Kana iyo S&P 500 iine mwedzi waunofarira, Gunyana zvirokwazvo haizove iyo. Nhoroondo indekisi yagara iine matambudziko panguva ino yegore. Izvi ndizvo zvinozivikanwa pamusika se "September effect." Uye tichifunga nezvakati wandei zviratidzo zvehunyanzvi, mhedzisiro gore rino ingangove yakaoma. Saka muchidzidzo chemazuva ano chekudzidziswa kwako kwekudyara, tichatarisa kuti zvingarevei kumisika uye kuti tingagadzirira sei mwedzi wakaoma...
Chii chinonzi September effect?😨
Kana tikatarisa paavhareji pamwedzi purofiti yeS&P 500 kubvira 1928, tinoona kuti Gunyana rinogadzira sei kudonha kukuru paavhareji, padyo ne1%. Kune mimwe mwedzi miviri chete umo avhareji yakanga isina kunaka, muna February naMay. Kunyangwe kudonha kwayo kuchienzaniswa neayo kwaGunyana kuri kushoma, kusatombobata 0,10%. Mwedzi yasara, paavhareji, yakanyorwa purofiti.
Mhedzisiro yaGunyana yakaitikawo mumisika mikuru yemasheya uye mune mamwe makuru eUS indices. Nasdaq yakaona kuderera kweavhareji ye0,6% mumwedzi kubva payakatanga kutengeserana muna 1971. Uye iyo Dow Jones Industrial Avhareji yakaona kuderera kweavhareji ye0,7% mumwedzi waGunyana pakati pa1950 na2020.
Zvinoda kuziva kuti utera hwakadaro hunodzokororwa gore negore. Tinogona kutarisira kuti vatengesi vatarisire kuderera kuri kuuya uye kuzviisa ivo kuti vatore mukana, semuenzaniso nekutengesa muna Nyamavhuvhu pamberi pehutera hunotarisirwa munaGunyana. Nekudaro, kunyangwe mukati memakore makumi maviri neshanu apfuura, iyo S&P 25 yakaenderera mberi nerwendo rwayo rwaGunyana, neavhareji kuderera kwe500%. Muna 0,7, chokwadi, kurasikirwa munaGunyana kwakanyanya kusimba, kurasikirwa ne2021%, mushure memwedzi minomwe yakateedzana yepurofiti.
Chii chinoita kuti kutengesa uku?🩸
Kana utera hwekare hwemusika munaSeptember hwakajeka, zvikonzero zvayo hazvina kujeka. Vamwe vanoti kurasikirwa uku kunoitika apo mamaneja ehomwe huru dzekudyara vanodzoka kubva kuzororo rechirimo vobvisa midziyo yavasingadi. Logic inotiudza kuti mafambiro aya anokonzera kutsva kutengesa kutsva, izvo zvinoita kuti misika idzike. Vamwe vanoti chido chekutengesa chinovaka munguva yezhizha, apo huwandu hwemusika hutete. Uye panewo chimwe chikonzero. Apo vanhu vanodzoka kubva kuzororo rezhizha nezvikwereti zvekadhi rechikwereti kuti vabhadhare, vazhinji vanotarisa kutengesa mamwe masheya kuti vabhadhare.
Chii chingaitika munaGunyana?🤦♂️
Chii chichapesvedzera masheya zvakanyanya munaGunyana ino ichave iyo Federal Reserve uye iri kuuya mubereko sarudzo sezvavanoedza kudzora iyo inflation yenyika pasina kubvisa hupfumi hwose. Kukwira kukuru-kupfuura-kwaitarisirwa kungangoendesa stock yakaderera. Kukwira kudiki kungangoendesa stock kumusoro. Ngatitarisei pa200 nguva inofamba pakati (yellow line). Ichi chiratidzo chinobatsira chekudzidziswa kwedu kwekudyara nekuti inotibatsira kuona mafambiro enguva refu uye shanduko dzinogona kuitika munzira.
Ivhareji inofamba inoshandawo sekutsigira kana kushorwa kweasset, munyaya iyi, S & P 500. Pa chati tinogona kuona kuti S & P 500 (makenduru machena uye matsvuku) akasimuka kusvika kumutsara weyero wevhareji inofamba, asi Iye haasati akwanisa kuikunda kusvika pari zvino. Mune mamwe mazwi, iyo 200-mazuva ekufamba avhareji inoita senge ichiita senge yekuramba nhanho yeS&P 500. Trend mitsetse ndiyo imwe inobatsira kwazvo tekinoroji chishandiso chekudzidziswa kwako kwekudyara. Inotibatsira kuongorora mitengo munguva pfupi uye kwenguva refu. Tinogona kufunga mutsara wemaitiro unobatanidza zvingangoita mapoinzi maviri pachati uye unowanzo wedzerwa kuti tione kwatinogona kuwana kuramba uye kutsigirwa mune ramangwana. Mutsetse wemaitiro (mutsvuku) unotanga kubva pahupamhi hwaNdira 2022, unobatanidza nekudzikira kwepamusoro kwaKurume 2022 uye woibata zvakare kusvika ku4.337 mapoinzi musi waNyamavhuvhu 16. Akakwanisa kuswedera pedyo, asi haana kukwanisa kukunda iyi nhanho yekupikisa.
Iye zvino zvatakaona maturusi maviri anobatsira ekudzidziswa kwekudyara kwedu, taona kuti iyo 200 nguva inofamba pakati pepakati iri kuita sei sekurwisa kurova, sekunge iyo downtrend line yakarambwa kubva kumusoro kwe2022. Mune mamwe mazwi, iyo September mhedzisiro. zvimwe vachave vachiri vapenyu gore rino.
Tingashandisa sei mukana uyu? 🧐
Gunyana ingori mwedzi mumwe chete wegore, uye kana tarisiro yedu iri pakudyara kwenguva refu, mafambiro epamusika epamwedzi haafaniri kutinetsa. Ehe, kana uchinetseka nezve mukana wekuti musika urambe uchirasikirwa mumavhiki masere anotevera, isu tine mukana wekutora mukana wekufamba kwenguva pfupi uku. Semuenzaniso, tinogona kupfupisa ETF SPDR S & P 500 (SPY) kana mu Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ).
Kana iyo S&P 500 ikakwanisa kupaza nepakati pemazuva mazana maviri ekufamba pakati uye iyo bearish maitiro atakadhirowa pamusoro, izvo zvinogona kutiudza kuti musika unogona kunge wakagadzirira kutanga uptrend. Rangarira kudzokorora rairo yatakakupa yekudzidziswa kwako kwekudyara. Iwe unogona kushandisa zviratidzo izvi segwara rekutanga mazinga ekupinda nekubuda.