. Uye kana tasvika ikoko, ingangove isingasviki gore hupfumi husati hwatevera kudzikira.
Nhoroondo yeavhareji yevhiki nevhiki ovhataimu maawa ekugadzira uye vasiri-vatariri vashandi. Kunobva: fred.stlouisfed
Basa: bhureki rekupedzisira
Basa ndiro rekupedzisira kuita kune yakakwira mari yemubereko uye rinotanga kudzikira chete mushure mehupfumi hwakawanda. Chete kana makambani ari kudzikisira zvakanyanya, kana vatengi vadzikisa mari yekushandisa, uye kana mitengo yedzimba yadzika kubva pakukwirira kwayo kwemwedzi mishoma iyo hurovha hunowedzera, mihoro uye purofiti inononoka, uye inflation ichidzikira.
US 2021 payroll index. Kunobva: Tradingeconomics
Mashoko acho anotiudzei?🕵🏼
ari payrolls and the mari yaunowana Ivo vakasimba, uye Pasi peCPI zvakakwirira. Uye nepo vazhinji vachinongedzera kune izvo zvinhu sehumbowo hwekusimba kwehupfumi, izvo zvinotarisa mamiriro ehupfumi aripo. Isa imwe nzira, mibairo yakakwira yave kutoderedza hupfumi, asi haisati yaonekwa mune izvo zviri kuderera zviratidzo zvehupfumi.
Saka kuderera kwehupfumi kucharova riinhi stock investing?
Iyo HOPE kutenderera mugwagwa uye data inoratidza kuti isu tapinda mukudzikira, muchikamu che "Orders". Uye izvo zvinogara zvichitungamira kudzikira kwakanyanya kwehupfumi nemwedzi mitanhatu kusvika gumi nemiviri. Hazvirevi hazvo kuti tichapinda mukuderera kwemari (mushure mezvose, igwara, kwete resipi chaiyo), asi zvinonyatsoratidza kuti kukura kunonokera kunogona kuitika nekukurumidza kupfuura zvinotarisirwa nevamwe vezvehupfumi.
Saka tinofanira kutarisa zviratidzo zvekuderera kwemari yekambani kwehafu yechipiri yegore rino, sezvo zvingaratidza kuti hurongwa huri kukura uye kuti hupfumi hunogona kupinda mukuderera pane imwe nguva inotevera anus.
Roadmap yekuti hupfumi hunopindura sei kune shanduko mumitengo. Kunobva: Michael Kantro
Kana zviri izvo zvatinofanira kuita nepodfolio yedu, isu tinofunga kuti chimiro chekudzivirira chichiri kutenderwa, zvirinani kudzamara kudzikira kwemuhoro wekambani kwave kujeka mune data. Panguva ino, isu tinofanirwa kuve nechokwadi chekuti tine makambani emhando yepamusoro mumaindasitiri ekudzivirira.