Ko rally yasvika yekuisa mari mumasheya?

Iyo S&P 500 yakadzikira 13% gore rino, uye pamwe wakazviwana uri mumamiriro ekusagadzikana, wakamirira kuona kana yako stock investment ichiratidza zviratidzo zvehupenyu kana kudonha mberi. Zvakanaka, usamirire zvakare: iwo masaini ari pasi pemhino dzedu, uye mamwe masheya anogona kubatsirwa kubva kune chero kupora kupfuura mazhinji.

Ndezvipi zviratidzo zvehupenyu zvakaratidzwa nekudyara mumasheya?⚠️

MunaEpril naMay, ndiko kuti, mwedzi miviri yekutanga yekota yechipiri, vaongorori vebhangi rekudyara vakaderedza mihoro yavo pachiyero chechikamu (EPS) kumakambani eS&P 500 neavhareji ye1,3%. Izvozvo zvichienzaniswa neavhareji yekucheka kwe2% ikozvino mukota mumakore mashanu apfuura, uye avhareji ye3% pamusoro pekupedzisira 10. Izvo zvinoita kuti kota iyi icheke zvishoma, chiratidzo chakanaka chekambani..investment in shares.

Chimwe chiratidzo chakanaka chekudyara kwemari: vaongorori vanga vachisimudza fungidziro yavo yeEPS (ne0,3% paavhareji) kwehafu yechipiri yegore. Yekutanga-kota EPS inokwira kubva pamihoro mwaka inoshamisa, uye fungidziro yemuhoro yevaongorori ya2022 yakakwira ingangoita 1% mumwedzi miviri yadarika.

Asi, ko inflation uye mitengo yemhindu?🎈

Tichifunga nezvemamiriro ekunze ehupfumi hwazvino anotongwa nekukwira kwemitengo yemhindu, kukwira kwemitengo yakakwira, uye hondo yeRussia muUkraine, tinogona kufunga kuti kutsauswa kwegore rino kuchaperekedzwa nekudzikira kwefungidziro. Asi nekufanotaura kweEPS kukwira uye kugovera mitengo kudonha (zvinoreva kuti mutengo-kune-mubairo chiyero (PER) yadonha), kuisa mari muUS stock ikozvino inomiririra mukana uri nani kupfuura watingadai takava nawo mwedzi yapfuura.

Zvakare, mune ongororo yatakaburitsa muna Kubvumbi tinokurudzira kuti inflation yakanga yadarika nhongonya yayo. Izvi zvinogona kureva kuti mubereko weramangwana unokwira gore rino uye rinotevera hauzove wakakura sezvakatarisirwa nevamwe vanoisa mari. Uye sezvo zvikwereti zvepamusoro zvinowanzoita kuti kuisa mari mumatokari kusanyanya kunakidza pane zvimwe zvinhu, mitengo yakaderera inogona kupa mashizha kuwedzera.

Isu tinotarisana sei nemamiriro ekudyara mumasheya?🔍

Tinogona kutora nzira ine-mativi maviri, tichitarisa pakudyara muUS stocks nekukurumidza uye mhando. Momentum yakakosha nekuda kwekukwira kuri kuita fungidziro dzemihoro, kana zvikazoitika. Zvinowanzoteverwa nekukwira kwemitengo yemasheya apo makambani anoshuma mihoro. Uye hunhu hwakakosha nekuti gore rino kutengeswa kunogona kutipa mikana yekudyara mumasheya emakambani e "yepamusoro-soro", kureva, avo vane rekodhi rekodha yepamusoro uye yakagadzikana purofiti, pamutengo wakaderera.

Kuti tiise mari padivi rakachengeteka, tinogona kutarisa zvikamu uko vaongorori vari kukwidza mari yekufungidzira zvakanyanya. Panguva ino, chikamu simba, zvinhu, indasitiri, real estate uye mari ndizvo zvinofarirwa. Vaongorori vanotenda kuti zvikamu izvi zvichaita zvirinani pane zvavakafungidzira mwedzi miviri yapfuura.

¿Isu tinotora sei mukana uyu mukana wekudyara masheya?🧩

Kune ma ETF asingaverengeki anotitendera kutenga mune imwe neimwe yezvikamu izvi. Kungotaura zvishoma, tinogona kuisa mari mu Energy Sarudza Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) yekuratidzwa kwekudyara muUS simba indasitiri masheya, iyo Materials Sarudza Sector SPDR Fund (XLB) kutenga muUS zvinhu chikamu; iye Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) kune veAmerica maindasitiri; uye Kwemari Sarudza Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) yezvemari yeUS, kusanganisira zvivakwa.

Isu tinoita ongororo nechishandiso chemahara finviz, kwatinotarisa makambani makuru eUS ($ 10.000+ bhiriyoni yemusika cap) ane yakanaka mhando metrics:

1. Operating margin inopfuura 25%
2. Dzokera paEquity (ROIC) uye Positive Payout Ratios
3. Kukura kwekutengesa kweanopfuura 10% pagore kwemakore mashanu apfuura.

Isuwo tinoenzanisa nekuita kwemutengo wemugove, tichitsvaga makambani ane zvikamu zvakadonha 20% kana kupfuura gore rino kuti aite kuti rondedzero iende kumakambani makumi maviri uko kungave nemukana wekudyara kwemasheya izvozvi.