Inopfuura hafu yemakambani muS&P 500 vakatotaura mhedzisiro yavo yekota, uye zvese zvafamba zvinoshamisa. Ichokwadi kuti vanga vachirwisana nekukwira kwemitengo kwakakwira uye kukwira kwemhindu kunoramba kuchikwira.Asi pave painewo zvimwe zvikonzero zvinoita kuti vanoisa mari vanzwe vaine tariro, nokudaro kukwira kusingatarisirwi kwemari yemastock. Saka ngatitarisei kunhau dzakanaka kubva mumwaka uno wemari, macaveats ekuti tirambe tichifunga, uye pakamira mari yemasheya mune ramangwana ...
Sei vanoisa mari vachinzwa vane tariro kudaro?👍
Mari inowanikwa uye purofiti yakakura muzvikamu zvakawanda📈
Iyo S&P 500 yakaona mari yepasirese uye purofiti ichikura 16% uye 9%, zvichiteerana, zvichienzaniswa nenguva yakafanana gore rapfuura, zvichiratidza kuti makambani akatarisana nemamiriro ezvinhu akaoma. Uye kunyange zvazvo mari muzvikamu zve chikamu chesimba (avo vakabatsirwa nekukwira kwemitengo yemagetsi) kwave kuri mutyairi mukuru wenhamba idzi, haisi iyo chete: mari yezvikamu zvose yakakura, uye purofiti yezvikamu zve7 yakawedzera. Muchokwadi, kunyangwe tikasabvisa mhedzisiro yakanaka yechikamu chesimba, mari yemakambani eAmerica inoramba ichikura.
Kuisa mari mumasheya kwaona mari yainowana uye purofiti ichikura. Kunobva: Morgan Stanley
Maresults anga asina kushata sezvaitarisirwa😏
Vagadziri vemari vanowanzotarisa zvishoma panhamba dzakasvibirira uye nezvimwe pamusoro pekuti nhamba idzodzo dzinofananidzwa sei nezvinotarisirwa nemusika. Mhedzisiro yekota yechipiri kusvika ikozvino yakajeka. Kuisa mari mumasheya kwaita zviri nani pane zvaifungwa nevanoongorora. Muchokwadi, iwe unogona kuona pazasi kuti 52% yemakambani akarova zvakanyanya fungidziro, nepo 12% chete yakave nekushamisika kwakashata.
S&P chikamu chechipiri mhinduro. Kunobva: Goldman Sachs
Makambani anoenderera mberi nekudyara mukukura💪
Makambani 'capital expenditures (capex) inowanzova nzira yakanaka yekuona kuti makambani ane hanya nezveramangwana. Uye maererano Goldman Sachs, makambani akawedzera pamwe chete zvirongwa zvavo zvecapex kubva pakatanga mwaka wemari. Izvi zvinoratidza kuti vane chivimbo chekuti chero zvipingamupinyi mukukura ndezvenguva pfupi, uye kuti mamiriro ehupfumi ari nani achadzoka munguva pfupi.
Matambudziko api atingasangana nawo?
Pane zviratidzo zvedambudziko pasi pepamusoro🕳️
Kana mihoro yekuvandudza yauya pamusoro pezvaitarisirwa, imhaka yekuti vanoongorora vanga vatodzikisa tarisiro iyoyo zvakanyanya. Uye nepo makambani mazhinji achirovawo zvakanyanya fungidziro yavo, vanozviita kanenge kota yega yega. Yakajairika tsika yekusavimbisa uye nekupfuura-kupa. Takatoona kudzikira: 52% yemakambani, paavhareji, akakunda fungidziro mwaka uno wemihoro, zvichienzaniswa ne62% muzvikamu zvina zvapfuura. Muchokwadi, kana tikatarisa kumashure pane chati iri pamusoro, tinoona kuti kota iyi mibairo yakashata kupfuura ina yapfuura. Uye iwo manhamba haana kana kugadziridzwa inflation ...
Mamiriro ehupfumi anogona kubva pakuipa kuenda pakuipisisa🌡️
Kunyange zvazvo inflation uye kuwedzera kwezvibereko zvakagadzira mamiriro ehupfumi akaoma muchikamu chechipiri, zvinhu zvingangowedzera kuoma muchikamu chechitatu nechina. Izvi zvinodaro nekuti kuwedzera kukuru kwemitengo yemubereko neFederal Reserve kuchatora nguva kukanganisa hupfumi, kudzora uye kutonhora kwehupfumi. Uye kana hupfumi hwakabatana, izvi zvichatora matambudziko kumakambani eAmerica: purofiti yemakambani yadonha avhareji ye13% mukudonha kwapfuura.
Kukwira kwechibereko kweFed kwakachinja nzira yekudyara mari. Kunobva: Morgan Stanley
Vanoisa mari vanogona kunge vaine tarisiro zvakanyanya🙄
Vanoisa mari vanogona kunge vakaderedza zvavaitarisira, asi vanoramba vaine tariro. Vanofanotaura kuti purofiti ichakura ne6,7% muchikamu chechitatu, 6,7% muchina uye 8,9% muna 2022. nhamba yekuvandudzwa kune analyst estimates) yakatotanga kuderera. Icho hachisi chiratidzo chakanaka nekuti inodzikira amplitude (yebhuruu mutsara) kazhinji inotiudza kuti mwedzi gumi nemiviri inotevera yekukura kwemari ichadonha (yellow line). Kana chimiro ichi chichibata gore rino, pane mukana wekuti makambani achasarudza kubvisa nhau dzavo dzose dzakaipa kamwechete kuti agadzirire zviri nani 12. Izvozvo zvinogona kukurumidza kuderera.
Kudzikira kwehupamhi hwekudzokororwa kwemuhoro kazhinji kunotangira kudzikira kweEPS fungidziro yekukura. Kunobva: Morgan Stanley
Saka stock investing ichaendepi?🤷♂️
Kushata kwemamiriro ehupfumi kuchaita kuti zviome kuchengetedza kudzoka uku mumakore maviri anotevera. Uye kana mihoro yakadzikira zvakanyanya pane yaitarisirwa mukuvandudza kuri kuuya, izvi zvinogona kudzikisira manzwiro emudyaridzi uye kutyaira kukosha kwekudyara kwemasheya pasi. Nemamwe manzwi, njodzi dzepazasi dzakakura kupfuura zvinogona kukwirisa, kunyanya zvichipihwa tarisiro yevanoisa mari.Saka kana wauya pano uchitsvaga chiratidzo chekutenga dip, tine hurombo kukuodza mwoyo asi ikozvino haisi nguva yakakodzera. . Icho chokwadi ndechekuti isu tichaona mitengo uye tarisiro yemuhoro ichidzika kusvika padanho rinonyatsoratidza njodzi yekudzikira kwenguva refu, kana isu takamirira humbowo hwekuti makambani anogona kubata nharaunda yakaipa. . Hatisati tava kuona. Zvichakadaro, unenge uchida kuchengetedza nzvimbo dzakasiyana siyana uye yakasimba, yakavakirwa kuti isamirire chero nharaunda, senge ino. Kana izvo zvichireva kurasikirwa nepurofiti nekuchengetedza nekudyara kwemasheya edu kana misika ichikwira, hachisi chinhu chikuru. Pane dzimwe nguva dzaunofanirwa kutora njodzi, uye nguva dzaunofanirwa kungwarira uye kudzikisira kurasikirwa kwako. Parizvino, sarudzo yakanakisa ndeye kungwarira.