Mikana inokwezva yekudyara masheya yave yakaoma kuwana mumamiriro ekunze akatambudzwa nekukwira kwemitengo, kutya kwengozi yekuderera uye kuwedzera kwemhindu. Asi kwete kana iwe uri Warren Buffett. Mumwedzi mitanhatu yapfuura akashandisa mabhiriyoni emadhora kutenga chikamu che20% chezvikamu zve Occidental Petroleum (OXY). Iri sangano rinotipa chimwe chinhu chekufunga nezvazvo kwechinguva, kunyanya kuziva kuti ichangobva kuwana mvumo yekuwana 50% yekambani. Saka ngatijekese kusahadzika kwedu uye tiongorore kuti sei "Oracle yeOmaha" ichida kambani iyi zvakanyanya ...
1. Iine exposure kuAmerican shale.🛢️
Shale imhando yemaminerari iyo, ne hydraulically fracturing dombo, inobvumira gasi rechisikigo kutorwa. Uye kana pane chinhu chimwe chete chaunoda kuziva nezveBuffett, ndechekuti "haazombobheji achipesana neUnited States." Kukura kwe hydraulic fracturing, inozivikanwa zviri nani se fracking, kubvira 2010 yaita US shale simba rekuverengerwa. Yakashandura simba renyika uye yave nechokwadi chekuzvimirira kwesimba. Ikozvino kugadzira mafuta muUS (11,6 miriyoni mbiya pazuva) inodarika zvakapetwa kaviri zvayaive muna 2008, payakadzika mudambudziko mushure memakumi mana emakore ekuderera. Icho chokwadi chekusimbisa ndechekuti Occidental yakatenga Anadarko muna 2019, imwe yevagadziri vakakura shale muPermian Basin, inodzora kusvika makumi masere muzana eiyo US-yakavakirwa hydrocarbon kugadzirwa.
Shale gasi kuburitsa maitiro. Kunobva: Ziva.
2. Kuita purofiti yakanaka nekuda kwekukwira kwemitengo yemafuta.📈
Kuisa mari mumafuta uye gasi kuri nyore kunzwisisa, chaizvo mhando yebhizinesi Buffett inoda. Imhaka yekuti pane zvinhu zviviri chete zvakakosha zvinofambisa purofiti, huwandu hunogadzirwa uye mutengo wemafuta negesi. Iyo yekupedzisira ndiyo inonyanya kukosha, sezvo inobata zvakananga yekutanga. Kunyange zvazvo shanduko yesimba iri kutoitika, haizogara kwemakore akawanda. Izvi zvinoreva kuti ticharamba tichivimba nemafuta uye gasi. Mugirafu rinotevera tinogona kuona kukura kwemutengo wemari yemakambani emafuta, inotungamirwa neESG maitiro. Izvi zvave kureva kuti vagadziri vemafuta vanongokurudzirwa kugadzira mapurojekiti matsva nemadhora makumi mapfumbamwe padhiramu, zvichienzaniswa nemadhora makumi mashanu nenomwe dhiramu rine mutengo wakaderera wemari, kuchengetedza mafuta mashoma uye mitengo yemafuta yakakwira kwenguva refu.
Equilibrium mutengo wemafuta pamitengo yakasiyana yemari.
3. Ine nzvimbo yekukura nemutengo wakaderera.💸
Nzvimbo yakasimba yeOccidental's portfolio inzvimbo yayo yepasi muUS Ine 2,9 miriyoni maeka muPermian Basin, yakakura shale deposit iri pasi peTexas neNew Mexico. Iyo Permian Basin ine hupenyu hurefu hwezvishandiso, pamwe nekwakawanda kwekukura kwekugadzirwa kwemafuta eUS kunotarisirwa kuitika.Nekudaro, ine imwe yemitengo yepamusoro yekugadzira. Izvi zvinobvumira hupfumi hwechiyero kuderedza mari, kuve mukana mukuru wemakwikwi. Occidental haisi imwe chete yevagadziri vemafuta makuru muPermian, sezvatinoona mugirafu rinotevera, iriwo imwe yeanonyanya kubatsira.
Occidental ine chiyero chirinani cheP/E pane vakwikwidzi vayo. Kunobva: Simplywall.st.
4. Utungamiri hwakanaka hwekambani.👌
VaBuffett vakatanga kudyara masheya eOccidental Petroleum kutanga kwegore rino uye vati mukuru wekambani iyi ari kufambisa kambani iyi nemazvo. Achitaura nezvenyaya yekuti akakoshesa purofiti pane kugadzira. Kureva kuti, kana mibairo yaive yakaderera, makambani mazhinji akashandisa mari kuti awedzere, achitsvaga kukura nekubhadhara purofiti, kukuvadza vanoisa mari. Panzvimbo iyoyo, Occidental Petroleum's manejimendi timu yakatarisana nekugadzira yakasimba uye inoenderera kuyerera kwemari. Izvi zvinotsanangura chikonzero nei kugadzirwa kwemari kwave kwakasimba zvakanyanya munzvimbo dzazvino. Chikwata che manejimendi chakataura kuti chine zvinangwa zvitatu zvekubuda kwemari yemahara: kudzikisa chikwereti chayo, kubhadhara migove uye kutengazve zvikamu. Nechikwereti chemumbure chinotarisirwa kudzikiswa zvakanyanya mukupera kwegore rino, Oracle inomirira kukohwa mubairo mukuru mukudyara mumakore maviri anotevera.
Occidental Petroleum chikwereti kuequity kubva 2016 kusvika 2022. Kwakabva: Simplywall.st.
5. A healthy cash flow.💰
Kunyanya kupfuura kukura, kuwedzera kwemahara kuyerera kwemari ndiyo yakakosha metric paunenge uchiita stock investment. Inotiudza kuti yakawanda sei kambani yasara mushure mekudyara mune ramangwana rayo. Iyo yakakwirira yekuyerera kwemahara yemari, zviri nani kwatiri, sezvo iyo mari inogona kuiswa kune akawanda mashandisiro. Semuyenzaniso, kubhadhara chikwereti, kutenga, kudzoreredza mukambani, kana kudzosera kune vanogovaniswa nenzira yegovidhi kana kuburikidza nekutenga masheya. Sezvo mitengo yemafuta yakamira izvozvi, Occidental inotarisirwa kunge iri muchina wekugadzira mari uine purofiti yemahara yekubuda mari inosvika 14%. Izvi zvinoreva kuti inogona kudzorera migove yayo yese mumakore manomwe nechiyero chayo chazvino. Pamusoro pezvo, migove yaro inoenderera kusvika pamutengo usingafungidzirwe wemadhora makumi mana pabhari, uye kambani ichangobva kutanga chirongwa chekutenga chikamu chemadhora mabhiriyoni matatu, icho chaigona kutenga kudzoka kusvika ku40% yezvikamu zvayo zvemusika. .
Occidental Petroleum mari kubva 2007 kusvika 2021. Source: Occidental Petroleum.
6. A solid safety margin.📊
Kubhadhara zvakanyanya kwestock handizvo chaizvo zvaizoitwa naBuffett. Iwe unongotenga kana iwe uchitenda yakakura-yenguva yakareba kukosha kwekukura kunogona kugadzirwa. Nzira yakanakisa yekukoshesa kambani yemafuta negasi ndeyekuwedzera iyo net asset value (NAV) yezvinhu zvayo zvese. Tichatora mitengo yeoiri negasi yenguva refu yeramangwana, tobva tadzikisira mari inowaniswa nekugadzirwa kwehupenyu hwese. Chati iri pazasi yakavakirwa pafungidziro yeGoldman Sachs inoratidza kuti Occidental yakakosha zvakanyanya kana iwe uchitenda, sezvinoitwa neruzhinji rwevanoongorora, kuti mitengo yemafuta enguva refu icharamba iri pamadhora makumi matanhatu padhiramu kana kupfuura kwenguva refu. Izvi zvinodaro nekuti kuratidzwa kukuru kweOccidental kune kugadzirwa kwemafuta eUS kunoreva kuti ine imwe yekuratidzira kukuru kumitengo yemafuta zvichienzaniswa nedzimwe chikamu.
OXY net asset value pamitengo yemafuta akasiyana.
Tingatora sei mukana uyu mukana wekudyara masheya?🧐
Buffett ane mari inosvika mabhiriyoni makumi matatu nemasere emadhora ekuratidzwa kune chikamu chesimba mune yake stock investment portfolio kuburikidza DRM (CVX) y Kumadokero (OXY), uye izvo zvinopa zvakawanda zviratidzo kune chinzvimbo chayo pamitengo yemafuta munguva refu. Kana tikagovana maonero iwayo uye nekuona tariro mumitengo yemafuta uye, kunyanya, US shale, tinogona kuisa mari zvakananga muOccidental Petroleum. Kune rimwe divi, kana iwe uchida kusiyanisa kuratidzwa kune iyo chikamu kuburikidza iShares US Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (IEO) Tinogonawo kuisa mari mu iShares Global Energy ETF (IXC) kuitira kuratidzwa kwepasirese.