Ma hope o ka pilikia e kuʻi nei a ke komo nei i ka GDP o nā ʻāina āpau, nā lāʻau e like me ka mea i lawe i kahi kuhikuhi counterintuitive. ʻO nā "manaʻo" o ke kālā e nā Central Banks me he mea lā ua hoʻoikaika i ka hoʻihoʻi hou ʻana mai o nā mākeke waihona. Eia nō naʻe, nui nā leo i hāpai ʻia i ke ao ʻana no ka mea maʻamau ʻole a me ka noʻonoʻo ʻole o kēia mau hopena kūleʻa. Inā ʻaʻole, ua ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o kekahi mau lālā ma mua o ka mea i manaʻo ʻia, a ʻo nā mea ʻē aʻe ʻaʻole nui loa. ʻO kēia ʻano o ke ola ʻana ua alakaʻi i kekahi o nā kānaka kālailai e wānana e like me ke ʻano K, a ʻaʻole ma L, V, a i ʻole pehea e ʻōlelo ʻia ai nā huapalapala like ʻole o ka pīʻāpā e wehewehe pehea e hiki ai. I ke ʻano o K, ua manaʻo ʻia e wehewehe i ka polarity e kū ma waena o nā ʻāpana, ʻo kekahi o nā mea lanakila ka ʻenehana ʻenehana. Akā, ʻoiaʻiʻo kēia hoʻōla?
Nui nā mea hoʻopukapuka, nā loiloi ʻenehana a me nā loiloi kumu, e nalo i kekahi mau ʻano hana o kahi hui o nā waihona. ʻO kēia mau mea e pili ana i kekahi e like me Zoom Video Communications, nona ka hoʻonui ʻana mai ka hoʻomaka o ka makahiki nona ka waiwai i $ 68 i hōʻea i kekahi mau lā i hala $ 478 no kēlā me kēia mahele, kahi hoʻonui o 600% wale nō. ʻO Tesla kekahi laʻana maikaʻi loa, nona ka waihona mai $ 84 i ka hoʻomaka o ka makahiki (Hoʻokaʻawale ʻia) i ke kālepa ʻana ma luna o $ 500 i kekahi mau lā i hala aku nei, kahi piʻi o 500%. He aha ana lā? Hiki paha iā lākou ke lanakila a ua hoʻokahuli ʻia paha? Me ka hele ʻole ʻana i loko o ka ʻikepili kālā o nā ʻoihana i ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi ma mua o ka awelika, hiki iā mākou ke koho e loaʻa i kahi ʻike honua hou aʻe kahi o nā mākeke e kū nei. No kēia e hoʻohana mākou i ka «Buffet Index», a mākou e kamaʻilio ai i kēia lā.
ʻO
He aha ka papa kuhikuhi Buffet?
ʻO nā ʻikepili nui loa ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i ʻike ʻia e ke kaiāulu hoʻopukapuka holoʻokoʻa. Aia ma waena o lākou ka Nasdaq 100, e hoʻopili ana i nā waihona waiwai nui he 100 i ka ʻoihana ʻenehana, ka Dow Jones Industrial Average 30, kahi e ana i ka ulu ʻana o nā ʻoihana lehulehu palena nui he 30 i loko, a me ka S&P 500, kahi o ia ʻo ka hapa nui o ka hoʻokele waiwai o ʻAmelika Hema a hui pū i kekahi mau hui nunui he 500. Eia nō naʻe, aia kekahi mau ʻike ʻē aʻe i ʻike ʻole ʻia, akā ʻaʻole mea nui iki no kēlā. ʻO ka papa kuhikuhi kahi e kau ai ka haʻilula e unuhi i ka papa kuhikuhi Buffet ʻo ia ka helu ʻo Wilshire 5000.
ʻO ka Wilshire 5000 ka papa kuhikuhi ma nā papa inoa o nā ʻoihana kaulana āpau, me ka hoʻokaʻawale ʻana i nā ADR, nā ʻoihana palena a me nā ʻoihana liʻiliʻi. Hiki ke loaʻa ma lalo o ka ticker "W5000". ʻO ka Wilshire, ua loaʻa kahi ola kupaianaha e like me kāna analogues. ʻO kēia āpau i kahi pōʻaiapili kahi i hoʻopaʻa ʻia ai nā paʻa, nā pani ʻana i nā hale kūʻai, a me nā pōʻino pili waiwai ma muli o ka hoʻopau ʻia ʻana o ka pōʻaiapuni hoʻokele waiwai "kūlohelohe". ʻO kēia mau hanana āpau e hopena ana i nā mea nui a ʻaʻole kūpono ʻole i ka GDP o nā ʻoihana ʻokoʻa.
ʻO ka hihia kū hoʻokahi e pili ana iā mākou i kēia ʻatikala a nāna i hoʻokumu i nā mea haʻalulu ʻo ia kēlā ka papa kuhikuhi Buffet, kahi e ana ai i ka lakio o ka huina nui o ka nui ʻo Wilshire 5000 i ka GDP (Gross Domestic Product) ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ma nā kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe loa. No laila, ua hana kēia index a hiki i kēia lā ma ke ʻano he wānana nui o nā kūleʻa waiwai nui loa. ʻO kahi laʻana, ka pilina nui i lawe ʻia i loko o ka huʻa kiko-com. I mea e ʻike ai, e ʻike pehea e helu ai.
Pehea e helu ai i ka Papa Kuhikuhi Buffet?
Maʻalahi loa ke ala e helu ai i ka Kuhikuhi Buffet. E pili ana i ka lawe ʻana ka huina capitalization waiwai o ka Wilshire 5000 a hoʻokaʻawale iā ia e ka US GDP. ʻO ka helu hopena ka hōʻike pākēneka o ka pilina i ʻōlelo ʻia, a e hōʻike iā ia ma ke ʻano he pākēneka, a pehea ia e hāʻawi maoli ʻia ai, hoʻonui ʻia ia e 100.
E wehewehe pono i ka hopena, pono mākou maopopo i ka pākēneka e haʻi mai nei iā mākou. I loaʻa kahi alakaʻi a me / a i ʻole kuhikuhi, ua lawa nā pilina aʻe.
- ʻO kahi pākēneka ma lalo o 60-55%. ʻO ia paha ʻemi nā ʻeke. ʻO ka haʻahaʻa o ka pākēneka, ʻo ka nui o ka undervaluation i loaʻa iā lākou.
- ʻO kahi pākēneka ma kahi o 75%. ʻAʻole pipiʻi a ʻemi hoʻi, ʻo ia ka awelika mōʻaukala. E kaulike kaulike ka mākeke. Inā maikaʻi ke kaiapuni, e piʻi paha i luna nā waihona i kēia hanana. Ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, inā e lilo i ke ʻano ʻenemi i kumu, hiki i nā kumukūʻai haʻahaʻa ke hiki.
- ʻO kahi pākēneka i ʻoi aku ma mua o 90-100%. Aia kekahi e makemake i ka laina 90, a ʻo nā poʻe ʻē aʻe i ka laina 100. Akā pehea e hiki ai ke hoʻokaʻawale ʻia, i kēia mau hiʻohiʻona hoʻomaka nā ʻeke e uku. ʻO ke kiʻekiʻe o ka pākēneka, ʻoi aku ka nui o kā lākou.
I ka hāʻule ʻana o ka kiko com, aia nā ʻeke ma 137% a hāʻule i 73% (kona awelika mōʻaukala hiki iā mākou ke ʻōlelo). I ka pilikia kālā, aia nā waihona ma kahi o 105% a hāʻule i 57% (ʻo ia hoʻi, ua hoʻowahāwahā ʻia.
Ma hope o nā wānana ... Aia mākou i hea i kēia manawa?
He kapikala nui kā ka Wilshire 5000 ma kahi o $ 34 trillion. I kekahi mau lā i hala aku nei ua loaʻa ʻo ia i poʻo ma 36 trillion! ʻO kēia i ke kuanaʻike o ka GDP o USA i kēia manawa ma muli o ka hāʻule o ka hoʻokele waiwai i 19 trillion hāʻawi iā mākou i kahi waiwai o 174% (34 trillion i hoʻokaʻawale ʻia e 19 trillion i hoʻonui ʻia e 5). Ua hoʻonui ʻia paha nā waiwai kūʻai? ʻO ka pane a priori a me ke kānalua ʻole e ʻae. ʻAʻole ma mua, ʻaʻole hoʻi i ka huʻa kiko-com me kāna loiloi ma kahi o 137%, ua hōʻea lākou i ka moʻolelo o 174%. He aha ka hana a he aha ka mea e hiki iā mākou ke manaʻo?
ʻO Frankly, ma hope o nā makahiki o ka hoʻopukapuka ʻana i ka ʻike, paʻakikī i kekahi manawa ke kali i ka mea e hiki mai ana, akā ke hiki, loaʻa mau iā mākou kahi e nānā ai. He mea hiki nō paha ke kuhikuhi mai nei ka papa kuhikuhi Buffet iā mākou, e like me nā manawa ma mua, o ka hāʻule ʻana o ka makeke kūʻai wā e hiki mai ana. Eia nō naʻe, ke ʻano o kahi hanauna hou o nā mea hoʻopukapuka a me nā speculate, ʻike ʻia ʻo Robinhood ma muli o ke ʻano o nā polokalamu i ʻae i ka hoʻopukapuka kālā ma nā kumu kūʻai haʻahaʻa, e like me ke ʻano o ke ʻano kālā o nā mākeke. ʻO kēia, i hoʻohui ʻia i nā kahe ikaika o ke kālā i nā mākeke a me nā hoʻokele waiwai e nā Central Bank, hāpai pū kekahi i ka hopohopo e pili ana i ka piʻi ʻana o ka hoʻonui kālā, ke neʻe nei i nā ʻoihana waiwai, e hoʻonui i nā kumukūʻai, e hōʻemi ana i ka pilina ma waena o GDP a me ka loaʻa kālā.