Inflation muUS yakwira zvakanyanya kudarika zvaitarisirwa nenyanzvi dzezvehupfumi. Vazhinji vemariyori vave kunetsekana nezve mukana wekuti Fed ichaita zvakanyanyisa, ichikwidza mitengo yemubereko zvekuti inosundira hupfumi uye kudyara kwemasheya mukudonha kunotyisa. Nechikonzero ichi, bhanga rekudyara Goldman Sachs rakaongorora kuti mamiriro angasvike papi pakudyara mumasheya eUS.
Mamiriro acho akashata sei pakudyara mari mumasheya eUS?🕵️
Vashandi vaitarisira inflation Hupfumi hweUS hungadai hwakatendeuka ndokutanga kuzorora zhizha rino, asi muna Chikumi mamiriro acho akangowedzera kupisa. Nhamba iri kukura yavo yava kubheja kuti US Federal Reserve (Fed) ichakwidza mhindu nechikamu chimwe muzana svondo rinouya kuti irambe ichiedza kurwisa inflation.
Tarisiro yekukura kwekudyara muUS stocks yakawana 1,6% mukota yekutanga yegore. Kufembera kwazvino kunoratidza kuti haisi kuzobvumirana zvakare mukota yechipiri, kudzivirira "technical recession" parizvino. Asi kunetseka kwevaisiri vemari ndeyekuti kukwira kwemitengo yemumba kunodonhedza kukwereta uye kushandisa, uye kusundira hupfumi mukuderera mune chero zvipi. Nemamwe mashoko, kuderera kwehupfumi kunoratidzika kunge kusingadzivisiki.
Izvi zvinorevei kumakambani eAmerica?🧭
Zvinoenderana nekuongorora kwaGoldman mamiriro, mihoro yemakambani eS&P 500, sekuyerwa ne. mihoro pamugove (EPS), yaizodonha 11% muna 2023 zvichienzaniswa nehuwandu hwe2022. Ndizvo kana mari muUS stocks zvibvumirano zvine mwero gore rinouya, ndiko kuti, kana kudzikira kwepakati kukaitika. Goldman anoona mukana we30% wekuderera kwehupfumi hweUS mugore rinotevera uye mukana we50% mumakore maviri anotevera. Nekudaro, iyo Fed yakagadzirira kusundira izvi zvisingaite kumusoro.
Zvemamiriro ezvinhu, mumasere eUS kudzikira kubva 1970, kudzoka kubva mukudyara muS&P 500 stocks kwadonha avhareji ye14%. Kudonha kwe11% kwepurofiti kwaizoenderana nekuderera kwehupfumi. Goldman anofungidzira kuti mihoro yemakambani eS&P mazana mashanu icharamba yakagadzikana mukuderera kwehupfumi, asi iyo purofiti iri kudzikira ndiyo inokonzera kudzikira kweEPS.
Kana ari maindasitiri ega ega, kuisa mari mumasheya zvikamu zvecyclical Ivo vanowanzo sangana nekurasikirwa kukuru kwepurofiti mukuderera kwehupfumi. Izvi zvinoreva kuti kuisa mari muvatengi discretionary, maindasitiri uye zvigadzirwa zvemasheya zvinogona kukanganisa. Kune rumwe rutivi, kuisa mari muzvikamu kudzivirira zvikamu Vanopembedza zita ravo. Zvishandiso, hutano hwehutano, uye zvigadzirwa zvevatengi zvinowanzowedzera purofiti panguva yekuderera. Panguva ino, mamwe makambani ezvekudyara evatengi haazove nerombo rakanaka. Kukwira kwemitengo kwakakwira kwakwidza mitengo, zvichireva purofiti, uye nekudaro purofiti, ingangodonha.
Izvi zvinorevei pakudyara muUS stocks?⚖️
Mune mamiriro ekuderera kweGoldman, iyo S&P 500 yaizodonha kusvika pamakumi matatu nemazana mashanu mapoinzi panopera 3.150, ingave iri 2022% kudzikira kubva padanho rayo razvino. Kana bhangi rakarurama, taizoona kuderera kwemutengo we "peak-to-trough" ye17%. Izvi zvakaipisisa kupfuura nhoroondo yekuderera kweavhareji ye34%, asi inoenderana neavhareji yekuderera kwemusika webheya kubvira Hondo Yenyika II. Nezve mamiriro, Goldman yazvino S&P 30 fungidziro yekupera kwegore i500, kana 4.300% yakakwira pane yazvino mazinga.
Mukana upi watinawo pano?🎰
Izvo zviri pachena ndezvekuti, mukuderera kwehupfumi, kuisa mari mumasheya muzvikamu zvekudzivirira kunowanzo kuunza mhedzisiro yakanaka. Uye kana vatengesi vakawanda vachitenda kuti imwe iri kuuya, saka inogona kunge yatove pano kana zvasvika pamusika wemasheya. Naizvozvo, tinogona kufambisa mari yedu mumasheya eUS takananga kune zvinoshandiswa, hutano hwehutano uye zvikamu zvevatengi. Pane zvisingaverengeki mari yekuchinjana-yekutengesa (ETFs) inogona kutibatsira, asi zvitatu izvi ndizvo zvinogona kutipa purofiti yakanyanya kunaka: Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU), Nhoroondo ye Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT) uye Vanguard Mutengi Zvishoma ETF (VDC).
Asi iyo yepamusoro bhenefiti iyo zvikamu izvi zvinogona kutipa inogona kutiodza mwoyo, sezvo ichigona kudonha mumashoko akakwana. Imwe nzira yekuedza kuunza purofiti yakakwana ndeyekuita mari yedu mumasheya kana ETFs emakambani anodzivirira kana zvikamu uye kupfupisa iyo S&P 500. Nenzira iyi, isu tichabatsirwa nemusiyano wepurofiti pakati pezviviri.