Shakka babu cewa mummunar faduwar da ta faru a kasuwanni sakamakon tasirin kwayar cutar ta sanya hannayen jari da yawa a cikin yanayi mai matukar fa'ida don sayayya ta zabi daga yanzu. Ta hanyar nuna kimantawa a cikin kasuwannin daidaiton da ke matse sosai idan aka kwatanta da watannin da suka gabata gabanin faɗaɗa cutar. Duk da farfadowar da ta faru tun daga ƙarshen watan Afrilu kuma hakan ya haifar da godiya ga manyan alamun duniya kusan 20%. Amma tambaya ce ta la'akari da ko lokacin buɗe mukamai don kashi na uku na shekara kuma yana da mahimmanci a ba da fa'ida ga saka hannun jari.
Daga wannan hanyar, yana da matukar dacewa sanin inda za'a saka hannun jari a cikin kwata na uku tunda zai kasance lokacin shekara inda jarin saka jari zai yanke shawara bayan abin da ya faru tare da faɗaɗa coronavirus. Bugu da kari, lokaci ne da yawan cinikayya a kasuwannin hada-hadar hannayen jari ke neman faduwa kasa warwas kuma har ta kai ga hakan na iya sanya mu yin wasa mara kyau a cikin wannan zamanin na wannan bazara ta musamman ga kanana da matsakaitan masu saka jari. Sabili da haka, jiyya a cikin kasuwannin daidaito ya zama ya bambanta game da sauran shekaru kuma wannan yana ɗaya daga cikin abubuwan da za a yi la'akari da su yayin haɓaka kowane dabarun saka hannun jari.
A gefe guda, ba shi da mahimmanci a kimanta don sanin inda za a saka hannun jari a cikin kwata na uku waɗanda sune fannonin da za su iya ɗaukar matsayi. Saboda a zahiri, ba daidai bane a sanya shi a bangaren wutar lantarki sama da na masu yawon bude ido, tunda juyin halittarsa zuwa yanzu ya sha bamban. Saboda haka, dole ne mu tsara inda za mu sanya jarinmu na kasuwar hannun jari kuma ta wannan hanyar mu sami ƙarin tsaro wanda ba za mu sami yanayin da ba a so ba a wannan lokacin na shekara. Inda za'a iya samun sauyi da yawa a cikin ƙimomin da suke ƙididdigar kasuwar kasuwar hannun jari kuma hakan shine bayan duk wani al'amari wanda zai sasanta shawarar da zamu yanke a wannan daidai lokacin.
Na uku na uku: mafi ra'ayin mazan jiya
Matsayi a wannan lokacin na shekara dole ne ya zama mai ra'ayin mazan jiya saboda wannan ba shekara ce ta al'ada ba kamar sauran. Saboda kasancewar ko a kashi na karshe na wannan kwata na uku za a iya samun wani sabon barkewar kwayar cutar da za ta iya haifar da sabon faduwa da wahala a kasuwannin hada-hadar kasa da kasa. A cikin wannan ma'anar, yana da kyau sosai a cikin waɗannan watanni ƙananan da masu saka hannun jari suna da ɗan kariya fiye da sauran lokuta. Saboda mafi kyawun tsarin don kare muradin waɗannan shine zaɓi don amintattun hanyoyin tsaro waɗanda zasu iya ba da ƙarfi ga bayanin kuɗin shiga na jarin saka hannun jari, aƙalla a cikin rubu'in na uku na wannan shekarar wanda yake da alaƙa da duniyar kuɗi.
A cikin wannan yanayin gabaɗaya, wannan rukunin tsaron na tsaro ko na ra'ayin mazan jiya sune waɗanda suka sami tabbataccen rabon riba. Tare da ribar da take tsakanin 5% da 7% kusan. Duk abin da ya faru a kasuwannin daidaito ko ma idan an sake samun wannan ƙwayoyin cuta wanda a ƙarshe ya ƙare har ya shafi tattalin arziƙin ƙasa da ƙasa ta hanyar tashin hankali. Zuwa ga cewa za a iya samun sauyi a cikin manufofin da kowane gwamnatoci ya tsara kuma babu shakka a ƙarshe zai yi tasirin gaske a kasuwanninsu na adalci. Wani abu da yawancin andan ƙanana da matsakaitan masu saka jari ke fargaba, musamman a cikin ƙasarmu kuma wannan ya sa Ibex 35 ya kasance ɗaya daga cikin mafi ƙasƙanci ƙididdiga a yanayin duniya. Musamman tare da sake dawowa cikin kasuwannin hannayen jari tun daga tsakiyar watan Afrilu tunda halayensu ya kasance ƙasa da sauran.
Koma kan bulo?
Wani bangare da za a yi la’akari da shi daga yanzu shi ne abin da ya shafi gaskiyar cewa ƙididdigar ƙasarmu ba ta da ƙima saboda ƙimar su, duk da cewa galibi idan aka samu faɗuwa a waɗannan ƙimomin shi ne cewa waɗannan ƙimomin suna sami wahala daga haɗuwarsu da tasirin kwayar cutar. Tabbas, wannan yana daga cikin abubuwanda za'a yi la'akari dasu don sanya jarin saka hannun jari a cikin wannan kwata na shekara.
Bayan sun gyara farashinsu sosai, kamfanonin gine-ginen da aka lissafa akan daidaito, wannan shekara sun fara hawa sama wanda ya kai su ga dawo da farashin su sashi, kodayake a yanzu dillalai suna da hankali game da ɗaukar matsayin matsayin, kuma sun zaɓi tsayawa a gefe har sai an ba da alamun tabbatacce.
Duk kamfanonin gine-gine da kamfanoni na ƙasa da aka jera akan Ibex 35 sun sami mahimman ra'ayoyi a weeksan makwannin da suka gabata, a lokuta da yawa sama da 20%, kuma a kowane hali tare da kyakkyawan aiki fiye da jerin zaɓaɓɓun da ke samun ribar 17%.
Matsakaicin ribar da aka samu ta hanyar rabon kamfanonin da suka hada da jerin zababbun Mutanen Espanya da suka shafi bangaren gini a cikin watanni goma sha biyu da suka gabata shine 5%, daidai da na sauran bangarorin kamar banki ko wutar lantarki.
Kadan shawarwari a watan Afrilu
Kasuwar hannun jari ta Sipaniya tayi ciniki a ciki Iya samun kudin shiga Yuro miliyan 29.312 a watan Mayu, kaso 4,3% ƙasa da na Afrilu da 27% ƙasa da na wannan watan na shekarar da ta gabata. Adadin kuɗi har zuwa Mayu ya kasance Euro miliyan 189.590, ƙasa da 4,1% ƙasa da shekarar da ta gabata.
Adadin tattaunawar a watan ya kai miliyan 4,24, kashi 39% fiye da na Mayu 2019 kuma kashi 23% ya dara na watan Afrilu. Adadin tattaunawar da aka tara a farkon watanni biyar na shekara ya kai miliyan 22,8, wanda ke wakiltar ci gaban da kaso 47,5% idan aka kwatanta da daidai lokacin na shekarar da ta gabata.
A watan Mayu, kamfanin BME ya kai ga kasuwa a cikin kasuwancin kasuwannin sifaniyan na 73,9%. Matsakaicin matsakaici a watan Mayu ya kasance maki 8,46 a matakin farko na farashin (12,1% mafi kyau fiye da filin ciniki na gaba) da kuma maki 13,37 tare da zurfin € 25.000 a cikin littafin tsari (a 23,4% mafi kyau), a cewar rahoton mai zaman kansa . Wadannan alkaluman sun hada da kasuwancin da aka gudanar a cibiyoyin kasuwancin, duka a cikin littafin tsari na gaskiya (LIT), gami da gwanjo, da kuma kasuwancin da ba na gaskiya ba (duhu) da aka gudanar a wajen littafin.
Raguwar aiki
Bayan raguwar ayyukan da aka yiwa rijista a cikin kasuwar farko sakamakon farkon rikicin Covid-19 a cikin Turai, hayaƙi mai fitarwa a kasuwannin Kafaffen haya Sun murmure bayan dabaru da tsare-tsaren siyan kadara na Tarayyar Turai, Gwamnati, ICO da ECB. Adadin adadin da aka ƙulla a watan Mayu a cikin xedayyadadden Kudin Shiga Yuro miliyan 20.882, wanda ke wakiltar raguwar 29,5% idan aka kwatanta da na watan da ya gabata. Shiga shiga kasuwanci, gami da lamunin Bashi na Jama'a da Kafaffen Kudin Shiga, ya kai euro miliyan 37.801, tare da karin 61,3% idan aka kwatanta da Mayu 2019 da na 22,3% a cikin tarin shekara. Fitaccen daidaitaccen ya tsaya kan euro tiriliyan 1,62, wanda ke nuna karuwar 4,8% ya zuwa wannan shekarar.
Ciniki a kasuwa don Kayan kuɗi a cikin watan Mayu ya karu idan aka kwatanta shi da watan da ya gabata. A nan gaba akan IBEX 35 ya tashi 15,8% kuma a cikin Zabuka akan IBEX 35, 56,4%. A nasu bangare, Kasuwancin Hannun Jari ya haɓaka kasuwancin su da kashi 63,4% da Zaɓuɓɓukan Kuɗi da kashi 31,6%. Tun daga ranar 18 ga Mayu, babu wani haramcin kafa ko ƙara ƙarancin matsakaitan matsayi a cikin amintattun kasuwancin da aka shigar da su cikin kasuwar Sifen. A cikin zama goma ba tare da wannan ma'auni ba, ciniki a kwangilar nan gaba akan IBEX 35 ya karu da 19,5% idan aka kwatanta da irin zaman da aka yi a shekarar da ta gabata.
Zuba jari a cikin Amurka
Takaita harajin da Shugaba Donald Trump ya yi na iya samun tasirin motsa rai da suka yi alkawari, a cewar bayanan gwamnatin da aka fitar a makonnin da suka gabata. A wannan ma'anar, ya kamata a tuna cewa saka hannun jari na kasuwanci a kashi na uku ya faɗi 3%, bayan faɗuwa 1% a cikin kwatancen baya. Wadannan faduwar suna nuna bambanci tare da tsalle-tsalle na 4,4% a cikin farkon kwata da 4,8% idan aka kwatanta da bara.
Raguwar ta zo ne a cikin rashin tabbas na tattalin arziki, wanda yakin cinikin Trump da China ya haifar. Wannan ya haifar da rashin tabbas game da hujjarsa cewa dala biliyan tiriliyan 1,5 na harajin da ya sanya wa hannu a watan Disambar 2017 zai zama ci gaba ga saka hannun jari na kasuwanci, daukar aiki da kuma karin albashi. "Kamfanoni suna zazzagewa a zahiri," in ji shi a lokacin.
Raguwar saka hannun jari na kasuwanci ya hada da fadada kashi 15,3 cikin dari a bangaren gine-gine - wanda ya hada da gina sabbin kaddarori ko karafunan hakar ma'adinai - da kuma raguwar kashi 3,8 cikin dari a harkar kayan aiki, a cewar masu sharhi a Morgan. Stanley. Kashe kudaden jari mai sauki "yana nuni ne da yadda yanayin bunkasar tattalin arzikin duniya ke tafiyar hawainiya da kuma rashin tabbas game da manufofin kasuwanci," masu sharhi a Morgan Stanley sun rubuta Rahoton ya lura da cewa wasu abubuwan da ke haifar da raguwar na iya zama mafi kankantar lokaci. Zuba jari a cikin jirgin sama ya fadi da kashi 80%, wataƙila saboda ƙalubalen da Boeing ya samu tare da jirginsa 737 Max.
Matsalar kasuwancin jari
Shugaban Babban Bankin Tarayya Jerome Powell ya zargi "saurin ci gaban kasashen waje da ci gaban kasuwanci" saboda faduwar da aka samu a harkar kasuwanci. Ya lura cewa Amurka na aiki kan mataki na daya na yarjejeniyar cinikayya da China, wanda "idan aka sanya hannu aka kuma fara aiki da shi, zai iya yin tasirin rage tashin hankalin kasuwanci da rage rashin tabbas, kuma hakan zai zama abu mai kyau. yi imani, don kwarin gwiwar kasuwanci kuma wataƙila aiki akan lokaci. '
Powell ya yi wannan bayanin ne a lokacin da yake sanar da ragin kudin kwata-kwata, amma ya lura cewa hakan na iya tayar da zaune tsaye a nan gaba. Akwai wasu alamun cewa rashin tabbas na iya shiga cikin dakin kwana. Completionarshen yarjejeniyar duniya, galibi alama ce ta amincewa da Shugaba, ya faɗi a zango na uku, tare da jimlar darajar ciniki ta faɗi 21,2% zuwa dala biliyan 622.000 daga dala biliyan 790.000, a cewar Mergermarket. A Amurka, darajar cinikayya ta fadi da 32% zuwa dala biliyan 263.000 daga dala biliyan 387.000.
Tabbatar, ana iya juya yanayin biyu. Rashin tabbas game da kasuwanci na iya raguwa, in da Ofishin wakilin Kasuwancin Amurka ya ce a makon da ya gabata cewa China da Amurka suna gab da kammala yarjejeniya ta ɗaya. A gefe guda, sauran bayanan da aka buga sun kasance masu kyakkyawan fata. Binciken na wata-wata da ADP da Moody's Analytics suka yi ya nuna cewa kamfanoni sun dauki karin ma'aikata 25.000 a watan Oktoba fiye da masana tattalin arziki da Dow Jones ya yi tsammani. Bunkasar yawan kayayyakin cikin gida na Amurka shima ya doke tsammanin, duk da faduwar saka hannun jari na kasuwanci. Ma'aikatar Kasuwanci ta ce Laraba cewa ayyukan tattalin arziki ya karu a cikin kashi 1,9% na shekara-shekara a cikin kwata na farko, wanda ya fi yadda ake tsammani na kashi 1,6%, wanda ke haifar da karfin kashe mabukaci.
Zabe a Amurka
Duk da haka, yayin da zaben na 2020 ke zafafa, lambobin sun baiwa abokan hamayyar Trump kayan yin tir da manufofin sa. Wata mai ba da shawara kan harkokin tattalin arziki ga sanata Elizabeth Warren ta wallafa a shafinta na Tweeter ranar Laraba, "Don da gaske a bunkasa saka jari da kasuwanci, sanya kudi a aljihun mutane don kashewa."
Manyan manufofin tattalin arzikin Warren sun dogara ne a kan sashin cewa da yawa daga dukiyar Amurka an keɓe tsakanin zaɓaɓɓun kamfanoni da attajirai. Shirye-shiryensa sun hada da harajin "dala miliyan-dubu," wanda ke neman a biya harajin 2% a kan kowace dala da wani magidanci ke da sama da dala miliyan 50 da kuma kashi 3% na haraji a kan iyalai da sama da dala biliyan daya. Yana son harajin kamfanoni da kaso 1.000% a kan kowace dala da suka samu sama da dala miliyan 7.
Shirin nasa, da alama, yana girgiza shugabannin kamfanoni ta wata hanyar daban. Masu sharhi akan lamunin Wall Street sun gano hannun jari na kamfanonin kiwon lafiya, na hada-hadar kudi da makamashi a matsayin masu rauni a yayin da suka zaba. Farashin hannun jari da yawa daga cikinsu, ciki har da United Health da Apollo Global, tuni suka faɗi cikin damuwa game da manufofin da take gabatarwa.
Kasuwannin lamuni sun haɗu
Hannayen jari na duniya sun koma gefe, matsin lambar yakin cinikayyar Amurka da China da alamomin jinkirta ci gaban tattalin arzikin duniya. Yawancin bankunan tsakiya da yawa sun yanke kuɗin ruwa a cikin yunƙurin magance tasirin lalacewar ƙarin haraji da ƙananan ayyukan masana'antu. Marketididdigar kasuwannin da ke tasowa sun yi asara mafi girma, yayin da kasuwannin Amurka da Japan suka yi kyau sosai. Duk da yake a gefe guda, ya kamata a lura cewa a ƙarshe an dawo da kasuwannin haɗin gwiwa.
Hannun jarin tsaro ya haɓaka fannoni masu saurin tattalin arziki gaba ɗaya, jagorancin haɗuwa mai ƙarfi tsakanin masu amfani da kamfanonin kamfanoni. Hakanan hajojin kayan masarufi sun sanya babbar riba. Makamashi da kayan masarufi sun ragu yayin da masu saka jari ke damuwa game da lafiyar tattalin arzikin duniya. Hannun kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗe na kuɗi da mabukaci sun kasance masu faɗi.
Hannayen jari sun tashi a cikin kyakkyawan hangen nesa game da tattalin arzikin duniya da kuma samun ribar kamfanoni fiye da yadda ake tsammani. Yawancin alamomin kasuwa da yawa sun sami ci gaba a cikin kwata, duk da tashin hankalin da ke tsakanin Koriya ta Arewa da farkon lokacin guguwa mai halakarwa. Hannayen jari na Turai da kasuwanni masu tasowa sun zarta na Amurka.
Kasuwancin tattalin arziki gabaɗaya sun bayar da mafi girma fiye da ɓangarorin tsaro. Fasahar bayanai, makamashi da kayan jari sun sa kasuwanni sun bunkasa. Hakanan hada-hadar kudi sun ci gaba kan tsammanin karuwar darajar kudin duniya. Bangaren kayayyakin masarufi ya faɗi, tare da raguwar ƙarancin hannun jarin kamfanin taba.
Shugaban Babban Bankin Tarayya Jerome Powell ya zargi "saurin ci gaban kasashen waje da ci gaban kasuwanci" saboda faduwar da aka samu a harkar kasuwanci. Ya lura cewa Amurka na aiki kan mataki na daya na yarjejeniyar cinikayya da China, wanda "idan aka sanya hannu aka kuma fara aiki da shi, zai iya yin tasirin rage tashin hankalin kasuwanci da rage rashin tabbas, kuma hakan zai zama abu mai kyau. yi imani, don kwarin gwiwar kasuwanci kuma wataƙila aiki akan lokaci. '